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+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Election What-ifs?
| | |-+  Alternative Elections (Moderators: Bacon King, Dallasfan65)
| | | |-+  2016: Sen. Jim Matheson (D) vs. Sen. Scott Brown (R)
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Author Topic: 2016: Sen. Jim Matheson (D) vs. Sen. Scott Brown (R)  (Read 560 times)
Skill and Chance
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« on: July 18, 2011, 03:26:26 pm »
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Assume that Obama gets re-elected and there is an anti-Mormon scandal involving the GOP nominee that sweeps Matheson into the UT senate seat in 2012.  Matheson wins by a wide margin and Obama actually gets 45% in Utah.  Brown wins a full term by a comfortable margin in MA.

Brown shifts to a barely pro-life position and Matheson shifts to become barely pro-choice.

Could this finally break up the Red State/Blue State divide? 
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #1 on: July 18, 2011, 06:12:46 pm »
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Not sure about this.. but it may be something like this:

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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
King
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« Reply #2 on: July 18, 2011, 06:46:57 pm »
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Brown would win easily.
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It's still rather frustrating when you consider how many people with far better work histories than Jeff have to spend months or years unemployed before they finally get an offer.

Life is not fair.
Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3 on: July 18, 2011, 07:25:14 pm »
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Here's my guess:



This is what the state of play would look like in October, assuming a fairly neutral year:

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