2011 Governor's Races in LA, MS, and KY

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Caroline Fayard (the woman who lost Lt. Gov. to Dardenne last year) is the only potential candidate I've heard of.

[Meeker]

On a related note, what's the current LA law on how the election works? Are they still using a jungle primary where you can win it all in October if you have a majority?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

On a related note, what's the current LA law on how the election works? Are they still using a jungle primary where you can win it all in October if you have a majority?

Yes, that's never been changed for state elections, and federal elections are going back to that next year.

[Meeker]

Rich guy John Georges - last seen losing the New Orleans Mayoral race as a Democrat - has apparently loaned himself $10 million dollars to run for something statewide. No word what it is or whether he'll run as a Democrat (in 2007 he ran as an Indy).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Fayard is running for Secretary of State so Democrats are still stuck without a candidate.

[RogueBeaver]

LA: odds by my estimation are around 60% and increasing that Jindal will be unopposed. The far-right lunatic Northcutt has dropped out so Jindal is the only candidate running. Blanco has $2 million in the kitty but she's not that stupid. Georges is probably not running for governor. This frees Jindal up to help out those downticket, especially washing away the obstructionists in the Legislature so he can get on with his legislative agenda.

[Rowan]

When is the filing deadline?

[RogueBeaver]

Filing deadline is Sept. 1, the election Oct. 22.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

LA: odds by my estimation are around 60% and increasing that Jindal will be unopposed. The far-right lunatic Northcutt has dropped out so Jindal is the only candidate running. Blanco has $2 million in the kitty but she's not that stupid. Georges is probably not running for governor. This frees Jindal up to help out those downticket, especially washing away the obstructionists in the Legislature so he can get on with his legislative agenda.

There have been so many party switchers in Louisiana I doubt anyone is left to "obstruct" Jindal's agenda.

[RogueBeaver]

It's a bipartisan thing, ironically a lot of the opposition is coming from Rrpublicans. Enough fresh faces with Mansion loyalties can fix that. Though I suspect that most of the Republican opposition are the recent floor-crossers. I mean, it wouldn't be unprecedented to run without opposition: Thune did last year.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Louisiana will likely be Jindal vs. a sacrificial lamb. Mississippi is likely R (only not safe because I see a bit of potential in Gene Taylor), West Virginia will easily vote for Tomblin, and Kentucky is lean to likely D.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Louisiana will likely be Jindal vs. a sacrificial lamb. Mississippi is likely R (only not safe because I see a bit of potential in Gene Taylor), West Virginia will easily vote for Tomblin, and Kentucky is lean to likely D.

Gene Taylor is not running, the Democrats just have some third-tier candidates running.

[Meeker]

It's a bipartisan thing, ironically a lot of the opposition is coming from Rrpublicans. Enough fresh faces with Mansion loyalties can fix that. Though I suspect that most of the Republican opposition are the recent floor-crossers. I mean, it wouldn't be unprecedented to run without opposition: Thune did last year.

A Senator running unopposed is quite a bit different from a Governor running unopposed. I don't think that has happened since somewhere in the South in the 1960's.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

There will probably be *somebody* on the ballot, but whether they do any better than any of the competitors from '07 is questionable.

[RogueBeaver]

Somewhere between 65-70%. The last incumbent election in 1999 had Foster trouncing Cold Cash Jefferson 62-35, and Louisiana was nowhere near as Republican at the state level as it is now. All that's left if there's a Democratic nominee are hardcore liberals and blacks.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

At this point, the only Democratic Southern states at a state level are WV, KY, AR, and to a lesser extent NC, the latter becoming a more consistent swing/lean R state. At a local level, Democrats are still strong throughout the South, though I expect that to change at least in Alabama, Louisiana, and the like.

[Mr.Phips]

At this point, the only Democratic Southern states at a state level are WV, KY, AR, and to a lesser extent NC, the latter becoming a more consistent swing/lean R state. At a local level, Democrats are still strong throughout the South, though I expect that to change at least in Alabama, Louisiana, and the like.

Did you see what happened in the 2010 elections?  Democrats lost everything in Alabama outside of black majority districts.  The same thing happened in Louisiana through party switches. 

[tmthforu94]

At this point, the only Democratic Southern states at a state level are WV, KY, AR, and to a lesser extent NC, the latter becoming a more consistent swing/lean R state. At a local level, Democrats are still strong throughout the South, though I expect that to change at least in Alabama, Louisiana, and the like.

Did you see what happened in the 2010 elections?  Democrats lost everything in Alabama outside of black majority districts.  The same thing happened in Louisiana through party switches. 

Ditto. I think we're going to start seeing a trend in Southern states. Republicans have performed very well there in Presidential and Senatorial races as of late, but were failing at the state and county level. Southern Indiana is, in my opinion, more connected to the South than the "Rust Belt" politically. Democrats usually do very well here on a local level. Even here, I've seen longtime Democrats surprisingly losing.

I think part of this could be at the fault of Barack Obama. He's much more liberal than any recent President, but more importantly, is the first Democratic President we've had since JFK who wasn't from the South.

[JacobNC]

Louisiana will likely be Jindal vs. a sacrificial lamb. Mississippi is likely R (only not safe because I see a bit of potential in Gene Taylor), West Virginia will easily vote for Tomblin, and Kentucky is lean to likely D.

Gene Taylor is not running, the Democrats just have some third-tier candidates running.

I hope Mississippi Democrats would never let Taylor survive a statewide primary.  The primary electorate would be what - 70-80% Black - and Taylor voted for John McCain.

[Jackson]

Gene Taylor is also the only Democrat that could win the election. Shocker.

[JacobNC]

Gene Taylor is also the only Democrat that could win the election. Shocker.

With most blue dogs I would say it's better to have them than a Republican, but Gene Taylor has voted with the Democrats on next to nothing, I have little respect for him.

[Badger]

Gene Taylor is also the only Democrat that could win the election. Shocker.

With most blue dogs I would say it's better to have them than a Republican, but Gene Taylor has voted with the Democrats on next to nothing, I have little respect for him.

It's MS. I'd rather have a Blue Dog who votes with Dems 50-60% of the time and keeps Democratic control of Congress rather than someone who votes with the Tea Party 95-100% of the time.

[7,052,770]

The only notable races in Mississippi this year are the Republican primaries.

[angus]

The only notable races in Mississippi this year are the Republican primaries.

Welcome back Harry.  Haven't seen your posts in a while.