NY-09, Special Election Thread

[J. J.]

Dov Hikind endorses Turner to keep the momentum building.

Does this mean much in the district? From my own, minimal research on the guy, he seems somewhat prominent (and asinine. He's one of the clowns that said that "The Passion of the Christ" would cause anti-semetic and bigoted rioting. How'd that work out, Dov?).

No one other than the Orthodox care what Dov Hikind thinks. I doubt his endorsement has any real impact other than to indicate which way the Orthodox vote was going (which we already knew, and the Orthodox vote in this district was around 90% McCain in 2008 anyway).

It could help with turnout.  As a complete outsider, the Orthodox seem both cohesive and organized.  They could end up being a big chunk of the electorate.

[J. J.]

I can understand NY Jew's point on the effect of Weprin's stand will turn off Orthodox Jewish voters, without agreeing with the underlying morality of it.  His view is probably representative of most Orthodox voters, which makes up a reasonable percentage of the electorate in this district.

Further, I'd expect it to energize the Orthodox Jewish electorate and I expect to turn out in higher numbers that the non Orthodox electorate.

The polling was showing Turner with a lead, and I'd expect it to hold.

(How, that for a prediction?)

[J. J.]

NY Jew was probably right about the effect.  This one is not a microcosm.

[J. J.]

"GOTV will win it for us!" is usually a death knell.

J. J.'s Second Rule of Elections: "When a politician or activist talks about a large group of voters that, a. aren't being polled, or b. really going to turn out and swing the election, there is no such group."

This is close to that violation.

Turner 54%
Weprin 45%

[J. J.]

Reuters reported a "large" turnout this AM.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/13/us-usa-congress-weiner-idUSTRE78C0VL20110913

[J. J.]

Results should be here:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NY_US_House_0913.html

Is there something wrong with this link? It leads to a map of the US that shows member press outfits by state.

Maybe they have not started posting the results yet?

[J. J.]

1010 WINS live stream can be heard hear:  http://newyork.cbslocal.com/station/1010-wins/#listen-live

[J. J.]

Heavy Jewish turnout according to Fox.

[J. J.]

Fox is also reporting "heavy" turnout in "conservative areas of Queens."

[J. J.]

12 in Turner 55%.

[J. J.]

15 in Weprin at 50%.

[J. J.]

15 precincts and the politician that looks like a 70's porn star takes the lead!

Too early to tell, but if all Weprin can do is break even in Queens, the Brooklyn part of the district will sink him.  It is much more Republican-friendly than the Queens part.

Yep.  Weprin has to get his margin from Queens.

Weprin down 49/50, with 4 districts in Brooklyn.  He's losing those 35/65.

[J. J.]

What is the Orthodox population of Queens vs. Brooklyn?

[J. J.]

61 in, Turner 54.  Only 8 are from Brooklyn.

[J. J.]

What is the Orthodox population of Queens vs. Brooklyn?

Brooklyn is much more orthodox

and Queens is pretty Jewish, but they are the more of the wealthy not a strict type.

Its a war between two types of Jews.

Turner is at 71% in Brooklyn.

[J. J.]

What is the Orthodox population of Queens vs. Brooklyn?

Brooklyn is much more orthodox

and Queens is pretty Jewish, but they are the more of the wealthy not a strict type.

Its a war between two types of Jews.

Turner is at 71% in Brooklyn.

Well yeah, but Brooklyn has less then 1000 votes in so far.

9 in, and now Turner is at 72% there.

[J. J.]

Queens is tied again, but turner is now at 75% in Brooklyn (14 reporting).

[J. J.]

Yes, Turner has won. Queens has only about 25 precincts that McCain carried, and the Brooklyn portion is very Pubbie. It's totally over. And Turner will end up with a much more GOP district next time, because thanks to the VRA, most of it will be in Brooklyn. Yes Brooklyn. Trust me. . Weiner really F the Dems doing what he did at redistricting time. It should be at least a 10% margin, maybe more. It's a blowout. I wonder what repercussions it will have?






It depends on how well Turner does in Queens.  You can say Brooklyn was do to the Orthodox angry on same sex marriage and support for Israel (for some).  Queens in another story.

[J. J.]

Turner now at 77% percent in Brooklyn lol.

Weprin is up to 28%!

[J. J.]

Half of Queens is in; Weprin is up 53%.  Turner is down to 70%.

[J. J.]

I think if Weprin can win the remainder of Queens by 60-40, he can pull out a squeaker of a win.

It's now 196 in Queens, the margin is still holding and going up a bit in Brooklyn.

[J. J.]

216 in in Queens.  50/50.

[J. J.]

AP just declared it for Turner.

[J. J.]

You can write off what is happening in Brooklyn to the Orthodox vote.  You can say Weprin wasn't a strong candidate (he was fairly strong).  However you cannot write off Queens for eith of those things.

If you are Obama, you have think that what happened in Queens is about you.

[J. J.]

Turner closed a bit in Queens.