NY-09, Special Election Thread

[NY Jew]

I'm still not convinced the orthodox Jew vote itself would have turned this district. What % of the district are they again?

Maybe 12-20% of likely special election voters, but they tend to be far more swingy than other voters and a lot more reliable for turnout, so it depends on other groups'  turnout too for how to calculate it.

Although on the federal level, they're not swingy at all  lately! If you were to hypothetically subtract out Orthodox voters who voted against pre-scandal Weiner in 2010 (Weiner was a 7-term incumbent or something with all the money in the world), their likely voter population might be cut in at least a half, if not two thirds.  Makes you wonder if Weprin was right to spend all that time focusing on the Orthodox community (going onto the radio with Dov Hikind, other Orthodox radio shows, etc., but never once playing up his half-Latino roots, even though Latinos are 14% of the district).

many Jews voted against Weiner last time because of marriage and the like (Turner last time ran on a social Conservative platform which many Jews still remember from last time) (If Turner would have run a better campaign last time he would have beat Weiner too)

[Gravis Marketing]

Let's not pretend that Orthodox Jews "believing Obama is anti-Semitic" isn't just a projection and proactive defense of their own issues with Obama's ethnic and racial background.

[Verily]

I'm still not convinced the orthodox Jew vote itself would have turned this district. What % of the district are they again? The catholic vote is more interesting imho. Not to say gay marriage didn't have an impact with them, but perhaps the general state of the economy and the resulting approval of Obama because of it had something to do with it?

Not to mention gay marriage is not an issue for the Republicans to run on nationwide. Well, maybe 2012 will be the last cycle for that. Beyond that you will start to get majorly f'ed. Trust me.

The key point is that McCain already won over 90% of the Orthodox Jewish vote in this district in 2008. They couldn't be the deciding factor because they didn't have any more room to swing (although I suppose there might have been a turnout differential). Any talk on here of marriage is just noise.

[Sibboleth]

More to the point (maybe?) it is a distraction from the patterns that are genuinely troubling .

[NY Jew]

Let's not pretend that Orthodox Jews "believing Obama is anti-Semitic" isn't just a projection and proactive defense of their own issues with Obama's ethnic and racial background.

I guess when Orthodox Jews voted for Alan West we were also being racist
considering the peanut farmer is even more widely considered an anti semite I wonder how you'll spin that.

[NY Jew]

I'm still not convinced the orthodox Jew vote itself would have turned this district. What % of the district are they again? The catholic vote is more interesting imho. Not to say gay marriage didn't have an impact with them, but perhaps the general state of the economy and the resulting approval of Obama because of it had something to do with it?

Not to mention gay marriage is not an issue for the Republicans to run on nationwide. Well, maybe 2012 will be the last cycle for that. Beyond that you will start to get majorly f'ed. Trust me.

The key point is that McCain already won over 90% of the Orthodox Jewish vote in this district in 2008. They couldn't be the deciding factor because they didn't have any more room to swing (although I suppose there might have been a turnout differential). Any talk on here of marriage is just noise.

because if not for the marriage Weprin would have won the Orthodox vote big putting him
if you can't understand this basic fact your totally clueless into the Orthodox vote.
and if you except that the Orthodox vote would have voted for Weprin but didn't because of marriage but still can't figure out how marriage effected the election then I suggest you see someone to help you with basic logic and math.

[asexual trans victimologist]

the reason I'm so confident that this is so because with out Weprin's homo problems there is 0 chance Turner wins the Orthodox vote.

homo problems

Yup, no slavering hatred and sin here, just the shining love of God. Yessirree.

when they decide to do teshuva we'll talk right now there in a mereda against HKB.
(it wasn't just the marriage that lost him votes it was also his speech and parade marches)
and just to let you know if this district is gerrymandered you will do to the democratic party what Coollidge did to the Republican party (which crystallized under that Roosevelt yemach shemo)

...which...which aspect of what Coolidge did to the Republican Party? Do you mean leading it to one EC landslide and setting up another? Indirectly leading to a crushing defeat later on with my economic policies? Making it more conservative somehow? And what does any of this have to do with the shape or demographics of NY-09?

While I can parse most of what you're saying, your random use of Hebrew nouns (other than teshuva, which should be obvious to anyone) also isn't helping your case, as it makes you seem insular.

1. Coolidge lost the Jewish vote for the Republicans (and also lost many Catholics) (look it up if you don't know why)
2. the message was specifically for you and not meant that everyone should understand it. (and you supposedly know Hebrew, which I know see isn't true so don't lecture me on the bible again)

1. Okay, I'll bite. I'd love to hear your interpretation of the politics of the 1920s.
2. That's asinine. We're on a public forum and you're making a fool of yourself. (I never claimed to be fluent in Hebrew, just that I could more-or-less make out what you were saying because the vocabulary you were using was not exactly advanced. Okay, here, you want to play rough? Give me an analysis of the Parable of the Labourers in the Vineyard. A GOOD analysis. In Koine Greek. Now.)

[BigSkyBob]

I'm still not convinced the orthodox Jew vote itself would have turned this district. What % of the district are they again? The catholic vote is more interesting imho. Not to say gay marriage didn't have an impact with them, but perhaps the general state of the economy and the resulting approval of Obama because of it had something to do with it?

Not to mention gay marriage is not an issue for the Republicans to run on nationwide. Well, maybe 2012 will be the last cycle for that. Beyond that you will start to get majorly f'ed. Trust me.

The key point is that McCain already won over 90% of the Orthodox Jewish vote in this district in 2008. They couldn't be the deciding factor because they didn't have any more room to swing (although I suppose there might have been a turnout differential). Any talk on here of marriage is just noise.

because if not for the marriage Weprin would have won the Orthodox vote big putting him
if you can't understand this basic fact your totally clueless into the Orthodox vote.
and if you except that the Orthodox vote would have voted for Weprin but didn't because of marriage but still can't figure out how marriage effected the election then I suggest you see someone to help you with basic logic and math.

There is a bit of logic here. The Presidency has the greatest influence on foreign policy, the Congress some, and state offices very little. If Israel is priority #1, priority #1 will sway the Presidential vote, priorities #2,#3... will balance the Congressional vote, and priorities #2,#3... will dictate the state office vote.

[NY Jew]

1. Okay, I'll bite. I'd love to hear your interpretation of the politics of the 1920s.

KKK and 1924 Immigration bill

[NY Jew]

I'm still not convinced the orthodox Jew vote itself would have turned this district. What % of the district are they again? The catholic vote is more interesting imho. Not to say gay marriage didn't have an impact with them, but perhaps the general state of the economy and the resulting approval of Obama because of it had something to do with it?

Not to mention gay marriage is not an issue for the Republicans to run on nationwide. Well, maybe 2012 will be the last cycle for that. Beyond that you will start to get majorly f'ed. Trust me.

The key point is that McCain already won over 90% of the Orthodox Jewish vote in this district in 2008. They couldn't be the deciding factor because they didn't have any more room to swing (although I suppose there might have been a turnout differential). Any talk on here of marriage is just noise.

because if not for the marriage Weprin would have won the Orthodox vote big putting him
if you can't understand this basic fact your totally clueless into the Orthodox vote.
and if you except that the Orthodox vote would have voted for Weprin but didn't because of marriage but still can't figure out how marriage effected the election then I suggest you see someone to help you with basic logic and math.

There is a bit of logic here. The Presidency has the greatest influence on foreign policy, the Congress some, and state offices very little. If Israel is priority #1, priority #1 will sway the Presidential vote, priorities #2,#3... will balance the Congressional vote, and priorities #2,#3... will dictate the state office vote.

not the way I broke it down
1. is the reason why Orthodox Jews voted for Turner over Weprin is gay marriage (very easy to prove if you want to look at any Orthodox Web site on this election, speak to may Orthodox Jews is in this district, read the Orthodox Newspapers that went for Turner, find out why prominent Orthodox Jews endorsed Turner, look at the polling data that breaks down Orthodox Jews into a separate category)
and now point 2 which is where I said it was illogical
and if you except that the Orthodox vote would have voted for Weprin but didn't because of marriage but still can't figure out how marriage effected the election then I suggest you see someone to help you with basic logic and math.

[asexual trans victimologist]

1. Okay, I'll bite. I'd love to hear your interpretation of the politics of the 1920s.

KKK and 1924 Immigration bill

1924 Immigration bill, yes, but the Democrats were much more in the pocket of the KKK than the Republicans were.

I'm still not convinced the orthodox Jew vote itself would have turned this district. What % of the district are they again? The catholic vote is more interesting imho. Not to say gay marriage didn't have an impact with them, but perhaps the general state of the economy and the resulting approval of Obama because of it had something to do with it?

Not to mention gay marriage is not an issue for the Republicans to run on nationwide. Well, maybe 2012 will be the last cycle for that. Beyond that you will start to get majorly f'ed. Trust me.

The key point is that McCain already won over 90% of the Orthodox Jewish vote in this district in 2008. They couldn't be the deciding factor because they didn't have any more room to swing (although I suppose there might have been a turnout differential). Any talk on here of marriage is just noise.

because if not for the marriage Weprin would have won the Orthodox vote big putting him
if you can't understand this basic fact your totally clueless into the Orthodox vote.
and if you except that the Orthodox vote would have voted for Weprin but didn't because of marriage but still can't figure out how marriage effected the election then I suggest you see someone to help you with basic logic and math.

There is a bit of logic here. The Presidency has the greatest influence on foreign policy, the Congress some, and state offices very little. If Israel is priority #1, priority #1 will sway the Presidential vote, priorities #2,#3... will balance the Congressional vote, and priorities #2,#3... will dictate the state office vote.

not the way I broke it down
1. is the reason why Orthodox Jews voted for Turner over Weprin is gay marriage (very easy to prove if you want to look at any Orthodox Web site on this election, speak to may Orthodox Jews is in this district, read the Orthodox Newspapers that went for Turner, find out why prominent Orthodox Jews endorsed Turner, look at the polling data that breaks down Orthodox Jews into a separate category)
and now point 2 which is where I said it was illogical
and if you except that the Orthodox vote would have voted for Weprin but didn't because of marriage but still can't figure out how marriage effected the election then I suggest you see someone to help you with basic logic and math.

This exchange puts me in the uncomfortable position of defending Bob, but his analysis has the benefit of being grammatically coherent. Do you even realise that he's not actually disagreeing with you?

[NY Jew]

1. Okay, I'll bite. I'd love to hear your interpretation of the politics of the 1920s.

KKK and 1924 Immigration bill

1924 Immigration bill, yes, but the Democrats were much more in the pocket of the KKK than the Republicans were.

Coolidge, and Davis specifically (keep in mind that the presidents position is mistakenly taken for the parties even in are own times)

[NY Jew]

This exchange puts me in the uncomfortable position of defending Bob, but his analysis has the benefit of being grammatically coherent. Do you even realise that he's not actually disagreeing with you?

he gave him to much credit

[asexual trans victimologist]

1. Okay, I'll bite. I'd love to hear your interpretation of the politics of the 1920s.

KKK and 1924 Immigration bill

1924 Immigration bill, yes, but the Democrats were much more in the pocket of the KKK than the Republicans were.

Coolidge, and Davis specifically (keep in mind that the presidents position is mistakenly taken for the parties even in are own times)

If you're interested in the Democrats' positioning at this time I'd highly recommend a book titled The 103rd Ballot: Democrats and the Disaster in Madison Square Garden, about the 1924 DNC. It's considerably more complicated than just Davis, although I agree with you that Coolidge sure as Hell didn't do sh**t for Jews or Catholics (or much of anybody, really; then again he also didn't do much stuff against anybody in particular, so...).

[NY Jew]

1. Okay, I'll bite. I'd love to hear your interpretation of the politics of the 1920s.

KKK and 1924 Immigration bill

1924 Immigration bill, yes, but the Democrats were much more in the pocket of the KKK than the Republicans were.

Coolidge, and Davis specifically (keep in mind that the presidents position is mistakenly taken for the parties even in are own times)

If you're interested in the Democrats' positioning at this time I'd highly recommend a book titled The 103rd Ballot: Democrats and the Disaster in Madison Square Garden, about the 1924 DNC. It's considerably more complicated than just Davis, although I agree with you that Coolidge sure as Hell didn't do sh**t for Jews or Catholics (or much of anybody, really; then again he also didn't do much stuff against anybody in particular, so...).

the 1924 immigration bill was against Jews and Catholics.

I understand it's more "complicated than just Davis" but the effect of his condemning the Klan and Coolidge not had a damning effect on ethnic whites voting Republican for years afterwards.

[asexual trans victimologist]

1. Okay, I'll bite. I'd love to hear your interpretation of the politics of the 1920s.

KKK and 1924 Immigration bill

1924 Immigration bill, yes, but the Democrats were much more in the pocket of the KKK than the Republicans were.

Coolidge, and Davis specifically (keep in mind that the presidents position is mistakenly taken for the parties even in are own times)

If you're interested in the Democrats' positioning at this time I'd highly recommend a book titled The 103rd Ballot: Democrats and the Disaster in Madison Square Garden, about the 1924 DNC. It's considerably more complicated than just Davis, although I agree with you that Coolidge sure as Hell didn't do sh**t for Jews or Catholics (or much of anybody, really; then again he also didn't do much stuff against anybody in particular, so...).

the 1924 immigration bill was against Jews and Catholics.

I understand it's more "complicated than just Davis" but the effect of his condemning the Klan and Coolidge not had a damning effect on ethnic whites voting Republican for years afterwards.

All right, I'll concede this point. Though I don't even remember how it came up.

[NY Jew]

1. Okay, I'll bite. I'd love to hear your interpretation of the politics of the 1920s.

KKK and 1924 Immigration bill

1924 Immigration bill, yes, but the Democrats were much more in the pocket of the KKK than the Republicans were.

Coolidge, and Davis specifically (keep in mind that the presidents position is mistakenly taken for the parties even in are own times)

If you're interested in the Democrats' positioning at this time I'd highly recommend a book titled The 103rd Ballot: Democrats and the Disaster in Madison Square Garden, about the 1924 DNC. It's considerably more complicated than just Davis, although I agree with you that Coolidge sure as Hell didn't do sh**t for Jews or Catholics (or much of anybody, really; then again he also didn't do much stuff against anybody in particular, so...).

the 1924 immigration bill was against Jews and Catholics.

I understand it's more "complicated than just Davis" but the effect of his condemning the Klan and Coolidge not had a damning effect on ethnic whites voting Republican for years afterwards.

All right, I'll concede this point. Though I don't even remember how it came up.

here's how

and just to let you know if this district is gerrymandered you will do to the democratic party what Coollidge did to the Republican party (which crystallized under Roosevelt)

[asexual trans victimologist]

1. Okay, I'll bite. I'd love to hear your interpretation of the politics of the 1920s.

KKK and 1924 Immigration bill

1924 Immigration bill, yes, but the Democrats were much more in the pocket of the KKK than the Republicans were.

Coolidge, and Davis specifically (keep in mind that the presidents position is mistakenly taken for the parties even in are own times)

If you're interested in the Democrats' positioning at this time I'd highly recommend a book titled The 103rd Ballot: Democrats and the Disaster in Madison Square Garden, about the 1924 DNC. It's considerably more complicated than just Davis, although I agree with you that Coolidge sure as Hell didn't do sh**t for Jews or Catholics (or much of anybody, really; then again he also didn't do much stuff against anybody in particular, so...).

the 1924 immigration bill was against Jews and Catholics.

I understand it's more "complicated than just Davis" but the effect of his condemning the Klan and Coolidge not had a damning effect on ethnic whites voting Republican for years afterwards.

All right, I'll concede this point. Though I don't even remember how it came up.

here's how

and just to let you know if this district is gerrymandered you will do to the democratic party what Coollidge did to the Republican party (which crystallized under Roosevelt)

Ah, yes.

Here's a question for you: Don't you also argue that it's gerrymandered already?

[NY Jew]

Here's a question for you: Don't you also argue that it's gerrymandered already?

of course the Jewish Communities in Brooklyn are the most gerrymandered areas in the country but right now most people don't realize how bad it is if this is done it would be broadcast across the country.



In short If this district is eliminated then Jews across the country will rebel against the dems big Because this will be seen as targeting Jews which it is (the ones who will be furious over this one are growing rapidly)

[Lunar]

Here's a question for you: Don't you also argue that it's gerrymandered already?

]

In short If this district is eliminated then Jews across the country will rebel against the dems big Because this will be seen as targeting Jews which it is (the ones who will be furious over this one are growing rapidly)

umm..this district being eliminated would lead to a district with a higher concentration of Jews than NY-9 most likely, and better representation

also -- wouldn't be Democrats, it'd be a bipartisan agreement between the GOP and Dems

[NY Jew]

Here's a question for you: Don't you also argue that it's gerrymandered already?

]

In short If this district is eliminated then Jews across the country will rebel against the dems big Because this will be seen as targeting Jews which it is (the ones who will be furious over this one are growing rapidly)

umm..this district being eliminated would lead to a district with a higher concentration of Jews than NY-9 most likely, and better representation

also -- wouldn't be Democrats, it'd be a bipartisan agreement between the GOP and Dems

depends how it's done destroying Turner with out ungerrymandering Brooklyn people will be furious.

[NY Jew]

Here's a question for you: Don't you also argue that it's gerrymandered already?

]

In short If this district is eliminated then Jews across the country will rebel against the dems big Because this will be seen as targeting Jews which it is (the ones who will be furious over this one are growing rapidly)

umm..this district being eliminated would lead to a district with a higher concentration of Jews than NY-9 most likely, and better representation

also -- wouldn't be Democrats, it'd be a bipartisan agreement between the GOP and Dems

depends how it's done destroying Turner with out ungerrymandering Brooklyn people will be furious.

not if Coumo vetos what ever the Republicans put forth

[Lunar]

I challenge you to draw a situation where NY-9 is gone that divides the Orthodox Brooklyn vote more than it's currently divided.

I'm not sure if it's possible, it certainly seems quite difficult at the very least.

[NY Jew]

I challenge you to draw a situation where NY-9 is gone that divides the Orthodox Brooklyn vote more than it's currently divided.

I'm not sure if it's possible, it certainly seems quite difficult at the very least.

It's possible in Brooklyn but not much but
right now Weiner's seat includes the Orthodox Jewish communties in Queens and splitting those off will destroy both communities

[NY Jew]

the final results are in and Turner won by 3686 votes