2012 - Cameron's End

[Phony Moderate]

April 3rd 2012:



Good afternoon, this is Huw Edwards reporting live from Westminister. MPs are this afternoon set to vote on the future of this government. Most analysts are predicting that the government will lose the vote, and that David Cameron will be forced to go to Buckingham Palace and call an early General Election. The popularity of the government plummeted after the economy went back into recession in January of this year, and Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats ended the coalition after nearly two years last week.

VONC RESULTS:

Confident in the Government - 314
Not confident in the Government - 336

April 4th 2012:

After a trip to Buckingham Palace, David Cameron announces that the Queen has accepted his request for a dissoultion of government, and that the election date will be Thursday May 3rd 2012.





On election announcement day, Labour still has a 17-point lead, according to YouGov.

Tonight's YouGov poll says:

Labour - 46%
Conservatives - 29%
Liberal Democrats - 9%

Government approval ratings are:

Approve - 24%
Disapprove - 64%

And leaders' ratings are:

CAMERON:

Good job - 31%
Bad job - 65%

MILIBAND:

Good job - 37%
Bad job - 48%

CLEGG:

Good job - 23%
Bad job - 68%

Mike Smithson

644 Comments

28. Well, PM Miliband it is then....even though the public don't really like him either.

57. Hillarious. 13 years of Labour f**king it up, 2 years of the ConDems f**king it up even more....what a great system we have.

86. I suspect that the polls over the next four weeks. Cameron, despite being terrible at governance, isn't as bad at campaigning.

158. Time to start placing our bets on the next Tory and Lib Dem leaders....Bodger and Badger?

280. Oh dear, back to the Left we go....

358. Those numbers remind me a bit of the 1997 BBC exit poll....lol.

[Phony Moderate]

April 7th 2012:



Main Party Leaders Agree To One Televised Debate

David Cameron, Ed Miliband, and Nick Clegg have agreed to take part in a single televised debate, which is to be hosted by the BBC and held on April 26th 2012 - one week before the voters go to the polls. In 2010, three debates were held, and they completely changed the narrative of the campaign, with Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats getting a huge poll bounce after the first.

April 8th 2012:



Miliband and Balls only have a slight advantage over Cameron and Osbourne, according to ICM.

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Mike Smithson

10. Well, what do you expect? Miliband is on par with IDS in terms of charisma, and Balls is too aggressive.

35. Labour could do with a televised Chancellors' debate. Balls is at least on par with Osbourne in terms of debating skills.

88. I am confident that the British public will not put Liebour back into government for at least another couple of parliaments.

154. Surely anyone's better than the ConDems? Well, maybe not the BNP....

April 12th 2012:

The Conservatives run a party election broadcast which heavily criticises the previous Labour government. It displays images of the War in Iraq, the Northern Rock crisis, and various 'interesting' images of Gordon Brown.

April 16th 2012:



YouGov has Labour lead down to 12 points

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And Miliband's popularity is sinking.

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Mike Smithson

12. Ah, so Cameron's scare tactics are working so far then....

34. UKIP are on 9%. Farage is doing a pretty good job at picking up disallusioned Tory voters.

96. Not exactly good news for the Lib Dems either.

[You kip if you want to...]

UKIP to finish 3rd!

[Phony Moderate]

April 17th - April 25th 2012:

Labour's campaign is focused on the narrative of the "Same Old Tories". The Liberal Democrats are running a positive campaign, attacking neither Labour nor the Tories. On the day before the debate, an ICM poll shows Labour's lead down to 7%.

April 26th 2012:



The Official 2012 Televised Leaders Debate Thread

Please discuss the proceedings in this thread. And please keep the discussion as civil as possibly. Thank you and enjoy.

Mike Smithson

955 Comments

75. Great opening statement from Miliband there. Better than I was expecting at least.

154. OMG....Clegg just apologized for entering a coalition with the Tories....

368. Miliband is doing great.

445. Clegg is coming across as honest and geniune here.

550. Cameron is hapless.

615. Ed is giving Dave the Mulroney treatment.

785. Well, after that, I will be voting Labour. And I have been a Tory voter for the past 30 years, for the record.

YouGov Snap Poll:

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April 27th 2012:



ComRes shows a huge post-debate bounce for Labour

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Mike Smithson

752 Comments

35. Clegg may just hold on to his leadership after the election, methinks.

80. I wish these numbers were true, but I doubt that they are.

April 28th - May 2nd 2012:

The rest of the campaign consists of Miliband being more highly regarded by the media than before the debate, Cameron looking resigned to defeat, and Clegg insisting the the Lib Dems are the true alternative to the Tories.

May 3rd 2012:

Ed Milband goes on a marathon barnstorm around many marginal seats across the country thoughout the morning.

Phone rings

WH: Hello?
DS: Yeah, it's Don.
WH: Good morning. Any news?
DS: Yeah.....and it's not great. All the signs are that we are doing worse than the polls predicted.
WH: W...w....what? Worse than that Mori poll which showed us down 27%?
DS: Well, as bad as that anyway. But it's still early. We may do better.
WH: I guess we can forget about you know....winning this election.
DS: Haha, yes, unfortunately.
WH: Alright, well call me back when you get more news.
DS: Will do. See you later.

Phone call ends

[MAINEiac4434]

This is good. Please continue.

[You kip if you want to...]

This is good. Please continue.

[joevsimp]

UKIP to finish 3rd!

Depends how you count it, I'm fairly sure that if them and the Greens both got 10 percent, the Greens would end up with more seats,

[Harry Hayfield]

Average of polls during campaign
Labour 45% (+16% on 2010)
Conservatives 29% (-7% on 2010)
Liberal Democrats 11% (-12% on 2010)
Others 15% (+3% on 2010)

Others Breakdown

Scottish National Party 4% (+2% on 2010)
Green Party 3% (+2% on 2010)
United Kingdom Independence Party 3% (unchanged on 2010)
Plaid Cymru 1% (unchanged on 2010)
British National Party 1% (-1% on 2010)
Others 3% (unchanged on 2010)

Forecast House of Commons
Labour 393 seats (+135 seats)
Conservatives 221 seats (-86 seats)
Scottish National Party 11 seats (+5 seats)
Liberal Democrats 3 seats (-54 seats)
Plaid Cymru 3 seats (unchanged)
Other Parties 19 seats (unchanged)
Labour majority of 130

[Simfan34]

Poor Lib Dems.

[Dr. Cynic]

As bad as Clegg has been, I don't think they'd lose 54 seats.

[Leftbehind]

Is it likely that UKIP wouldn't improve upon their 2010 result, especially when the Tories are in the 20's?

Good stuff, none the less.

[MAINEiac4434]

Too bad for Clegg & Co.

But go Miliband.

[afleitch]

Need some more tissues?