Would Clinton have won the white female vote in 2008?

[tallguy23]

I was looking at exit polls from 208 and saw that McCain won 55% of the overall white vote and 53% of white women. How would Clinton have done if she were the nominee in 2008?

[tpfkaw]

It depends on whether she has her drawn-out primary battle with Obama or not.  It tends to be forgotten today, but at the start of the '08 campaign Hillary was essentially the Democratic version of Sarah Palin - perceived as ideologically extreme and unpopular to non-Democrats.  She initially polled worse nationally than any other Democratic candidate.  It was only via her campaign against Obama that she was able to establish herself as a "moderate" and win the support of independent voters.  (Once again proving that politics is far more about perceptions than the actual issues).  So if she wins the nomination in a walk, then no, and she'd in fact probably perform under Obama's IRL result, whereas if she wins the nomination in a drawn-out battle like in '08, then probably yes.

[Napoleon]

Ideologically extreme Democrats wouldn't come close to sweeping upstate New York like Clinton did.

[tpfkaw]

Ideologically extreme Democrats wouldn't come close to sweeping upstate New York like Clinton did.

I'm not saying that she was ideologically extreme (well, I think she is ideologically extreme if not in the sense of being a downwards wealth-redistributionist, but that's neither here nor there), nor am I saying she was perceived as such in New York, however, she was perceived as such nationally.

The early polling doesn't lie.

[Badger]

Ideologically extreme Democrats wouldn't come close to sweeping upstate New York like Clinton did.

I'm not saying that she was ideologically extreme (well, I think she is ideologically extreme if not in the sense of being a downwards wealth-redistributionist, but that's neither here nor there), nor am I saying she was perceived as such in New York, however, she was perceived as such nationally.

The early polling doesn't lie.

You're actually citing a poll from mid-2006 to support your argument??

Or for that matter, relying on a poll that claims Clinton (or any Democrat) would carry Florida but lose Rhode Island??

[tpfkaw]

You're actually citing a poll from mid-2006 to support your argument??

Fair enough, here are some polls from mid to late 2007.  Clinton loses Oregon, Washington, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey (!) to McCain.  Early polling from 2008 also had her losing Michigan, although there weren't any polls around this time in 2007.

It's amazing that people have such short memories.  If you look at discussions from 2007 on this very forum, all the Republicans are gloating over how Hillary is the next McGovern and how easy she'll be to defeat, and many of the Democrats are fretting over her candidacy and expressing the wish that Obama defeat her for the nomination because he was polling much better.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

And after the economic collapse, Clinton would do better with White Southerners and win by a similar margin to Obama, especially without the race-baiting ability.

[Paul Kemp]

And after the economic collapse, Clinton would do better with White Southerners and win by a similar margin to Obama, especially without the race-baiting ability.

Precisely.

[Badger]

You're actually citing a poll from mid-2006 to support your argument??

Fair enough, here are some polls from mid to late 2007.  Clinton loses Oregon, Washington, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey (!) to McCain.  Early polling from 2008 also had her losing Michigan, although there weren't any polls around this time in 2007.

It's amazing that people have such short memories.  If you look at discussions from 2007 on this very forum, all the Republicans are gloating over how Hillary is the next McGovern and how easy she'll be to defeat, and many of the Democrats are fretting over her candidacy and expressing the wish that Obama defeat her for the nomination because he was polling much better.

On this latter point I'll agree. People trying to say it would've been "different" with Hillary as president forget what an utterly divisive and reviled person Clinton was to the right--arguably the top of the list until Obama's ascent.

[minionofmidas]

No. However, Barack Obama would have if he were a white female.

[UpcomingYouthvoter]

 

Clinton would have no trouble winning the white female vote. However, she would lose white males strongly.

[DS0816]

Clinton would have no trouble wining the white female vote. However, she would lose white males strongly.

^ What does this mean? That white males would shift in the direction of the Republicans in an election that, as it turned out, the GOP saw a 9.72% shift from the previous election (won by in 2004 George W. Bush, whose 2.46% ranks as historically the lowest national margin for a re-elected incumbent).