In that case, assuming a neutral political atmosphere with middling-quality candidates (think election 2000)...
An explanation for some of my choices:
Rhode Island - is more working-class and Catholic than much of the rest of New England
Kentucky and Tennessee - the home of right-to-work laws. Expect both to be close.
South Dakota - is more reliant on Federal farm subsidies than North Dakota.
Utah - nearly evenly split. Unlike a lot of Republican 'base states', there's really no room in it for economic populism, being one of the richest states in the Union; but it's also one of the most socially conservative, and a vast majority of the non-Mormons would probably be inclined to vote Populist to spite the Mormon hierarchy. It could easily go either way.
Wisconsin - given recent events in their state and the fact they're a tad more socially conservative than Minnesota (in my view), I'd incline to give them narrowly to the Populists.
New Mexico - could easily flip, depending on the immigrant situation.
Washington - would be a swing state, given the nature of the defense economy in parts of the State. I think the latte-liberals of Seattle are just strong enough to hold it for the Libertarians.
By my (admittedly fallible) judgment, the
Libertarians narrowly defeat the
Populists, 279/259.
