The Gay Empire State

[krazen1211]

What's up with that guy in Buffalo who is as doomed next election as Cao was? If he's going to try he could make an appeal to Moderate Hero-esque Democrats. If he votes against it he'll just be seen as a typical Republican.

There appear to be a lot of blacks in that district. Doubt he's looking for the white latte liberal vote.

[they don't love you like i love you]

What's up with that guy in Buffalo who is as doomed next election as Cao was? If he's going to try he could make an appeal to Moderate Hero-esque Democrats. If he votes against it he'll just be seen as a typical Republican.

There appear to be a lot of blacks in that district. Doubt he's looking for the white latte liberal vote.

Well the blacks aren't going to vote for him anyway. If as many still remain in his district after redistricting he's even more dead.

[Lunar]

How many politicians invoke the advice of their dead mother and vote the other way?

Count one more "yes" from the GOP column

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/13/nyregion/gay-marriage-issue-burden-for-senates-undecided-8.html?_r=1
[quote]
And Senator Andrew Lanza keeps thinking about the words of his recently deceased mother, who urged him, despite his reservations, to back same-sex weddings.

“Be a leader,” she insisted. “Don’t be afraid. Do it.”

[Smash255]

How many politicians invoke the advice of their dead mother and vote the other way?

Count one more "yes" from the GOP column

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/13/nyregion/gay-marriage-issue-burden-for-senates-undecided-8.html?_r=1

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Does seem like Lanza will be a yes, but the article doesn't say he will votes yes, and was before the other articles which still listed him as undecided.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

What's up with that guy in Buffalo who is as doomed next election as Cao was? If he's going to try he could make an appeal to Moderate Hero-esque Democrats. If he votes against it he'll just be seen as a typical Republican.

There appear to be a lot of blacks in that district. Doubt he's looking for the white latte liberal vote.

Well the blacks aren't going to vote for him anyway. If as many still remain in his district after redistricting he's even more dead.

They could move the black voters into Tim Kennedy's district. They can't really make only one safe Democratic district in Erie County and have the rest be fairly Republican, but it would give Grisanti a shot at winning.

[Holmes]

Is this new? Grisanti is now undecided. Sounds more like a "no, but if I think about it without religion it's yes". I guess it'll depend on how he feels during the vote.

[Smash255]

LOL I just got a call from the National Organization for Marriage.  It was an automated call asking if I was a registered voter in NY and then if I believe marriage should only be between one man and a woman.

[Lunar]

ROY MCDONALD JUST SAID HE'D VOTE YES

1 LEFT

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

holy sh**t this is actually going to happen

[Lunar]

Senator McDonald: "F*** it, I don't care what you think, I'm trying to do the right thing."

[Verily]

Apparently random Upstate Republicans are frequently more liberal than typically assumed.

[Lunar]

Apparently random Upstate Republicans are frequently more liberal than typically assumed.

Alesi ain't a random Upstate Republican, fwiw.

[Smash255]

Great News

When it comes down to it my guess is this will pass with 35 or 36 votes.

[Verily]

Apparently random Upstate Republicans are frequently more liberal than typically assumed.

Alesi ain't a random Upstate Republican, fwiw.

Not sure what else you would consider him, although he does represent a ~60% Obama seat IIRC.

[Lunar]

Apparently random Upstate Republicans are frequently more liberal than typically assumed.

Alesi ain't a random Upstate Republican, fwiw.

Not sure what else you would consider him, although he does represent a ~60% Obama seat IIRC.

That helps -- and there are rumors about him that mirror those against Carl Kruger

[Holmes]

We should all list ways this can go horribly wrong, because that's probably what's gonna happen.

[Lunar]

We should all list ways this can go horribly wrong, because that's probably what's gonna happen.

Everything wrong used to happen when the votes were off the record -- when people hold press conferences to announce their vote, it's waaay more solid than in 2009 when this thing went down

[Smash255]

We should all list ways this can go horribly wrong, because that's probably what's gonna happen.

The only thing I think that could go wrong is Skelos could back peddle on holding the vote the same way he did with redistricting reform, but I think he would have way too much pressure to hold the vote, and the outrage against him would be far too large if he didn't.  Even though he will be against it, the fact Skelos doesn't represent a conservative district I think also makes it tougher for him to back peddle away on holding a vote.

[Lunar]

I agree, Skelos managing to coordinate a maneuver to avoid the vote altogether seems the only thing that can go wrong.

It seems clear that there will be more votes in the State Senate, when push comes to shove, for gay marriage than against it. There are certainly a lot of State Senators who would rather that this vote not come up at all (as voting for it, or against it, constitutes a "lose, lose" decision for them). Of course, five of those State Senators have broken ranks for the marriage equality side already, so there's not a lot of momentum in the opposite direction.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

After a 4 hour conference Skelos said no decision has been made on whether to allow the vote and the Senate Republicans will meet again tomorrow.

The Assembly will vote on the bill today.

[Holmes]

No decision basically seems like "haha no" to me.

[Dan the Roman]

No decision basically seems like "haha no" to me.

Skelos is trying to figure out what Cuomo is going to do. If there is a vote and it fails, the Senate Map is going to the courts. If Gay Marriage cant pass with a 32-30 GOP majority it can not pass with a larger one, so signing a GOP map would be effectively telling Gays and Gay donors to wait until 2023. And that would be fatal for a Cuomo Presidential bid, especially when expectations have been raised so high and the issue is so high profile.

So if Skelos wants to block it the best bet is to not hold a vote. But he doesn't know if that would piss Cuomo off enough to still send the legislative lines off to the courts.

[Landslide Lyndon]

No decision basically seems like "haha no" to me.

Skelos is trying to figure out what Cuomo is going to do. If there is a vote and it fails, the Senate Map is going to the courts. If Gay Marriage cant pass with a 32-30 GOP majority it can not pass with a larger one, so signing a GOP map would be effectively telling Gays and Gay donors to wait until 2023. And that would be fatal for a Cuomo Presidential bid, especially when expectations have been raised so high and the issue is so high profile.

So if Skelos wants to block it the best bet is to not hold a vote. But he doesn't know if that would piss Cuomo off enough to still send the legislative lines off to the courts.

That's what I was thinking about. If Cuomo REALLY wants this to pass then he can play hardball with the map.
And it's not only a matter of gay voters. The Democratic base has largely accepted without much fuss his budget cuts and limiting union benefits. So it's now his turn to give them something to be excited about.

[Dan the Roman]

No decision basically seems like "haha no" to me.

Skelos is trying to figure out what Cuomo is going to do. If there is a vote and it fails, the Senate Map is going to the courts. If Gay Marriage cant pass with a 32-30 GOP majority it can not pass with a larger one, so signing a GOP map would be effectively telling Gays and Gay donors to wait until 2023. And that would be fatal for a Cuomo Presidential bid, especially when expectations have been raised so high and the issue is so high profile.

So if Skelos wants to block it the best bet is to not hold a vote. But he doesn't know if that would piss Cuomo off enough to still send the legislative lines off to the courts.

That's what I was thinking about. If Cuomo REALLY wants this to pass then he can play hardball with the map.
And it's not only a matter of gay voters. The Democratic base has largely accepted without much fuss his budget cuts and limiting union benefits. So it's now his turn to give them something to be excited about.

True. The big thing is, given what he has already done, I just do not see how he could get away with signing a compromise map if Skelos spits in his face on it. There are a whole lot of rich donors who will care immensely, in addition to all the partisan maneuvering.

[Cincinnatus]

No one wants to be that deciding vote.  The local papers and News stations are covering this quite a lot recently and that's their opinion.  They figure that the one person who crosses the aisle, will become vilified by Republican voters.  Seeing as how they're having trouble getting several members of the party to vote in favor, no one wants to be that deciding vote. 

This vote still isn't covered as much as the state trying to collect the tax from Indian reservations.  Now there's a New York state journalists paradise.