NY-09, Special Election Thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why not just run Manny Celler? If he won his physical remains would still be more intelligent than a majority of the current New York delegation.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How about Ed Koch if we're just throwing around silly names

Why ever not? He'd win without much bother (presumably) and then there would be no issue regarding redistricting as I'm sure that the legislature would regard carving his district up as more a pleasure than a duty.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Michael Bloomberg won 70% of the vote in NY-9.  It's a competitive seat, potentially.

It was held by 21pts in a dire year, something that normally indicates 'safe' - especially as Tony Penis never showed much sign of having a genuine personal vote.

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Think you need to be more specific, oh Brooklyn expert (sorry; easy target). Not all Orthodox are Hasidism even if all Hasidism are Orthodox. Its the Hasids that have such wacky voting patterns, wherever they exist.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I suppose if Bloomberg himself ran for the Republicans then the district might be in danger. As it is though... sorry to be like a stuck record, but the district was held by an incumbent who never seemed to be notably personally popular by over 20pts in a sh!t year for his party. The circumstances can't be helpful, but in order to lose the seat the Democrats would have to fyck up candidate selection big time. Its a safe seat.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think it's a misunderstanding to assume that Bloomberg did well here because he's Bloomberg.  Bloomberg did well in the Upper West Side because he's Bloomberg, but not necessarily here.

Bloomberg being Bloomberg was a big part of his appeal everywhere. Because an important part of Bloomberg being Bloomberg is Bloomberg's ability to essentially buy elections.

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Obviously that was a big factor as well. When combined with Bloomberg. And the general framework of municipal politics in New York for the past two decades. This election will be for Congress, which is different.

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How likely are they to nominate a (black) municipal hack from Bedford-Stuyvesant?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Firstly, welcome to the forum. Secondly... you will soon discover that certain ways of arguing should be avoided if you want people to take you more than slightly seriously ever other Gibbous Moon.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Once again, a heavy hint to cut it out.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyways, as to the by-election... my general view remains the same. This is (or ought to be) a safe seat. End of. So losing it would be a big fycking blow, no matter what bollocks could be spun about the humiliating circumstances or the grossly exaggerated importance of the Hasidic vote.

Of course, safe seats are often lost in by-elections. And a big contributing factor is often (though not always) a poor choice of candidate. And, well... yeah. So, we'll see.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Dov Hikind always almost always endorses Republicans; his endorsement would only be news if he endorsed the Democrat.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some statistics for the district (2005-2009 ACS)...

White: 68.6%
Black: 4.7%
Hispanic: 15.8%
Asian: 17.5% (of which 50.7% are Chinese and 24.7% Indian)
Median Age: 40.2
Over 65: 15.9%
Percentage with BA/etc or higher: 36.4%
Born Abroad: 40.2% (of which 64.6% are citizens)
Anglophone: 48.2%
Italian: 12.6%
Irish: 8.1%
Russian: 7.8%
German: 5.1%
Polish: 4.8%
Median HH Income: $57,024
Economically Inactive: 39.4%
Managerial/Professional occupations: 38.6%
Production/Construction/Service/Etc occupations: 33.9%
Public Sector Workers: 16.6%
Employed in Education/Health/Etc: 25.4%
Employed in Finance/Etc: 11.5%
Employed in Manufacturing: 5.1%
Households earning less than $35,000: 32.1%
Households earning more than $100,000: 24.6%
Percentage Renting: 48.7%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What a remarkably sh!tty candidate and what a remarkably sh!tty campaign. Are they actually trying to lose?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Weiner and Schumer used to get 70-80% here.

Not really true; it was (and still ought to be) a safe seat, but not to that extent. Weiner never got close to 80% in a contested election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

isn't there an Anglo seat area left to fill in Brooklyn/Queens?

Given that this district isn't majority English speaking, how can it be an Anglo seat?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why not just run Manny Celler? If he won his physical remains would still be more intelligent than a majority of the current New York delegation.

I maintain that this was a fundamentally good idea.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

About the Orthodox thing, I think it's mostly that people just know that Weiner's district was in south Brooklyn and Queens and jump to conclusions without checking anything.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The district only dates from the 1992 redistricting. New York districts are apt to change a lot so you have to be careful about these things, but certainly parts of the Brooklyn portion have had a Democratic Congresscritter since Manny Celler gained what was then NY-10 in 1922 (so 1923). Probably; it's hard to be sure about that kind of thing. I would be amazed if there haven't been Republicans representing the Queens section of the district at much later dates.

Of course we have a map of NYC districts in the 1980s posted on this forum (here) so it should be possible to track incumbents back from that... maybe.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Argue about these things elsewhere please.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just repeating an earlier post because... you know...

Some statistics for the district (2005-2009 ACS)...

White: 68.6%
Black: 4.7%
Hispanic: 15.8%
Asian: 17.5% (of which 50.7% are Chinese and 24.7% Indian)
Median Age: 40.2
Over 65: 15.9%
Percentage with BA/etc or higher: 36.4%
Born Abroad: 40.2% (of which 64.6% are citizens)
Anglophone: 48.2%
Italian: 12.6%
Irish: 8.1%
Russian: 7.8%
German: 5.1%
Polish: 4.8%
Median HH Income: $57,024
Economically Inactive: 39.4%
Managerial/Professional occupations: 38.6%
Production/Construction/Service/Etc occupations: 33.9%
Public Sector Workers: 16.6%
Employed in Education/Health/Etc: 25.4%
Employed in Finance/Etc: 11.5%
Employed in Manufacturing: 5.1%
Households earning less than $35,000: 32.1%
Households earning more than $100,000: 24.6%
Percentage Renting: 48.7%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

PPP says Obama's approval in NY-09 is 31%. Oof.

He's going to lose next year.

Alright, that might just be the insomnia and the tramadol talking. I admit that. Who knows.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not impossible to overcome given the usual issues with constituency/district/etc polling, I suppose. Looks pretty bleak regardless.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If Weprin loses, this poll certainly suggests that it's about national issues and Obama, not the candidates.

I think - if the polls and all the rumours and everything - are right*, then it'd likely be a combination of the two. These things are often about momentum; in order for the national issues to hit and to hurt, sometimes a horrific choice of candidate for the government party is needed to drop the ball in a ghastly trainwreck of unacceptably mixed metaphors. If you see my point.

Of course if Weprin loses by double digits, I take that all back. Because sometimes it isn't necessary and sometimes even good government candidates lose by-elections in safe seats. And if Weprin is beaten heavily, I think that'd be evidence that even a decent candidate would have lost. Narrowly.

*My experience is that polls and people on the ground sometimes read these things very badly, so we shouldn't be too shocked if they turn out to be wrong. Even if that is hardly likely.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hey, is there a heavy Orthodox Jew community in this district? Also, has Gay Marriage resonated as an issue in this Special?

You've heard that as well?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What sort of time do the results start to come in?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is starting to look actively embarrassing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

215/512: Turner 51

Brooklyn: Turner 70 (39/170)
Queens: Weprin 53 (176/342)