2011 Canadian election maps

[mileslunn]

Here is Ontario by county.  The Liberals only won Nipissing District and Toronto, while the NDP dominated Northern Ontario, but only won Hamilton and Essex County in Southern Ontario.  By contrast Southern Ontario was mostly Conservative while in the North they only won Kenora District (or you could include Muskoka and Parry Sound Districts if you count them as Northern Ontario)



Here is the US style again.  The Conservatives got in the 30s in Frontenac County, 40s in Kenora District, Ottawa, Prescott & Russell United Counties, Peel Regional Municipality, Brant County, Haldimand County (rounded up to 50% if rounded off), Wellington County, Waterloo Regional Municipality, and Middlesex County,  They only got over 60% in Lanark County, Stormont, Dundas, & Glengarry United Counties, Leeds and Grenville United Counties, and Kawartha Lakes, so many counties in the 50s.  The NDP got in the 30s in Hamilton, while they got over 50% in only in Cochrane District, Greater Sudbury, and Rainy River District.  The others they won they got in the 40s.  The Liberals failed to get above 36% in any of the counties.

[mileslunn]

Here is Ontario by municipality.  Since this map didn't show all of Nipissing District I left it out although I will give the figures in a later post.  The NDP in Southern Ontario only won Hamilton, Thorold, Welland, Port Colborne, Tecumseh, and Windsor.  The Liberals only won Deep River, Casselman, Kingston, Toronto, and Guelph.  Only in Windsor did the NDP crack the 50% mark while the Liberals in none.  The Tories got above 30% in every municipality using the present boundaries and even pre-amalgmation, Toronto, East York, York, Ottawa, and Vanier were the only ones they failed to crack the 30% mark.  Likewise in Nipissing District, West Nipissing was the only municipality where they got under 30%.

[mileslunn]

Not very clear in terms of colours on my machine so I will just do a colour coded based on winner and US style map.  In the case of Helena Guergis' riding, her vote + the Tories exceeded 50% in every municipality, but it did not exceed 70% in any of them.  Below is the data on winners and which bracket they were in.  I also included the Nipissing District.  I will do separate ones for Toronto, Hamilton, and Ottawa pre-amalgmation.

Tories over 70%

Oil Springs, The Archipelago, North Dundas, South Dundas

Tories in the 60s

Amaranth, East Garafraxa, East Luther-Grand Valley, Aylmer, Bayham, Malahide, Halton Hills, Carlow/Mayo, Tudor & Cashel, South Huron, Beckwith, Carleton Place, Drummond/North Elmsley, Lanark Highlands, Montague, Edwardsburgh/Cardinal , North Grenville, Addington Highlands, Georgian Bay, Osgoode, East Zorra-Tavistock, Norwich, North Perth, Brundell, Lyndoch & Raglan, North Stormont, South Stormont, Erin, Mapleton, Puslinch, East Gwilimbury, Brock, Southwold, North Frontenac, Chatsworth, Georgian Bluffs, Southgate, Bancroft, Centre Hastings, Faraday, Hastings Highlands, Madoc, Stirling-Rawdon, Wollaston, Bluewater, Central Huron, Kawartha Lakes, Enniskillen, Plympton-Wyoming, Warwick, Mississippi Mills, Smiths Falls, Tay Valley, Athens, Augusta, Elizabethtown-Kiteley, Prescott, Rideau Lakes, Westport, Adelaide-Metcalfe, Lucan-Biddulph, Middlesex Centre, North Middlesex, Thames Centre, Lincoln, West Lincoln, Blandford-Blenheim, Southwest Oxford, Tilsonburg, Zorra, McKellar, McDougall, Perry Ryerson, South River, Strong, Whitestone, Havelock-Belmont-Metheun, North Kawartha, Otonabee-South Monaghan, Greater Madawaska, Horton, McNab/Braeside, Bradford-West Gwilimbury, Innisfil, Oro-Medonte, Ramara, Severn, North Dumfries, Wellesley, Woolwich, Centre Wellington, Guelph/Eramosa, Wellington North, Georgina, King

Tories in the 50s

Brant, Arran-Elderslie, Northern Bruce Peninsula, South Bruce Peninsula, Melancthon, Mono, Orangeville, Shelburne, Scugog, Uxbridge, Whitby, Central Elgin, Dutton/Dunwich, Leamington, Central Frontenac, Grey Highlands, Hanover, West Grey, Dysart et Al, Highlands East, Minden Hills, Burlington, Milton, Mamora & Lake, Quinte West, Ashfield-Colborne-Wawanosh, Howick, Huron East, Morris-Turnberry, North Huron, Dawn-Euphemia, Lambton Shores, Petrolia, St. Clair, Perth, Brockville, Front of Yonge, Gananoque, Leeds & Thousands Islands, Merrickville-Wolford, Strathroy-Caradoc, Gravenhurst, Huntsville, Muskoka Lakes, Grimsby, Niagara on the Lake, Pelham, Wainfleet, South Algonquin, Alnwick/Haldimand, Brighton, Carling, Joly, Machar, Magnetewan, Seguin, Sundridge, Caledon, Perth East, Perth South, St. Mary’s, West Perth, Asphodel-Norwood, Cavan-Millbrook-North Monaghan, Duoro-Dummer, Galway-Cavendish-Harvey, Smith-Ennismore-Lakefield, Adamaston/Bromley, Arnprior, Bonnecherre Valley, Madawaska Valley, North Algona-Wilberforce, Renfrew, Whitewater Region, Barrie, Springwater, North Glengarry, South Glengarry, Wimot, Minto, Vaughan, Whitchurch-Stouffville, Brockton, Huron-Kinloss, South Bruce, Chatham-Kent, Mulmur, Clarington, Oshawa, St. Thomas, West Elgin, Kingsville, Meaford, Haldimand, Algonquin Highlands, Oakville, Limerick, Tweed, Tyendinaga, Goderich, Brooke-Alvinston, Point Edward, Greater Nepanee, Newbury, Southwest Middlesex, Bracebridge, Lake of the Bays, Fort Erie, Niagara Falls, St. Catharines, Calvin, Norfolk, Cobourg, Cramahe, Hamilton, Port Hope, Trent Hills, Ingersoll, Woodstock, Armour, Kearney, McMurritch/Monteith, Nipissing, Parry Sound, Parry Sound Unorganized, Powassan, Champlain, East Hawkesbury, Russell, Prince Edward, Killaloe, Hagarty & Richards, Laurentian Valley, Petawawa, Adjala-Tosorontio, Essa, New Tecumseth, Orillia, Tay, Cornwall, Cambridge, Aurora, Newmarket

[mileslunn]

Here is the remainder of the data.

Tories in the 40s

Brantford, Kincardine, Saugeen Shores, Amherstburg, Essex, Lakeshore, LaSalle, Pelee Island, South Frontenac, Owen Sound, Belleville, Desoronto, Sarnia, Loyalist, Stone Mills, Papineau-Cameron, Burk’s Falls, Peterborough, Clarence-Rockland, The Nation, Head, Clara & Maria, Laurentian Hills, Clearview, Midland, Tiny, Wasaga Beach, Richmond Hill, Ajax, Pickering, Frontenac Islands, Blue Mountains, London, Chisholm, Temigami, Ottawa, Callander, Brampton, Mississauga, Stratford, Alfred & Plantaganet, Hawkesbury, Pembroke, Collingwood, Penetanguishene,  Kitchener, Waterloo, Markham

Tories in the 30s

East Ferries, Nipissing Unorganized, Mattawa, and Bonfield

NDP over 50%

Windsor


NDP in the 40s

West Nipissing, Tecumseh, Thorold, Welland, and Port Colborne

NDP in the 30s

Hamilton

Liberals in the 40s

North Bay, Guelph, and Casselman

Liberals in the 30s

Deep River, Kingston, and Toronto

[mileslunn]

Here is Southern Ontario using the US style maps.  You can see in much of the province the Tories got over 50% despite averaging only 44% province wide (although it was 45% in Southern Ontario and 47% when you exclude the 416 area code).  Also shows how urbanized it is as if the rural to urban split population wise was more even, the Tories probably would have gotten over 50% province wide with such a map.

[mileslunn]

Here is Hamilton 2011

The NDP got over 50% in the old city while the Tories got in the 40s in Stoney Creek and Dundas, 50s in Glanbrook and Ancaster and 60s in Flamborough



In the case of Ottawa, the Liberals got in the 40s in Rockcliffe Park, NDP in 30s in Vanier and Ottawa, while the Tories got in the 40s in most of the suburbs (Cumberland, Gloucester, Kanata, and Nepean) while 60s in the rural sections (Goulborn, Osgoode, Rideau, and West Carleton)



While for Toronto it was Tories in the 40s in North York, Liberals in the 30s in Etobicoke and Scarborough, NDP in 40s in Toronto (Old City) while NDP in 30s in York and East York.  Interestingly enough the Liberals were the only party to get above 30% in all of the former municipalities but none over 40%.  Otherwise their vote was far more evenly spread out than the NDP or Conservatives meaning a slight uptick in the GTA could result in a whole wack of new seats at the same time they can get wiped out much easier than the other two parties.  I don't have the boundaries in front of me, but I will try to find them and do a map.

[Hatman 🍁]

Surprised the Liberals won Nipissing. I thought that part of the riding was more Conservative.

[mileslunn]

Surprised the Liberals won Nipissing. I thought that part of the riding was more Conservative.

  Nipissing-Timiskaming also includes three municipalities in Parry Sound District which off course the Conservatives handidly won, the Tories also come out ahead in the Timiskaming portion of Nipissing-Timiskaming although the NDP won the district as a whole.  It was really close and it was really North Bay which I think has over the half the population vs. the rest of the district as North Bay was the only municipality the Liberals won in the Nipissing District. 

[mileslunn]

Looking at how poorly the Liberals did in the neighbouring ridings, I suspect a good chunk of the Liberal vote in Nipissing-Timiskaming were personal Anthony Rota votes, not genuine Liberal votes.  I suspect had he not run, the Liberals would have come in third.

[Hatman 🍁]

Looking at how poorly the Liberals did in the neighbouring ridings, I suspect a good chunk of the Liberal vote in Nipissing-Timiskaming were personal Anthony Rota votes, not genuine Liberal votes.  I suspect had he not run, the Liberals would have come in third.

Not sure how accurate that is. North Bay is usually a Liberal town, at least federally.

[mileslunn]

As promised here is Toronto.



Tories in the North, Liberals on the East and West and NDP in the middle part.  In reality Scarborough and Etobicoke were quite different in results as Scarborough was a three way race while Etobicoke was a two way race.  Etobicoke is a lot wealthier than Scarborough and not nearly as culturally diverse thus more conservative of the two.  Provincially, I expect Scarborough will stay Liberal although the NDP may do well depending on their numbers while Etobicoke is probably more favourable for a Tory pick up although I wouldn't be shocked either if the Liberals take all three ridings.  I expect the NDP to come in third in all three ridings.  In the case of Scarborough I think the NDP support is a lot softer than it is in the downtown where they have a much firmer base.

[mileslunn]

Looking at how poorly the Liberals did in the neighbouring ridings, I suspect a good chunk of the Liberal vote in Nipissing-Timiskaming were personal Anthony Rota votes, not genuine Liberal votes.  I suspect had he not run, the Liberals would have come in third.

Not sure how accurate that is. North Bay is usually a Liberal town, at least federally.

True, although the Liberals have never performed so poorly.  Also in most neighbouring ridings, they were in the teens, whereas Anthony Rota still got above 25% in almost all municipalities in his riding so I think had he gotten 10% lower in the rural portions the Tories would have won the district.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Looking at how poorly the Liberals did in the neighbouring ridings, I suspect a good chunk of the Liberal vote in Nipissing-Timiskaming were personal Anthony Rota votes, not genuine Liberal votes.  I suspect had he not run, the Liberals would have come in third.

Not sure how accurate that is. North Bay is usually a Liberal town, at least federally.

So was Sudbury.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wish you would use some sort of scale on your maps. If you have the raw data, it would be nice if you could send it to me.

[lilTommy]

Here is Ontario by municipality.  Since this map didn't show all of Nipissing District I left it out although I will give the figures in a later post.  The NDP in Southern Ontario only won Hamilton, Thorold, Welland, Port Colborne, Tecumseh, and Windsor.  The Liberals only won Deep River, Casselman, Kingston, Toronto, and Guelph.  Only in Windsor did the NDP crack the 50% mark while the Liberals in none.  The Tories got above 30% in every municipality using the present boundaries and even pre-amalgmation, Toronto, East York, York, Ottawa, and Vanier were the only ones they failed to crack the 30% mark.  Likewise in Nipissing District, West Nipissing was the only municipality where they got under 30%.

Is anyone else surprised the NDP won towns along the lake in Parry Sound and Muskoka? or am i seeing this map wrong? which towns are they?

[Hatman 🍁]

Here is Ontario by municipality.  Since this map didn't show all of Nipissing District I left it out although I will give the figures in a later post.  The NDP in Southern Ontario only won Hamilton, Thorold, Welland, Port Colborne, Tecumseh, and Windsor.  The Liberals only won Deep River, Casselman, Kingston, Toronto, and Guelph.  Only in Windsor did the NDP crack the 50% mark while the Liberals in none.  The Tories got above 30% in every municipality using the present boundaries and even pre-amalgmation, Toronto, East York, York, Ottawa, and Vanier were the only ones they failed to crack the 30% mark.  Likewise in Nipissing District, West Nipissing was the only municipality where they got under 30%.

Is anyone else surprised the NDP won towns along the lake in Parry Sound and Muskoka? or am i seeing this map wrong? which towns are they?

Those are indian reserves. No surprise, really.

[the506]

506, you are awesome!

Miles - it may not necessarily be racially driven, just that like many other areas, the First Nations population votes NDP, and like in many other areas, the (white) rural areas vote Conservative. It may be demographic without being racial, if you follow my drift.

Seems to me the only way aboriginals ever vote Conservative is if one of their own is the local candidate - see Peter Penashue.

[the506]

Alberta's up!

http://www.the506.com/elxnmaps/can2011/

[mileslunn]

Alberta's up!

http://www.the506.com/elxnmaps/can2011/

Is the area around the Calgary Airport largely South Asian?  I am surprised how well the Liberals did here as having been to Calgary numerous time, Liberal is a like a four letter word there.  I don't think I've meant anybody from Calgary who votes Liberal, whereas I have from Edmonton.

[mileslunn]

506, you are awesome!

Miles - it may not necessarily be racially driven, just that like many other areas, the First Nations population votes NDP, and like in many other areas, the (white) rural areas vote Conservative. It may be demographic without being racial, if you follow my drift.

Seems to me the only way aboriginals ever vote Conservative is if one of their own is the local candidate - see Peter Penashue.

I think that is more the case in the Northern regions.  In the Northern areas people seem to vote more for candidate than for any particular political party.  After NWT and Nunavut don't have political parties in their provincial legislatures.  In Southern Canada, I think the Aboriginals go pretty heavily either NDP or Liberal.  The Metis I am not sure about as I know historically the Liberals did well amongst them but not sure if that is still the case.  I know the Tories have a number of Metis MPs so perhaps that has changed.

[Smid]

My wife is from Calgary and my understanding is that your take on the Northeast is correct. I saw a Census snapshot of the provincial riding there last week and I think it had about a third born in South Asia. I'll post a link if I can find it again.

[Hash]

All Albertans I know are Liberals (or perhaps NDP), which is quite amusing.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, most people who escape Alberta are non Conservatives. If someone tells me they're from Alberta, I know I can safely say "how unfortunate". My girlfriend was born in Edmonton, and she is further to the left than I am.

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh, there's a metis settlement in Alberta that went NDP.

[mileslunn]

Yeah, most people who escape Alberta are non Conservatives. If someone tells me they're from Alberta, I know I can safely say "how unfortunate". My girlfriend was born in Edmonton, and she is further to the left than I am.

Edmonton has always been somewhat more left leaning than the rest of the province.  Both the NDP and Liberals have won seats several times provincially and federally.  In fact provincially, both parties have won the majority of seats in Edmonton a few times.  I also know many people in Edmonton who are on the left too.  Calgary however is a totally different story and the same with Rural Alberta.  While there are some on the left in those two places, they tend to keep a low profile.  I heard a story about one couple my parents knew from Calgary who were afraid to talk about the fact they were Liberal due to the negative reactions they would get from everyone. 

Anyways as a side note, using the provincial boundaries, anyone know how many ridings would have been won by the NDP or Liberals?  I am guessing there would be 3 or 4 in Edmonton and maybe one in Calgary and perhaps even one of the two Lethbridge ridings.