NY-09, Special Election Thread

[Meeker]

Question: What would the result of this race have been (give percentages) had:

(1) Obama's favorables been 10 points higher.

Now, what would the result be had

(2) Weprin voted against gay marriage.

Weprin would have been sworn in today.

The correct answer is that Weprin would have narrowly lost if he had voted against gay marriage. If Obama's approval ratings were 10 points higher, Weprin would have been sworn in today regardless of his vote on gay marriage.

Bingo!

[NY Jew]

Question: What would the result of this race have been (give percentages) had:

(1) Obama's favorables been 10 points higher.

Now, what would the result be had

(2) Weprin voted against gay marriage.

with out seeing the exact numbers (but based on the info I have, certain % and of reports of very High Orthodox and Russian Turnout) I would either way Weprin wins but I think it would be a lot closer in the case of Weprin still voting for marriage but a friendlily environment.
you can see in the maps that Rego Park and Forrest Hills had many red areas in this race and not in 2008 and that was due mostly to Bucharian Jews showing up because of the marriage vote (this is also assuming he didn't have any other issues gay parades, gay speeches (if you know anything about this race you'll know exactly what I'm talking about) ext.).  In Kew Garden Hills, Forrest Hills, Flatbush I heard reports of very high turnouts.
considering that this district had a low overall turnout It's clear what won this race.

The thing about Obama was very important because that was spread across the whole district (though concentrated in White catholic neighborhoods) so it made the protest vote against marriage redefinition possible.  To see how much Obama's losing the non Orthodox Jewish vote I would have to wait for till I get more precise info.

I repeat for all the people who are to dense to figure it out many Orthodox Jews routinely vote democrat in one race and Republican in another in the same year at 75%+ rates. Weprin would have gotten a lot of orthodox votes if not for the marriage vote which is the whole reason he was picked because the democratic leadership in Queens underestimated the fact that Jews would not only reject one of their own but one who funded more Orthodox organizations then any other politician on any level of government .  He tried to run in the Orthodox Jewish community on that record but he couldn't because of the gay issues. losing the highest voting demographic (it would have been  if there would have been a Orthodox Jew running as a Orthodox Jew in this district) from 70%+ in your camp to 70%+ (wont know the more exact estimates for a while)  in your opponents camp would have more then closed the gap.

[NY Jew]

Question: What would the result of this race have been (give percentages) had:

(1) Obama's favorables been 10 points higher.

Now, what would the result be had

(2) Weprin voted against gay marriage.

Weprin would have been sworn in today.

The correct answer is that Weprin would have narrowly lost if he had voted against gay marriage. If Obama's approval ratings were 10 points higher, Weprin would have been sworn in today regardless of his vote on gay marriage.

in addition to what I said before the demographic that hates Obama (Orthodox Jews) the most in this district would have voted for weprin if not for the marriage

[NY Jew]

in addition to all the people who voted based on marriage almost all the Orthodox media (in general the Orthodox media never asks hard ball questions) was super against Weprin because of marriage (bashing him on everything much more then they normally would because of that vote), all Turner's endorsers (rabbis, politicians, and other leaders )endorsersed him based on marriage.

[NY Jew]

PS Iv'e also heard from very reliable sources (notice this is plural) and it was quisy reported on in the daily news.
That Koch and turner made a secret deal in addition to the M,M and SS that Turner would not use marriage redefinition in this election (unlike what he did last time in the Orthodox communities (though many people last time didn't know who he was because he was running against Weiner)).  If Koch made that deal because he was afraid that this would become a referendum on gay marriage and as we know this district is against it (which would serve him right because now he's a pariah in gay circles more then ever before)

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

R+1!

Lol. I was the first to call it.

[Torie]

Yes, NY Jew, there does appear to have been an especially strong swing in Rego Park to Turner (I noticed that before and should have mentioned it, but was pressed for time when I posted, and forgot), along with the Catholic areas in the NW corner (Middletown), where you see a lot more red than in 2008. I wonder why Rego Park voted for Obama but not Welprin, when the rest of the Orthodox areas also voted for McCain. I suspect in white areas there was a swing everywhere (including upper middle class fairly Jewish more secular Forest Hills), it was just a matter of degree.  I don't know about the Hispanic precincts, as to whether they swung, or just didn't vote much. They still went for Welprin.

The white Catholic areas of Brooklyn of course swung massively to Turner. They went for McCain, but this time by much larger margins.

[NY Jew]

in the rest of far Rockway outside of the 9th CD which overlaps with the 23 Assembly district (many of it Orthodox) went  3178 to 491 in favor of Philip Goldfeder the democrat (and there was a last minute marriage issue regarding Goldfeder )

If anyone thinks that Orthodox Jews will not vote for a democrat the same area went 5616-3541 for Obama

the 2 most Orthodox EDs combined in this area went 1039-96 McCain

I think this proves that Orthodox Jews this year would still vote democrat

[NY Jew]

Yes, NY Jew, there does appear to have been an especially strong swing in Rego Park to Turner (I noticed that before and should have mentioned it, but was pressed for time when I posted, and forgot), along with the Catholic areas in the NW corner (Middletown), where you see a lot more red than in 2008. I wonder why Rego Park voted for Obama but not Welprin, when the rest of the Orthodox areas also voted for McCain. I suspect in white areas there was a swing everywhere (including upper middle class fairly Jewish more secular Forest Hills), it was just a matter of degree.  I don't know about the Hispanic precincts, as to whether they swung, or just didn't vote much. They still went for Welprin.

The white Catholic areas of Brooklyn of course swung massively to Turner. They went for McCain, but this time by much larger margins.

Bucharians didn't vote in that election (relativity new to the country and has no political experience ) this election for some reason there got involved in the race (I wonder if it has to due with that thing that I keep getting made fun of over) massive registering campaign there from what I heard.

[NY Jew]

here's the amount Turner (not Turner's overall vote) won over Weprin in the combined majority Orthodox EDs by Assembly seat (based on these results I don't see how Weprin wouldn't have won if there was no gay issues (I gave up after these ADs because it's clear to me that this was enough even with mild Turnout in other Jewish areas))
44 607 votes
45 1277 votes
48 604 votes

the reason I'm so confident that this is so because with out Weprin's homo problems there is 0 chance Turner wins the Orthodox vote.

[asexual trans victimologist]

the reason I'm so confident that this is so because with out Weprin's homo problems there is 0 chance Turner wins the Orthodox vote.

homo problems

Yup, no slavering hatred and sin here, just the shining love of God. Yessirree.

[NY Jew]

the reason I'm so confident that this is so because with out Weprin's homo problems there is 0 chance Turner wins the Orthodox vote.

homo problems

Yup, no slavering hatred and sin here, just the shining love of God. Yessirree.

when they decide to do teshuva we'll talk right now there in a mereda against HKB.
(it wasn't just the marriage that lost him votes it was also his speech and parade marches)
and just to let you know if this district is gerrymandered you will do to the democratic party what Coollidge did to the Republican party (which crystallized under that Roosevelt yemach shemo)

[krazen1211]

http://m.nypost.com/p/news/local/brooklyn/weiner_gets_brush_off_a1vNTFMYqECUbAxvnhz48M

“Weiner left his toothbrush behind! It literally says ‘Anthony’ on it,” an insider said.

Turner’s wife, Peggy, a registered nurse, personally requested that congressional cleaners be brought in to scrub the bathroom, the insider said.

There also was talk of replacing the carpeting and Weiner’s office chair, the insider said.

“I do have a Twitter account. But I will use it fully clothed,” Turner quipped.




Lol.

[asexual trans victimologist]

the reason I'm so confident that this is so because with out Weprin's homo problems there is 0 chance Turner wins the Orthodox vote.

homo problems

Yup, no slavering hatred and sin here, just the shining love of God. Yessirree.

when they decide to do teshuva we'll talk right now there in a mereda against HKB.
(it wasn't just the marriage that lost him votes it was also his speech and parade marches)
and just to let you know if this district is gerrymandered you will do to the democratic party what Coollidge did to the Republican party (which crystallized under that Roosevelt yemach shemo)

...which...which aspect of what Coolidge did to the Republican Party? Do you mean leading it to one EC landslide and setting up another? Indirectly leading to a crushing defeat later on with my economic policies? Making it more conservative somehow? And what does any of this have to do with the shape or demographics of NY-09?

While I can parse most of what you're saying, your random use of Hebrew nouns (other than teshuva, which should be obvious to anyone) also isn't helping your case, as it makes you seem insular.

[Torie]

I need a Yiddish dictionary! 

[Governor Scott]

Woah, we're still talking about this?

[Torie]

Woah, we're still talking about this?

We just can't seem to nail down precisely exactly where the lines on the Venn Diagram go delimiting the nexus between certain Jews and gay nuptials. It will probably take another several pages to get that most important job done. Deal with it! 

[Former Moderate]

homo problems

Lord knows I got those.

[asexual trans victimologist]

homo problems

Lord knows I got those.

I got 99 problems but gay marriage ain't one.

[krazen1211]

here's the amount Turner (not Turner's overall vote) won over Weprin in the combined majority Orthodox EDs by Assembly seat (based on these results I don't see how Weprin wouldn't have won if there was no gay issues (I gave up after these ADs because it's clear to me that this was enough even with mild Turnout in other Jewish areas))
44 607 votes
45 1277 votes
48 604 votes

the reason I'm so confident that this is so because with out Weprin's homo problems there is 0 chance Turner wins the Orthodox vote.

Isn't it amazing how when some don't have facts and data on their side, they just spout insults?

[Senator Sbane]

I'm still not convinced the orthodox Jew vote itself would have turned this district. What % of the district are they again? The catholic vote is more interesting imho. Not to say gay marriage didn't have an impact with them, but perhaps the general state of the economy and the resulting approval of Obama because of it had something to do with it?

Not to mention gay marriage is not an issue for the Republicans to run on nationwide. Well, maybe 2012 will be the last cycle for that. Beyond that you will start to get majorly f'ed. Trust me.

[Lunar]

I'm still not convinced the orthodox Jew vote itself would have turned this district. What % of the district are they again?

Maybe 12-20% of likely special election voters, but they tend to be far more swingy than other voters and a lot more reliable for turnout, so it depends on other groups'  turnout too for how to calculate it.

Although on the federal level, they're not swingy at all  lately! If you were to hypothetically subtract out Orthodox voters who voted against pre-scandal Weiner in 2010 (Weiner was a 7-term incumbent or something with all the money in the world), their likely voter population might be cut in at least a half, if not two thirds.  Makes you wonder if Weprin was right to spend all that time focusing on the Orthodox community (going onto the radio with Dov Hikind, other Orthodox radio shows, etc., but never once playing up his half-Latino roots, even though Latinos are 14% of the district).

[patrick1]

the reason I'm so confident that this is so because with out Weprin's homo problems there is 0 chance Turner wins the Orthodox vote.

homo problems

Yup, no slavering hatred and sin here, just the shining love of God. Yessirree.

when they decide to do teshuva we'll talk right now there in a mereda against HKB.
(it wasn't just the marriage that lost him votes it was also his speech and parade marches)
and just to let you know if this district is gerrymandered you will do to the democratic party what Coollidge did to the Republican party (which crystallized under that Roosevelt yemach shemo)

While I can parse most of what you're saying, your random use of Hebrew nouns (other than teshuva, which should be obvious to anyone) also isn't helping your case, as it makes you seem insular.

Orthodox Jews insular? Surely you jest.

All of the Orthodox I talk to loath Obama. The gay marriage thing didn't help matters, but that is not what lost this. Barry has big problems because many key (swing) interest groups are jumping ship. Every race has its own local issues but this was for many people a referendum on the President. 

[NY Jew]

the reason I'm so confident that this is so because with out Weprin's homo problems there is 0 chance Turner wins the Orthodox vote.

homo problems

Yup, no slavering hatred and sin here, just the shining love of God. Yessirree.

when they decide to do teshuva we'll talk right now there in a mereda against HKB.
(it wasn't just the marriage that lost him votes it was also his speech and parade marches)
and just to let you know if this district is gerrymandered you will do to the democratic party what Coollidge did to the Republican party (which crystallized under that Roosevelt yemach shemo)

...which...which aspect of what Coolidge did to the Republican Party? Do you mean leading it to one EC landslide and setting up another? Indirectly leading to a crushing defeat later on with my economic policies? Making it more conservative somehow? And what does any of this have to do with the shape or demographics of NY-09?

While I can parse most of what you're saying, your random use of Hebrew nouns (other than teshuva, which should be obvious to anyone) also isn't helping your case, as it makes you seem insular.

1. Coolidge lost the Jewish vote for the Republicans (and also lost many Catholics) (look it up if you don't know why)
2. the message was specifically for you and not meant that everyone should understand it. (and you supposedly know Hebrew, which I know see isn't true so don't lecture me on the bible again)

[NY Jew]

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/2011/09/16/2011-09-16_the_real_reason_jews_deserted_david_weprin_in_ny9_its_not_because_theyre_mad_at_.html#ixzz1YGSHQIhO


"In the 27th AD, Simanowitz won the 44th ED - in Kew Gardens Hills - by roughly a 4 to 1 margin.  Weprin lost it by a similar ratio. "
I wonder what made people change their minds (keep in mind their was a slight fear that Simanowitz might vote the wrong way on marriage when it comes up for a repeal)

everyone I spoke to (I'm 100% sure that I spoke to more Orthodox Jews who voted in this race than anyone of you did and they'll be more honest with me) in this race voted solely due to marriage ext.