2011 Canadian election maps

[Vasall des Midas]

506, you are awesome!

Miles - it may not necessarily be racially driven, just that like many other areas, the First Nations population votes NDP, and like in many other areas, the (white) rural areas vote Conservative. It may be demographic without being racial, if you follow my drift.

From some stuff I've had said to me from conservative or just apolitical people in Alberta ... no. Definitely not.

[Vasall des Midas]

Two of the four precincts on the Siksika (aka Blackfoot proper) reservation are reported with the exact same result, or is that an error?
I hope it is. On these figures the CPC won the rez (summed) by one vote.

[Hatman]

Yeah, most people who escape Alberta are non Conservatives. If someone tells me they're from Alberta, I know I can safely say "how unfortunate". My girlfriend was born in Edmonton, and she is further to the left than I am.

Edmonton has always been somewhat more left leaning than the rest of the province.  Both the NDP and Liberals have won seats several times provincially and federally.  In fact provincially, both parties have won the majority of seats in Edmonton a few times.  I also know many people in Edmonton who are on the left too.  Calgary however is a totally different story and the same with Rural Alberta.  While there are some on the left in those two places, they tend to keep a low profile.  I heard a story about one couple my parents knew from Calgary who were afraid to talk about the fact they were Liberal due to the negative reactions they would get from everyone. 

Anyways as a side note, using the provincial boundaries, anyone know how many ridings would have been won by the NDP or Liberals?  I am guessing there would be 3 or 4 in Edmonton and maybe one in Calgary and perhaps even one of the two Lethbridge ridings.

Edmonton Centre would have been close, but the Tories probably would have won from vote splitting.
Edmonton-Goldbar would have gone NDP
Sherwood Park would have been close Indy vs Cons race.
Edmonton-Strathcona would have of course voted NDP
Edmonton-Mill Creek looks like it also voted NDP (could be wrong)

In Calgary, the Liberals would have won Calgary-McCall but would have been competitive in Calgary-Cross.

In Lethbridge West, the NDP would have been competitive but would have lost.

[mileslunn]

I believe Edmonton-Mill Creek was one of only three seats in Edmonton that went PC in the 2004 election.  Mind you Gene Zwodesky was first elected as a Liberal in 1997 and then defected to the PCs, so it could be his personal popularity.  I believe Edmonton-Gold Bar use to be one of the safest Liberal seats in Alberta provincially.   Also didn't the NDP win Edmonton-Highlands as it looks like the Western part of Edmonton East went NDP.  Interestingly enough in Calgary, it looks like the Tories won almost every poll in Calgary-Buffalo, Calgary-Currie, and Calgary-Mountainview.  Although I think in the last provincial election, there was the traditional Edmonton-Calgary rivalry.  Ralph Klein being from Calgary probably helped him there but hurt him in Edmonton, whereas Ed Stelmach being from just outside Edmonton probably helped regain some of the lost seats, while hurt him in Calgary.  Federally you don't get the Edmonton-Calgary rivalry like you do provincially or in hockey.

[Hatman]

If the Wild Rose Party does well next election, all that will be thrown out the window.

[the506]

Two of the four precincts on the Siksika (aka Blackfoot proper) reservation are reported with the exact same result, or is that an error?
I hope it is. On these figures the CPC won the rez (summed) by one vote.

One of those polls would have been merged into the other. I just assigned the same results to both polls in those cases.

[Vasall des Midas]

So those votes were only cast once? Ie, the NDP won Siksika?
Well, that's a relief. -_-

[mileslunn]

If the Wild Rose Party does well next election, all that will be thrown out the window.

True enough, although I think the Wildrose Alliance is strongest in Rural Alberta.  In Calgary and Edmonton they are at this point only strong enough to split the vote which in the case of Calgary would benefit the Liberals as the NDP is practically non-existent there while in Edmonton it could benefit either party.  Also a lot will depend on who the new leader is.  If the new PC leader is more right wing than Ed Stelmach, I suspect a lot of those flirting with the Wildrose Alliance will come back to the PCs.

[the506]

Toute fini. BC and the north are done.

http://www.the506.com/elxnmaps/can2011/

[Hatman]

Excellent stuff! I'll add a link from my site.

[mileslunn]

It looks like Vancouver East and Langley were the only ridings any party swept.  In the case of South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale, I believe the NDP poll near the border is the Semiahoo reserve which I believe straddles the border.  It looks like my parents' poll in Vancouver Centre and their other home on Bowen Island went Tory despite the fact the Liberals won Bowen Island and also won Vancouver Centre.  In the case of Whistler interesting that the Liberal polls were mostly south of the three lakes (Alta, and the Twin Lakes can't remember the names of each) as I recall these mostly being expensive properties owned by city residents usually over 40.  The areas the Conservatives won north of Highway 99 were more where your younger residents lived although the NDP did win Whistler Village.  Another interesting part is the Liberals didn't win a single poll in Vancouver-Kingsway and Richmond despite the fact they won these ridings in 2006.  It seems the Liberal vote imploded and went much the way people voted provincially.  Otherwise those who voted Liberal federally and provincially (the BC Liberals are more conservative than Liberal) swung over to the Conservatives, while those who voted NDP provincially and Liberal federally, swung over to the NDP.  Also in Vancouver-Quadra, the polls seem to correspond closely with the provincial boundaries otherwise the Liberals won Vancouver-Point Grey and Tories Vancouver-Quilchena.  Vancouver-Point Grey was never a strong BC Liberal riding and probably went BC Liberal more because the MP, Gordon Campbell and now Christy Clark happened to be premier, whereas Vancouver-Quilchena along with West Vancouver-Capilano are the two safest BC Liberal ridings in the province thus not surprising the Conservatives would win Vancouver-Quilchena, although not by the massive margins the BC Liberals did.

[Hatman]

The poll I live in when I was living in Whistler voted Tory. Not surprising as it's new developments.  I wonder if they built over the camp they had us on yet?

I don't know much about the demographics of Whistler, as I assumed everyone there I encountered did not live there.

[mileslunn]

The poll I live in when I was living in Whistler voted Tory. Not surprising as it's new developments.  I wonder if they built over the camp they had us on yet?

I don't know much about the demographics of Whistler, as I assumed everyone there I encountered did not live there.

There is the problem as the majority of home owners or renters are seasonal who only come on the weekend, not permanant residents.  Never mind a significant portion of the staff on the mountains are Aussies who only live their seasonally and are not eligible to vote.  I haven't checked the stats, but best to check Stats Canada as I believe they only count those who are permanant residents and also they will give the breakdown between citizens and non-citizens although not amongst each group.  I should note although not too familiar, cottage country in Ontario probably has a huge influx of seasonal residents although I don't believe they can vote in those ridings, I think they have to vote in their home one, but it may give those who live there a false impression of the demographics nonetheless.

[Senator MaxQue]

I should note although not too familiar, cottage country in Ontario probably has a huge influx of seasonal residents although I don't believe they can vote in those ridings, I think they have to vote in their home one, but it may give those who live there a false impression of the demographics nonetheless.

When I was in the university residences, Elections Canada offrred me to vote at home or at university. I suppose it is the same for cottages, no?

With a proof of residence, you can do much.

[mileslunn]

I should note although not too familiar, cottage country in Ontario probably has a huge influx of seasonal residents although I don't believe they can vote in those ridings, I think they have to vote in their home one, but it may give those who live there a false impression of the demographics nonetheless.

When I was in the university residences, Elections Canada offrred me to vote at home or at university. I suppose it is the same for cottages, no?

With a proof of residence, you can do much.

That is only for University students.  I was told the same, however for seasonal residents, you cannot vote there.  My parents have a seasonal place and they have to vote in their main place of residence.  University is a bit different since most spend the semesters in session in the riding of the university or nearby while the the semesters they don't take courses at home thus it is tough call whereas for seasonal residents, there is clearly a primarily one.

[mileslunn]

I should add that for municipal elections at least in BC, you can vote in your seasonal place, in fact any municipality you own property in you can vote irrespective of how much time you spend there.  However for provincial and federal, this is not allowed.  Part of it, is for federal and provincial, you pay income taxes, whereas municipally you pay property taxes so there is a certain logic of allowing one to vote where they have a seasonal residence as opposed to provincially and federally.

[Senator MaxQue]

I should add that for municipal elections at least in BC, you can vote in your seasonal place, in fact any municipality you own property in you can vote irrespective of how much time you spend there.  However for provincial and federal, this is not allowed.  Part of it, is for federal and provincial, you pay income taxes, whereas municipally you pay property taxes so there is a certain logic of allowing one to vote where they have a seasonal residence as opposed to provincially and federally.

Also, there is a risk of voting two times for provincial and federal elections. There is no problem with double voting in municipal elections. If you live in two different towns, you have a right to be represented in both towns.

In Quebec if I remember well, you have to live in the city since at least 6 months or be the owner of a building since at least 12 months (including businesses). If a building has multiple owners and than they all live outsite the city, if they decide to vote, they must choose which one of themselves will vote.

So, for a seasonal place, only the owner of the building can vote.

[mileslunn]

Anybody have any maps by municipality or county they want me to start working On?

[Senator MaxQue]

Anybody have any maps by municipality or county they want me to start working On?

You did New Brunswick by county? I don't remember if you did.

[mileslunn]

Anybody have any maps by municipality or county they want me to start working On?

You did New Brunswick by county? I don't remember if you did.

  Yes I did.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Anybody have any maps by municipality or county they want me to start working On?

PEI by municipality/lot would be interesting. I have a some such outline maps in my old PEI games threads if you need one.

[mileslunn]

Anybody have any maps by municipality or county they want me to start working On?

PEI by municipality/lot would be interesting. I have a some such outline maps in my old PEI games threads if you need one.

Any site where I could connect the lots to poll#s or municipalities?

[Smid]

Miles, Elections PEI has a PDF which compares provincial and federal poll numbers. Perhaps it also has a similar comparison table?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Greater Vancouver might be interesting.

[Smid]

Numbers for the Northern Ontario Provincial Ridings would be nice, too...