Of the candidates who you don't think carry any states - Charles Evans Hughes, Alf Landon, and Wendell Willkie - how well do you think each of them do? Would they be wiped out, have good showings with certain constituencies, or just sort of flounder?
Wendell Willkie could either do the worst, or maybe appeal to North-Eastern pro-business but overall Liberal Republicans. I can't see him doing well in any group besides that, if he could do well even there.
Landon's only chance, with three north-easterners in the field, is Iowa, but Dole would dominate there. If Landon's lucky, IMO, he gets fourth or better.
Charles Even Hughes' biggest competition is with Dewey. However, I think Dewey would have better appeal to modern Republicans simply because he's from a different era, and because I think he'd be slightly to the right of Hughes:
In 1942, Dewey ran for governor again, and won with a large plurality over Democrat John J. Bennett, Jr. Bennett was not endorsed by the American Labor Party, whose candidate drew almost 10%. The ALP did endorse incumbent Lieutenant Governor Charles Poletti who lost narrowly to Dewey's running mate Thomas W. Wallace. In 1946, Dewey was re-elected by the greatest margin in state history to that point, almost 700,000 votes. Four years later, he was elected to a third term.
Usually regarded as an honest and highly effective governor, Dewey cut taxes; doubled state aid to education; increased salaries for state employees; and still reduced the state's debt by over $100 million. Additionally, he put through the first state law in the country that prohibited racial discrimination in employment. As governor, Dewey also signed legislation that created the State University of New York. He played a major role in the creation of the New York State Thruway, which was eventually named in his honor. Dewey also streamlined and consolidated many state agencies to make them more efficient. With Jaeckle's help, Dewey also created a powerful political organization that allowed him to dominate New York state politics and influence national politics.
He also strongly supported the death penalty. During his 12 years as Governor, over 90 people were electrocuted under New York authority.
Supporter of death penalty, cut taxes, reduced debt, while providing more services. He could be an ideal candidate. From what I remember from reading the article on Hughes, his tenure as Governor of New York was mainly marked by putting the Governorship in charge of more and more things in the state, and that could be used against him.
Here's how I see it playing out:January 3rd, Iowa:
Dole dominates there with the Religious Right seeing him as the only choice. However, Goldwater does well with his own little group. Landon's attempts to win there prove futile as Western Progressive Republicans have long faded away.January 5th, Wyoming:
Goldwater's Libertarianism and staunch fiscal conservatism carries the day. Landon, by placing third in the convention, drops out. Dole takes second.January 8th, New Hampshire
In one of the biggest fights, with each candidate representing his own side, Dewey is able to pull out. While Goldwater rallied the Libertarian-Conservatives and Willkie went after the Liberals, Dewey has beaten out Hughes for the moderates, carrying a slice of the Liberals with him and comes out on top.January 15th, Michigan
The last state that Hughes, Landon, or Willkie could score in before losing all hope, Dewey wins out again, having become the favorite son of the moderate to liberal Northerners.
I'm not really good with percentages, but I think Dewey and the guys who don't get states would do moderately well in open primaries. Aside from that, though, after Dewey's eclipsed them, they have no hope.