NY-09, Special Election Thread

[Lunar]

Mmhmm, I think a better question would be whether this will hurt his mayoral run.

Short answer: It's dead.

Longer answer: Despite being a liberal himself, Weiner's political position in NYC has always been fairly dependent on support from relatively conservative groups like the Russians and Orthodox Jews as well as in general older whites living in outer Brooklyn and Queens. Meanwhile, his chief rival for the mayoralty, Christine Quinn, has more backing from the white liberals, partially because she represents a lot of them and is from Manhattan while Weiner is from Queens. Now, the scandal probably hurts Weiner at least somewhat among the crunchy-granola crowd in inner Brooklyn and Manhattan (the misogyny perspective), but more importantly it crushes his support among the conservative outer-borough whites. And, other than that she's a lesbian, politically Quinn is a better fit ideologically for those voters anyway. Although, with Weiner clearly out of the picture, while Quinn is temporarily the frontrunner, I'm sure someone else will enter the race to challenge her. (Bill Thompson is a huge joke and totally incompetent and could not hope to win a primary.) The election is a long time from now, obviously.

I think de Blasio obviously gains the most, fwiw, as he's the other outer borough white mega-liberal in the race

[Lunar]

Worst danger for Dems is if Crowley goes with a weak Dem nominee to bolster himself in redistricting

[Lunar]

The election is going to be on September 13th which is conveniently the day of the Nevada special election as well.

And the New York primary elections, which makes sense - to save money.

It also means that the parties will pick the candidates.

..which helps the Republicans, funnily enough. Since the Republicans actually want to put up the strongest candidate possible but the Democrats are trying to thread the needle of putting up someone strong, but not strong enough to be able to challenge Ackerman or Crowley in a primary post-redistricting

[Lunar]

It all depends on the Democratic candidate. If Crowley picks someone palatable to the district, as is quite likely (but he has mixed goals), it'd be an uphill climb for the GOP.  But we'll have to see the Democrat first.

Bloomberg won this district with 70% of the vote, it's not complete fool's gold, it's just a complex situation where the Democrats are favored.

[Lunar]

Perfect candidate.

WRONG!

I'm sorry to be blunt, but she did not perform well in NY-9 in her past elections (two decades ago), has made tons of foreign policy statements guaranteed to lose Orthodox voters, and doesn't live anywhere near the district now.

It's hard to imagine a worse choice Crowley could realistically make, electorally speaking.  He could pick like six or eight other candidates who would have a better chance at winning the seat but still wouldn't primary a sitting Congressional incumbent.

There's an Orthodox Jewish Assemblyman right there in the district (who voted for gay marriage but can still relate better to the Orthodox voters who I think occupy the majority of the swing voters in the district than any Republican), why not just go with him instead of some kind of big named candidate guaranteed to be controversial?

[Lunar]

How about Ed Koch if we're just throwing around silly names

[Lunar]

I don't think the Orthodox are a big deal, they voted almost 100% for McCain anyway and he still lost the seat by a wide margin despite plenty of other votes not being fond of Obama.

Michael Bloomberg won 70% of the vote in NY-9.  It's a competitive seat, potentially.

Orthodox voters break 80-20 or 90-10 instead of 55-45, so they can be the most influential swing voters sometimes

[Lunar]

I think the frontrunner for this is Assemblyman Rory Lancman and former Councilwoman Melinda Katz as the runner up.

Yes, those two would be in my top three, I'd toss in David Weprin too

[Lunar]

I don't think the Orthodox are a big deal, they voted almost 100% for McCain anyway and he still lost the seat by a wide margin despite plenty of other votes not being fond of Obama.

Michael Bloomberg won 70% of the vote in NY-9.  It's a competitive seat, potentially.

So all the Republicans need to do is nominate a Jewish billionaire who can spend as much as he wants and hope the Democrats nominate an underfunded black guy?

That's what they would need to do to win 70% in the district.  I assume that they'd be just as happy with 50.1% in the special election.

[Lunar]

Michael Bloomberg won 70% of the vote in NY-9.  It's a competitive seat, potentially.

It was held by 21pts in a dire year, something that normally indicates 'safe' - especially as Tony Penis never showed much sign of having a genuine personal vote.

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Think you need to be more specific, oh Brooklyn expert (sorry; easy target). Not all Orthodox are Hasidism even if all Hasidism are Orthodox. Its the Hasids that have such wacky voting patterns, wherever they exist.

Good points both.  On the first point, I think the Democrats will win, but that's partially because I expect Crowley to put up a solid candidate.

On the second, whoops, but Orthos are still a growing and swing constituency trending away from the Dems (along with the Russian Jews):
http://www.r8ny.com/blog/gatemouth/wake_up_and_spell_the_kugel.html

(edit if that link doesn't work, try the cache here)

[Lunar]

I think you're wrong, there are Orthodox voters in Queens, Midwood, and they are expanding and growing in areas like Marine Park.

[Lunar]

More specifically: Sheepshead Bay, Forest Hills, Fresh Meadows, Kew Gardens, Rego Park all have Orthodox communities as well, and most of their Wikipedia pages even confirm this.

edit: Don't forget that the Soviet Jewish population in Sheepshead Bay, Brighton Beach, and Queens is turning away from the Democratic Party as well.

It's probably going to stay in Democratic hands, but that's because the Democrats will nominate a strong candidate

[Lunar]

There's also a significant Asian and Hispanic population especially in Kew Gardens and Rego Park

Indeed, but they'll have reduced turnout for a special election relative to the district's Jewish voters, and those that do tirn out wont be as swingy in their voting characteristics

[Lunar]

I don't think the Orthodox are a big deal, they voted almost 100% for McCain anyway and he still lost the seat by a wide margin despite plenty of other votes not being fond of Obama.

Michael Bloomberg won 70% of the vote in NY-9.  It's a competitive seat, potentially.

Orthodox voters break 80-20 or 90-10 instead of 55-45, so they can be the most influential swing voters sometimes

That's like saying every seat in Oklahoma is potentially competitive because Brad Henry won them all in 2006.

No it's not like saying that at all -- it's more like arguing that the seat Brad Henry did the best in is potentially competitive.  This was Bloomberg's best district in the city.

The point about Orthodox is exactly what I was saying. McCain already won them in the 90s, and Obama still carried the seat by 13 points despite being disliked by plenty of other voters in the district.

Yup, and the Democrats are favored, it's a Democratic-leaning district and Republicans only have of handful of districts that Democratic throughout the country.

I'm just saying the Democrats can't treat this seat like it's a joke and nominate whomever.  I don't expect them to.  Hopefully that part is understood, so no need to make a bunch of "Lunar was wrong!" posts when the D's win this one

Special elections CAN be funky and surprising though, if recent history is any indication

[Lunar]

I suppose if Bloomberg himself ran for the Republicans then the district might be in danger. As it is though...

I think it's a misunderstanding to assume that Bloomberg did well here because he's Bloomberg.  Bloomberg did well in the Upper West Side because he's Bloomberg, but not necessarily here.  

I think it has more to do with the Democrat, which is my entire point: the Democrats can't just nominate anybody here and expect to win by default.

The Democrats will likely select a candidate who will be at a huge advantage in the special election, but if they select someone like Holtzman, this seat will be in real danger.  I'd be surprised if they actually selected someone outside of the district like that though, Crowley is trying to make his machine NOT look out of order while the national spotlight is on it.

But, of course, sometimes even the most solidly favored special elections go awry (MA-Sen, NY-26, etcetc).  This is a weird district though since at its core it's like 20% Republican.

[Lunar]

Let me put my prediction in more simple terms, since I'm bobbing back and forth a bit: I expect the Democratic nominee to have ties or appeal to the Jewish social services organizations in the area like Agudah Israel

[Lunar]

Bob Turner's going to be the GOP nominee, I guarantee it.

Okay, this race might not be competitive after all.

[Lunar]

David Weprin is the Democratic nominee.

[Lunar]

Weprin's 2010 opponent opposed hate crime legislation, yielding this negative attack mailer.

[Lunar]

David Weprin is the Democratic nominee.

Your anti-Holtzman campaign worked!

Actually, it probably had an effect. Glad someone noticed!

[Lunar]

So, NYC gurus, what does Weprin get from the party for giving up his Assembly seat to be an interim congressman until after redistricting next year?

He ran for Comptroller in 2009 before going to the Assembly in 2010. Word on the street is that John Liu is running for Mayor, which would open up the Comptroller's slot in 2013 again

[Lunar]

Also, please keep in mind how much the Assembly sucks -- we've had five members leave elected office just this year alone, and that's not even counting those attempting to leave for higher office like Jane Corwin (failed) or Hakeem Jeffries (pending).

[Lunar]

what do you guys think of this race? Honestly curious from an outside perspective -- there's been recent arguments behind and not-so-behind the scenes that the progressive community is failing to actually show even a remote interest here, even though the district is less Democratic than Hochul's district is Republican

[Lunar]

what do you guys think of this race? Honestly curious from an outside perspective -- there's been recent arguments behind and not-so-behind the scenes that the progressive community is failing to actually show even a remote interest here, even though the district is less Democratic than Hochul's district is Republican

As a former constituent of NY09, I think there were better/stronger voices and choices in the community including those who weren't currently elected to public office. Weprin has also said he won't run for re-election for Congress if elected. Bob Turner won't win. But for the seat was once Schumer's, Geraldine Ferraro's, and Anthony Weiner's--there could've been a better pick, for sure.

I mean, the seat isn't quite what it once was. Anthony Weiner lost his own former Brooklyn City Council District in 2010 when he ran for reelection.  Weiner almost even lost Brooklyn altogether against a candidate who only won 39% overall, so the district's clearly changed from what Weiner and Schumer held when they first got elected to the seat, and Ferraro's district is obviously different and contained no Brooklyn parts, if I recall correctly.

Weprin is more liberal than Anthony Weiner was, in some ways (he attacked his Assembly opponent in 2010 for flip flopping on gay marriage and cited his own Orthodox Jewish beliefs when backing gay marriage in 2011), but he's not going to generate YouTube clips. But Weiner was the frontrunner for the NYC Mayor's office, that's an awfully high bar to set.

[Lunar]

Also: Who were the better choices? 

Melinda Katz is tied to the most controversial aspects of the Queens machine,  Eric Gioia didn't really represent much of the district (if any), and a Holtzman selection would have done more to help Bob Turner win than God himself intervening.