Quinnipiac, Pennsylvania, June 2011

[pbrower2a]

In possible presidential election matchups, President Obama tops Romney 47 - 40 percent and leads Santorum 49 - 38 percent. Independent voters back Obama, 41 - 37 percent over Romney and 46 - 35 percent over Santorum.

Obama gets a split 48 - 48 percent job approval rating in Pennsylvania, compared to a negative 42 - 53 percent April 28, his lowest Quinnipiac University poll number in the Keystone State. Independent voters split 48 - 47 percent, compared to a negative 37 - 57 percent April 28th.

Voters say 48 - 46 percent that Obama deserves to be reelected, also up from a negative 42 - 52 percent. Again, independent voters go from a negative 37 - 56 percent April 28 to a slightly negative 46 - 49 percent today.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1611

Presidential approval in Pennsylvania is now at thee point in which the Republicans would now need a very strong nominee to challenge President Obama successfully in Pennsylvania.  Mitt Romney apparently falls well short, as does everyone else, including Rick Santorum, who would probably do very well among Pennsylvania Republicans. But if he is doing that badly in a State in which he is well known and is still close to the national average in political alignment, just imagine how he would do nationwide.   

[J. J.]

I'm not thrilled with Quinnipiac in PA, but these are still good numbers.

I would not write off PA for Obama as of yet.

[Grumps]

Yeah it's not a gimme Obama state, though I think will ultimately go to him.  He's going to need to spend some time and money here.

[bullmoose88]

Its going to take a great candidate and/or a continuation/worsening of the current economic climate for PA to turn Pubbie...it can happen though right now its not probable (and I'd hope that even the strongest Rs would prefer to see the country's fortunes improve rather than be in such a way as to put PA in play)...but lets really examine this next year...whatever the circumstances might be.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac didn't ask about Gingrich, Pawlenty, or Palin, so I'm not changing anything on them. The President would now has a 7% edge over Romney, and that would make Pennsylvania tough for Romney.

I'm not dropping results for Gingrich until he officially drops out.

Obama vs. Romney



Obama vs. Gingrich



Obama vs. Palin



Obama vs. Pawlenty




Favorite Sons:


Obama vs. local favorite sons




DeMint -- South Carolina
Santorum -- Pennsylvania
Romney -- Michigan and New Hampshire
Pawlenty -- Minnesota
Thune -- South Dakota
Gingrich -- Georgia
Bachmann -- Minnesota (but I am showing her in Iowa instead because of Pawlenty)
Palin -- Arizona (she is allegedly moving there) and Alaska
Perry -- Texas
Cain -- Georgia (but I will show him in North Carolina)

Obama -- Hawaii and Illinois...he will tie himself!

[Lief]

Obama leads the strongest Republican candidate by 7

J.J.: I would not write off PA for Obama as of yet.

[J. J.]

Obama leads the strongest Republican candidate by 7

J.J.: I would not write off PA for Obama as of yet.

You would write PA off?  I wouldn't based on either Q poll.

[timothyinMD]

In possible presidential election matchups, President Obama tops Romney 47 - 40 percent and leads Santorum 49 - 38 percent. Independent voters back Obama, 41 - 37 percent over Romney and 46 - 35 percent over Santorum.

Obama gets a split 48 - 48 percent job approval rating in Pennsylvania, compared to a negative 42 - 53 percent April 28, his lowest Quinnipiac University poll number in the Keystone State. Independent voters split 48 - 47 percent, compared to a negative 37 - 57 percent April 28th.

Voters say 48 - 46 percent that Obama deserves to be reelected, also up from a negative 42 - 52 percent. Again, independent voters go from a negative 37 - 56 percent April 28 to a slightly negative 46 - 49 percent today.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1611

Presidential approval in Pennsylvania is now at thee point in which the Republicans would now need a very strong nominee to challenge President Obama successfully in Pennsylvania.  Mitt Romney apparently falls well short, as does everyone else, including Rick Santorum, who would probably do very well among Pennsylvania Republicans. But if he is doing that badly in a State in which he is well known and is still close to the national average in political alignment, just imagine how he would do nationwide.   

Jeepers!! A poll 17 months out shows Obama winning against nobody.  Whatever will we do!?

[Grumps]

J.J., the way you phrased your response is confusing to Lief and probably everyone else.  I think you're saying Obama needs to do some work here to win, correct? 

[pbrower2a]

In possible presidential election matchups, President Obama tops Romney 47 - 40 percent and leads Santorum 49 - 38 percent. Independent voters back Obama, 41 - 37 percent over Romney and 46 - 35 percent over Santorum.

Obama gets a split 48 - 48 percent job approval rating in Pennsylvania, compared to a negative 42 - 53 percent April 28, his lowest Quinnipiac University poll number in the Keystone State. Independent voters split 48 - 47 percent, compared to a negative 37 - 57 percent April 28th.

Voters say 48 - 46 percent that Obama deserves to be reelected, also up from a negative 42 - 52 percent. Again, independent voters go from a negative 37 - 56 percent April 28 to a slightly negative 46 - 49 percent today.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1611

Presidential approval in Pennsylvania is now at thee point in which the Republicans would now need a very strong nominee to challenge President Obama successfully in Pennsylvania.  Mitt Romney apparently falls well short, as does everyone else, including Rick Santorum, who would probably do very well among Pennsylvania Republicans. But if he is doing that badly in a State in which he is well known and is still close to the national average in political alignment, just imagine how he would do nationwide.   

Jeepers!! A poll 17 months out shows Obama winning against nobody.  Whatever will we do!?

Republicans basically need the new Ronald Reagan to have a chance defeat President Obama.  

[Keystone Phil]

Other polls have showed Obama with an approval rating in the low 40s so this is anything but a lock for him.

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

Why bother having Obama vs.Gingrich maps? Or Palin for that matter. Or Pawlenty actually. He's unknown to majority of people polled, which won't be the case if he ends up the nominee.  Pawlenty's still alive despite the early obits after his debate fumbles. His bigger problem than that is Bachmann showing she's got a much better camera presence than Palin and Perry seeming more determined to run by the minute.  But the point is, his head-to-head maps have zero value.

--Only headers I think makes sense is Romney.  Not because he can't lose the nomination but because of the people who could conceivably be nominated, he's the only one people know.

[krazen1211]

Not a huge concern. It's using a registered voter model that will naturally far outdo typical Democratic turnout.

More importantly the bulk of the undecideds are in central and northwest PA.

[Tender Branson]

Other polls have showed Obama with an approval rating in the low 40s so this is anything but a lock for him.

The latest Susquehanna poll had Obama at 41% or 42% approval, but this poll also showed 30% of PA Democrats disapproving, while only 60% approved. This poll was retarded. PA is not Oklahoma or West Virginia, where 40-50% of "Democrats" disapprove.

[TheGlobalizer]

Yeah it's not a gimme Obama state, though I think will ultimately go to him.  He's going to need to spend some time and money here.

[Governor NVGonzalez]

I'm not thrilled with Quinnipiac in PA, but these are still good numbers.

I would not write off PA for Obama as of yet.

It is likely that PA will go to Obama, but the President will have to make sure it somehow doesn´t slip out of his hands and campaign a little there.

[Badger]

Meh. PA isn't going to flip the election one way or the other. If Obama wins as expected, he could still lose like Kerry and Gore. If he loses PA, the GOP candidate is on a romp and may break 350 electoral votes.

[pbrower2a]

Not a huge concern. It's using a registered voter model that will naturally far outdo typical Democratic turnout.

More importantly the bulk of the undecideds are in central and northwest PA.

Unless Republican hacks have an effective campaign of voter suppression that makes new registration nearly impossible and get away with it... in Presidential elections, a "registered voter" model is closer to reality than a "likely voter" model. There remains no evidence that there won't be a large number of new voters in Pennsylvania.

Remember -- Mitt Romney still has a 7% gap to make up in Pennsylvania, and that won't be easy in a D-leaning state.  

[krazen1211]

Not a huge concern. It's using a registered voter model that will naturally far outdo typical Democratic turnout.

More importantly the bulk of the undecideds are in central and northwest PA.

Unless Republican hacks have an effective campaign of voter suppression that makes new registration nearly impossible and get away with it... in Presidential elections, a "registered voter" model is closer to reality than a "likely voter" model. There remains no evidence that there won't be a large number of new voters in Pennsylvania.

Remember -- Mitt Romney still has a 7% gap to make up in Pennsylvania, and that won't be easy in a D-leaning state.  

In Pennsylvania, by registration, 51% of voters are Democrats, but in any election, only about 42-44% of the voters are.

It's not a fast growing state in population, nor are there massive new sources of young people here.

[Invisible Obama]

It only flips if Obama is losing badly, even in close elections it breaks Democratic. That said, this is a decent lead for him at this point.

[pbrower2a]

Not a huge concern. It's using a registered voter model that will naturally far outdo typical Democratic turnout.

More importantly the bulk of the undecideds are in central and northwest PA.

Unless Republican hacks have an effective campaign of voter suppression that makes new registration nearly impossible and get away with it... in Presidential elections, a "registered voter" model is closer to reality than a "likely voter" model. There remains no evidence that there won't be a large number of new voters in Pennsylvania.

Remember -- Mitt Romney still has a 7% gap to make up in Pennsylvania, and that won't be easy in a D-leaning state.  

In Pennsylvania, by registration, 51% of voters are Democrats, but in any election, only about 42-44% of the voters are.

It's not a fast growing state in population, nor are there massive new sources of young people here.

People too young to vote in 2008. Pennsylvanians did have babies between 1990 and 1994, and those kids are often still in Pennsylvania.  Remember -- in all states, many of the oldest voters die off and new voters -- young voters -- typically replace them.  Nothing says that those younger voters will be more Republican than the state as a whole.   

[The Professor]

Not a huge concern. It's using a registered voter model that will naturally far outdo typical Democratic turnout.

More importantly the bulk of the undecideds are in central and northwest PA.

Unless Republican hacks have an effective campaign of voter suppression that makes new registration nearly impossible and get away with it... in Presidential elections, a "registered voter" model is closer to reality than a "likely voter" model. There remains no evidence that there won't be a large number of new voters in Pennsylvania.

Remember -- Mitt Romney still has a 7% gap to make up in Pennsylvania, and that won't be easy in a D-leaning state.  

In Pennsylvania, by registration, 51% of voters are Democrats, but in any election, only about 42-44% of the voters are.

It's not a fast growing state in population, nor are there massive new sources of young people here.

Pennsylvanians did have babies between 1990 and 1994,

How do Pennsylvanians have babies?

[Jackson]

Not a huge concern. It's using a registered voter model that will naturally far outdo typical Democratic turnout.

More importantly the bulk of the undecideds are in central and northwest PA.

Unless Republican hacks have an effective campaign of voter suppression that makes new registration nearly impossible and get away with it... in Presidential elections, a "registered voter" model is closer to reality than a "likely voter" model. There remains no evidence that there won't be a large number of new voters in Pennsylvania.

Remember -- Mitt Romney still has a 7% gap to make up in Pennsylvania, and that won't be easy in a D-leaning state.  

In Pennsylvania, by registration, 51% of voters are Democrats, but in any election, only about 42-44% of the voters are.

It's not a fast growing state in population, nor are there massive new sources of young people here.

Pennsylvanians did have babies between 1990 and 1994,

How do Pennsylvanians have babies?

Carefully.

[Senator Snowstalker]

Not a huge concern. It's using a registered voter model that will naturally far outdo typical Democratic turnout.

More importantly the bulk of the undecideds are in central and northwest PA.

Unless Republican hacks have an effective campaign of voter suppression that makes new registration nearly impossible and get away with it... in Presidential elections, a "registered voter" model is closer to reality than a "likely voter" model. There remains no evidence that there won't be a large number of new voters in Pennsylvania.

Remember -- Mitt Romney still has a 7% gap to make up in Pennsylvania, and that won't be easy in a D-leaning state.  

In Pennsylvania, by registration, 51% of voters are Democrats, but in any election, only about 42-44% of the voters are.

It's not a fast growing state in population, nor are there massive new sources of young people here.

Pennsylvanians did have babies between 1990 and 1994,

How do Pennsylvanians have babies?

The ruffed grouse brings them to couples.