NY-09, Special Election Thread

[Wonkish1]

Look the only outcome after Turner wins this race is:
Before: Redistricting was likely going to be decided by the courts
Now: Redistricting will likely be a compromise "incumbency protection" bill

"I trade you my 'likely to lose soon' Dem congressman in GOP district for your 'likely to lose soon' GOP congressman in Dem district and everything else stays pretty close to the same.

For those that disagree with that:
1) If you are a Dem thinking you are entitled to two seats given up by the GOP why do you think the GOP senate would ever agree to that
2) If you are GOP thinking the exact opposite...I point you to number 1.
3) If you think that it makes more sense for your particular party to let the courts decide, your wrong. The courts will produce a similar delegation map except the NY politicians will likely wonder if so and so court could put me on the chopping block for no gain...better to cut a deal now and protect me!!!!!!!!!!!!

The real story here is: Why are the Dems blowing a ton of money on a race that doesn't matter much, AGAIN? My guess is that state bills and the economy have dropped union dues by at least 15% nationally in just the last 4 years and the Left are acting like they have money to piss around on nothing.

Like right after WEA threw the kitchen sink at the WI senate when they knew that the new redistricting bill was going to make sure they didn't have the WI senate after 2012 anyway. Election ends and they lay off 60% of their union staff and are now out of the 2012 race.

I for one will continue to applaud the stupidity of Dem campaign committees and their 527s/501c(4)s blowing money on meaningless races.

[Wonkish1]

The Democratic party "We waste your money and resources"

and "now are own"....YAY!!

[Wonkish1]

The Democratic party "We waste your money and resources"

and "now are own"....YAY!!

What?

Talking about how Dems are blowing money on a race that wont have much consequence after redistricting and how they are putting way to many people at the polls that should be door knocking.

Its interesting to watch the Dems being horrible stewards of their own election resources and money. I guess it was bound to happen sooner or later given how bad they are with other peoples money in government.

[Wonkish1]

After playing around with the 2010 Weiner/Turner numbers and '08 Presidential numbers, I think Weprin's going to have to get about 54-55% in Queens and 39-40% in Brooklyn to win. Of course, if turnout is down in Queens relative to Brooklyn (it was about 70-30 in both of the previous elections), it gets significantly harder for Weprin to pull off a win.

Well you have the right idea I think you need to polarize the numbers a little bit more. The numbers coming out of some circles is that Welprin needs 57-58% in Queens and needs to do better than ~37% in Brooklyn. That's how bad they think he's going to do in Brooklyn.

The exact terminology is that unless Welprin starts putting up more than 60% in Forest Hills, Rego Park, Fresh Meadows, and Kew Gardens he is going to have a rough night.

[Wonkish1]

Anybody know of any news or results sources that will get us a little deeper peek??

[Wonkish1]

A few did in WI for the Senate Recalls, but it just comes in a 1 or 2 time news release.

"Within Milwaukee county Whitefish Bay and Shorewood have already reported, the only precincts left within Milwaukee county are in Glendale and Brown Deer" meaning that the Dem percentage lead in Milwaukee county will fall a little bit by the end of the night.

Or

"Pasch outperformed her 08 Whitefish Bay margin by 200 votes."

Any news source you recommend for those type of releases???

[Wonkish1]

If recent election reporting is any kind of barometer I bet that east Queens will report a few early followed by all of west Queens and then the rest of east Queens at the end.

Brooklyn is anybodies guess.

[Wonkish1]

If that plays out then the Dems will look good right away in Queens, followed by the vote tally getting much closer as the remaining Dem precincts wait to be the precinct that puts Welprin over the top. When that doesn't materialize they will eventually just release in mass.

[Wonkish1]

I'm predicting it closer than some are saying. 50.5 to 49 Turner.

[Wonkish1]

Weprin 51.07% - Turner 48.93%  I feel like being an optimist.

So your going to make an optimistic very specific prediction, but assume that the SW candidate wont get a single vote???

[Wonkish1]

Really 40 minutes later???

Damn New York is backwards.

[Wonkish1]

Wow 84 votes. All be damned...

[Wonkish1]

Any guesses where these tiny precincts are located.

My guess...

Oakland Gardens

[Wonkish1]

If Turner is winning in a place like Oakland Gardens(which probably only has a couple tiny precincts in the district hence me guessing that area) then Welprin is pretty much screwed.

[Wonkish1]

Thats right, but if you look at the map there really can only be a few areas that could produce small precincts.

Care to make your guesses where numbers could be produced that small in Queens?

[Wonkish1]

Now again this could be from the fact that I don't know NY politics the best, but traditionally tiny precincts are usually border precincts where a town is 80%+ outside of the district and 20%- inside the district.

If that is the case I look to Oakland Gardens or Richmond Hills both areas that should perform better than 50% with Dems, but again small sample size.

[Wonkish1]

Bayside Hills could also produce a few small precincts which should be Dem territory

As well as the eastern side of Bushwick which should be swing territory.

[Wonkish1]

Call me crazy, but if you sit and stare at the map it would appear that more small precincts should come from the Dem territory in the east then the slight GOP territory in the south or the swing territory in the west of queens.

[Wonkish1]

I project that Turner will win by a clear margin. Apparently the votes which haven't come in yet trend heavily his way.

Which county are you referring to??

Queens...wow!!
Brooklyn...Duh!

Hence why I'm skeptical of that notion.

[Wonkish1]

To someone that knows the district better than I...

Forest Hills(Dem territory) should have the largest Precinct dumps, correct?

[Wonkish1]

What is the Orthodox population of Queens vs. Brooklyn?

Brooklyn is much more orthodox

and Queens is pretty Jewish, but they are the more of the wealthy not a strict type.

Its a war between two types of Jews.

[Wonkish1]

This thing is pretty close to me calling it here.

The guy needs close to 60% in Queens and he isn't even breaking 50. There is 0 reason to believe that some 80% territory is going to pop out of nowhere to start making up this kind of beat down.

[Wonkish1]

These aren't Howard Beach numbers though. They dumps would be trending more GOP. They aren't from Forest Hills either or the dumps would be more Dem they are from somewhere else. Numbers like these aren't the kind of numbers you see from either parties 'strongholds' within a county, city, borough, etc.

Don't get me wrong Welprin will still most assuredly take Queens. But its increasingly less likely that he's going to take it by even close the margins that he needs(like 57-58%) to win. Because he will get creamed in Brooklyn. I bet he loses 65-35 in Brooklyn.

[Wonkish1]

Still isn't breaking 50% in Queens with 1/3 of the precincts reporting...Ouch!!

I'm sorry but Forest Hills likely late dump isn't going to rescue this guy.

[Wonkish1]

Out of curiosity, what kind of numbers was Weiner getting out of Brooklyn?

A hell of a lot better than this.