NH-Magellan Strategies: Romney remains the man to beat

[Tender Branson]

42% Romney
10% Bachmann
10% Paul
  7% Palin
  6% Giuliani
  5% Pawlenty
  4% Cain
  3% Gingrich
  3% Huntsman
  2% Santorum
  8% Undecided

Voter Opinion of Candidate Performance in WMUR/Union Leader/CNN Debate

"Among the candidates that participated in Monday night’s debate, who do you think
had the strongest performance?" (Among respondents who answered yes to watching
the debate, 391 respondents, 4.95% margin of error on this question)

39% Romney
28% Bachmann
  8% Paul
  6% Gingrich
  4% Cain
  2% Pawlenty
  2% Santorum
  4% None
  7% Undecided

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies are pleased to present the topline results of a 727N autodial survey of likely 2012 New Hampshire Republican primary voters, and independent voters that are likely to vote in the 2012 Republican Presidential primary.

The interviews were conducted June 14th ‐ 15th, 2011. This survey has a margin of error of +/‐ 3.63% at the 95 percent confidence interval. The survey results are weighted based upon voter turnout demographics from the 2008 Republican Presidential primary.

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/New-Hampshire-2012-GOP-Presidential-Primary-Debate-Survey-Release-061611.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Romney looks really solid these days ...

[Tender Branson]

These results are also strikingly similar to the Boston Globe poll before the debate, just with the difference that Bachmann doubled her support.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=136710.0

[Lief]

Do you think at this rate candidates might start ignoring/skipping NH? They could, somewhat reasonably, make the "Romney lives here and was the governor next door so he has a homestate advantage basically" argument. Because he's running a good 10-20 percent above his already commanding national numbers in the state.

[King]

Do you think at this rate candidates might start ignoring/skipping NH? They could, somewhat reasonably, make the "Romney lives here and was the governor next door so he has a homestate advantage basically" argument. Because he's running a good 10-20 percent above his already commanding national numbers in the state.

Romney isn't going to get a bounce from winning New Hampshire.  Everybody already assumes he's Option A.

[Likely Voter]

These results are also strikingly similar to the Boston Globe poll before the debate, just with the difference that Bachmann doubled her support.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=136710.0

Except that Bachmann went from 4% to 10% and 2nd place and Guilliani had the reverse effect

[Mr. Morden]

More than half of NH Republicans watched the debate?  That sounds unrealistically high.  Do New Hampshirites really have nothing better to do than watch such an early presidential primary debate on CNN?  I realize many of us watched it, but we're political geeks.  These debates usually don't get terribly high ratings.  But maybe New Hampshire primary voters really are *that* devoted?

[crypto-fascist superhero]

More than half of NH Republicans watched the debate?  That sounds unrealistically high.  Do New Hampshirites really have nothing better to do than watch such an early presidential primary debate on CNN?  I realize many of us watched it, but we're political geeks.  These debates usually don't get terribly high ratings.  But maybe New Hampshire primary voters really are *that* devoted?

People lie.  (It is certainly possible more than half at least read an article about the debate).

[Mr. Morden]

More than half of NH Republicans watched the debate?  That sounds unrealistically high.  Do New Hampshirites really have nothing better to do than watch such an early presidential primary debate on CNN?  I realize many of us watched it, but we're political geeks.  These debates usually don't get terribly high ratings.  But maybe New Hampshire primary voters really are *that* devoted?

People lie.  (It is certainly possible more than half at least read an article about the debate).

Yes, that's what I was getting at without directly saying it. 

[RodPresident]

NH remains an interesting place to fight, even if Mitt goes to a landslide. Apportionment of delegates is proportional to who gets more than 10%.

[Jayhawker]

Certainly good news for Romney. I honestly am having a hard time imagining a scenario where Romney doesn't win New Hampshire. Possibly a huge surge by Huntsman or Giuliani, but that'd be unlikely.

[Zarn]

If Paul wins Iowa... he is the biggest threat to Romney in every fi-con state. Not to say that Paul couldn't win so-con states at that point.

[JulioMadrid]

If Paul wins Iowa... he is the biggest threat to Romney in every fi-con state. Not to say that Paul couldn't win so-con states at that point.

Paul won't win Iowa.

and... you may call me crazy, but I think it would be better for romney if he dropped some points in NH, so other candidates campaign there... because if everybody skips NH, he won't get any boost after carrying the state.

[Mr. Morden]

If Paul wins Iowa... he is the biggest threat to Romney in every fi-con state. Not to say that Paul couldn't win so-con states at that point.

Paul won't win Iowa.

and... you may call me crazy, but I think it would be better for romney if he dropped some points in NH, so other candidates campaign there... because if everybody skips NH, he won't get any boost after carrying the state.

Huntsman is definitely not skipping NH.  He's already planning to skip Iowa, so NH is his only chance.