2011 Canadian election maps

[mileslunn]

Since the poll by poll results should be out any day, I have started a new topic to post the maps.  For all the poll maps, municipality by municipaltiy, and county by county, post here.  Should be interesting to see the results especially in Quebec to see just where the changes were as that was the province with the most dramatic changes of all.

[mileslunn]

We will still need the updated polling maps.

The 2008 maps won't necessary work with the 2011 results.

When a riding sees an increase in voters, a new poll is created from an existing poll. (i.e. 54 splits into 54 and 54-1).

 If a poll becomes too large on Election Day, an ‘alpha’ spilt occurs.  (i.e. 54A, 54B, 54C.  Voters who’s last ends in A-H vote in 54A, I-Q in 54B, and R-Z in 54C.).

If a riding sees a lot of splits, then the riding is most likely going to be renumbered in the following election. The polling maps become obsolete.

If you want to compare a riding.

Compare the Poll Numbers from the 2008 and 2011.

Find the Highest Regular Poll Number (polling number up to 399) from the 2008 election to 2011
election.

If they are the same then you should be able to use the map for that riding.

If not, the riding has re-numbered its polls. The occurs in ridings that has seen a sharp increase in voters (i.e. the 905 region outside Toronto)

Polls are number the following ways:
1 – 399      Regular Poll
400 Series   Mostly apartment blocks, and other single polling locations.
500 Series   Mobile Polls, Personal Care Homes, Hospitals, etc.
600 Series    Advance Polls


I hope this helps

  I was more thinking in terms of towns and geographical areas for rural ridings while neighbourhoods for urban ones.  Even if the poll numbers don't match, you can still visually get an idea of where each party has its support.

[mileslunn]

We will still need the updated polling maps.

The 2008 maps won't necessary work with the 2011 results.

When a riding sees an increase in voters, a new poll is created from an existing poll. (i.e. 54 splits into 54 and 54-1).

 If a poll becomes too large on Election Day, an ‘alpha’ spilt occurs.  (i.e. 54A, 54B, 54C.  Voters who’s last ends in A-H vote in 54A, I-Q in 54B, and R-Z in 54C.).

If a riding sees a lot of splits, then the riding is most likely going to be renumbered in the following election. The polling maps become obsolete.

If you want to compare a riding.

Compare the Poll Numbers from the 2008 and 2011.

Find the Highest Regular Poll Number (polling number up to 399) from the 2008 election to 2011
election.

If they are the same then you should be able to use the map for that riding.

If not, the riding has re-numbered its polls. The occurs in ridings that has seen a sharp increase in voters (i.e. the 905 region outside Toronto)

Polls are number the following ways:
1 – 399      Regular Poll
400 Series   Mostly apartment blocks, and other single polling locations.
500 Series   Mobile Polls, Personal Care Homes, Hospitals, etc.
600 Series    Advance Polls


I hope this helps

  I was more thinking in terms of towns and geographical areas for rural ridings while neighbourhoods for urban ones.  Even if the poll numbers don't match, you can still visually get an idea of where each party has its support.

Well, usually, the poll by poll results names the town in which the poll is.
So, in those cases, a town map is possible.
Which is a bit useless, rural areas aren't experiencing growth, in general, so, no new precincts.
And for neighbourhoods, no. Sometimes, while they renumber, they move the numbers all around the riding, if I remember well.

  Even if numbers change dramatically, you can still compare maps visually.  Also hopefully we can do maps for entire cities like the GVRD, Toronto, Island of Montreal, Quebec City, Winnipeg, and Edmonton.  It would be interesting to see where each party's strength is in each city.

[mileslunn]

I think there are maps with the update poll by poll.  I realize you cannot compare poll by poll with last time, but you can still produce a visual image and compare those.  We already have those from 2008 in another thread, so this will be for 2011.

[mileslunn]

Geogratis is fine, whichever one works.  I will work on the municipalities and counties first and then I will do the poll by poll later, probably in the fall and winter when I have hours to spend indoors and when it was freezing cold outside, not when its nice out.

[mileslunn]

I haven't seen them on Elections Canada yet.  Anybody have any poll by poll results for any ridings.  I was hoping on getting a few maps up in the next week before I go off on my three week vacation to Europe.

[mileslunn]

Greetings from Nuremburg, Germany.  I haven't responded on anything as I have been out of the country since July 1st.  Most nights I am out enjoying the nice weather but the weather has been quite crappy here otherwise rain and only 15C, not the extreme heat you guys are having.  Anyways I will start working on the maps when I get home this weekend.  Probably on Sunday as I will be too jet lagged on Saturday.  Below are my comments on the map so far.  Please keep your replys to this.  If you want more information of my European trip send me a private message.

1.  Etobicoke-Lakeshore:  Surprised how few polls Ignatieff won.  Looks like the Liberal vote was pretty evenly distributed while it appears in the wealthier areas, the Tories got close to 50% and NDP in the single digits while in the more working class areas it was a three way split. 

2.  Nipissing-Timiskaming.  It appears it was North Bay that kept this riding close whereas the rest of the riding sort of resembled the North/South divide.  The Southern parts went Tory much like the neighbouring ridings and the Northern parts the NDP did better like elsewhere in Northern Ontario.  As for the NDP weakness in North Bay, it is sort of borderline Northern Ontario and usually the Tories tend to do better in these areas and NDP weaker. 

3.  Toronto:  I remember seeing a map in the Toronto Star not too long ago showing the wealthy neighbourhoods mostly near Yonge Street and the poorer largely immigrant ones in the Northwest and Northeast.  It appears much of the Tory strength was not in the heavily ethnic ridings, but rather the affluent ones.  I wonder if their policy on tax cuts vs. that of other parties played a role here.  The NDP has a long stretch of support but still weak in Etobicoke and North York.  While Scarborough asides from Scarborough-Rouge River and the very eastern parts seems like a mish mash of everything mind you most ridings were three way splits.  The Liberals narrowly won Etobicoke yet looking at the map it appears the Tories won far more polls in Etobicoke than the Liberals.  I am guessing in a lot of the wealthy areas, both parties got over 40% thus many were narrow Tory wins despite the darkness of blue, while the Liberals won by bigger margins in the Northern parts.  In Scarborough-Rouge River Jack Layton did in fact visit the riding although near the very end.  Also the NDP won amongst immigrants who had been in Canada less than 10 years while the Tories amongst those who had been in Canada for much longer periods and most in this riding are pretty recent arrivals.  It is not mostly Tamil, in fact it has a large Chinese and Black population.  The one thing about the riding as I believe whites are only 11% which is the lowest of any riding in Canada, so kind of a gage of how well parties do amongst visible minorities.  Up until recently, Scarborough was one of the Liberals strongest areas, even under Dion they got over 50% in Scarborough.  Ironically it was the NDP who rose the most, not the Tories who only went up slightly but won Scarborough Centre due vote splits while Pickering-Scarborough East is more 905 than 416 thus the Tory strength here.

Bramalea-Gore-Malton: It appears many of the Liberal areas swung over to the NDP while the Tories held their previous areas, otherwise the more white areas.  For all the talk of the Tories making a breakthrough amongst ethnic voters, it appears the NDP did too.  Mind you a lot of the heavily immigrant ridings they won we haven't posted the polls for yet.  I will be interested to see Brampton as a whole, Mississauga, and Markham, that will be a better indicator.

Ottawa-Orleans:  Are the Eastern and Southern parts more anglophone than other parts of the riding as historically the Francophone community use to vote heavily Liberal, or is this just because those areas are more suburban/rural and also further from the city centre thus fewer civil servants?

I may respond later if I find an internet cafe in the other cities I stop in.

Auf Wedershen

[mileslunn]

When I get home from Europe, I will do all the municipality by municipality as well as county divisions.  I could take a while but I will get working on it and post them as they are ready.  Using the spreadsheets can be quite useful.  Also I can help on the poll by poll maps if anyone can show me how to do them. 

[mileslunn]

Also wonder why the Liberals did so well amongst university students?  Guelph and Kingston both went Liberal, the few Liberal polls in London were near UWO and it looks like in Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale the only Liberal polls were around McMaster.  I would have thought that students are more likely to go NDP than Liberal especially considering the NDP had a better chance of defeating the Tories than the Liberals.  Any ideas on why this happened?  Did the Liberal education passport have any impact?

[mileslunn]

How about some urban/rural ridings...

Peterborough
Chatham-Kent-Essex
Prince Edward-Hastings (i believe thats belleville)
Brant

Oh and Kingston... curious about that one

He has some of Brant here: https://7686778538406164426-a-1802744773732722657-s-sites.googlegroups.com/site/krago123/maps/HamiltonBB_Fed2011PD_Map.pdf?attachauth=ANoY7cokxYc3KN757rcPEYbu3WTd1hCKQj9TPjoLWTFXrp1G6h182T4-89-Qz95kWIIHY1SyL-X0-BkGFnH09ntUkYXmWMEDK_F30XgLkOhvk6tqeV4uBqK0DyoAOJCZeLg_d08HYRb399C-EszBydRWzKWMgJnANcoAvQ7gziO-4O5bhcmeJ0kMI2X7BNg3Dc8EXCKa-KDJTZ06Eq9hFxMjj8pGMiE5ig%3D%3D&attredirects=0

  I find these maps not very clear, so we should still work on our separate ones especially in the mixed urban-rural ridings where you can barely see the urban parts

[mileslunn]

Fredericton poll-by-poll results Google-Maps-ified:

http://www.the506.com/elxnmaps/can2011/freddy-test.html

1 down, 307 to go.

What about the rest of the riding?  Or did the Tories win every poll outside Fredericton?

[mileslunn]

I am currently working on getting the data ready and will start making the maps after.  I have currently done all the ridings up to letter G and hope to have them done over the next few weeks.  Then I will start publishing some of the maps for municipalities and counties.  I will also for the fun of it do a red state vs. blue state style one with red for counties and municipalities where the Cons + CHP + independent Conservative candidates (James Ford, Helena Guergis, and Andre Arthur) exceeded 50% and blue for everything else.

[mileslunn]

Don't forget the Libertarians.

or the PCP and UP for that matter

Although Libertarians are on the right, the US also has them, so I will just factor them out although I don't think they got enough votes to really impact any area.  As for PC Party and United Party, they are more centrist than right wing.  The PC Party is really the Red Tory wing from the old Progressive Conservatives who would be on the same spot if not slightly to the left of the federal Liberals and in the US definitely more in line with the Democrats than Republicans.  Although, it is quite possible than many who voted PC Party did so by mistake and actually intended to vote Conservatives.  I guess I can add those three although I doubt it will change much considering how few votes they got.

[mileslunn]

I am now finished the Os so still have the Ps to Zs.  I can confirm the NDP won the old city of Ottawa pre-amalgmation although much like the 416 and Vancouver proper it was a tight three way race.  The Tories off course took Ottawa as a whole when you include the amalgamated areas.  Hamilton though still went NDP even after amalgmation although a lot closer whereas in the old city they won by 20 points while the Tories won by 25 points in the amalgmated parts of Hamilton.  In some ways it is like many counties in the US where the city proper goes Democrat but the suburban sections go Republican or at least are more evenly split rather than heavily tilted towards the Democrats.  Alleghney County, Wayne County, Cuyahoga County, Cook County, Milwaukee County, Hennepin County, Los Angeles County, San Diego County, and King County all follow this to some degree although Obama did win the suburban sections in many of those, but they were a lot closer and many of those will go Republican win they win nationally.

[mileslunn]

Great job on the maps.  One quick question.  Did any party win every poll in any riding and which ones.  I know the Tories won every poll last time around in Durham and Carleton-Mississippi Mills, but it looks like not in those ridings this time around, but that they swept other ones.  This is for Ontario only.

[mileslunn]

Still working on the maps, but a few interesting things I have found in some ridings.  In Richmond-Arthabaska, the Tories won Asbestos so I wonder if their controversial position of supporting exports of asbestos and not ratifying the Rotterdam Convention helped in this town, although I believe the Conservative candidate who is the brother of former MP Andre Bachand also came from this town.  In Saint-Maurice-Champlain, the NDP won Herouxville, despite the fact their immigration and multicultural policies are about as far away as you can get from the town's position.  This was the infamous town for its policies on immigrants despite having none.  Also had election day polls only been used and there had been no advanced polls, the NDP would have won Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar meaning PEI would be the only province they would have been shut out of.

[mileslunn]

In some ways Quebec strikes me as more European than North American in many of their attitudes.  It is true on immigration and multiculturalism they are certainly more conservative than English Canada in terms of more Quebecers favour assimilation than elsewhere and they are more likely to favour lower levels of immigration.  There are also other issues where they are more to the right depending on how you look at it.  Quebecers are more likely to support free trade and tend to be more supportive of laxer foreign ownership rules (asides from culture) than English Canadians.  Mind you do the language and cultural differences, they are probably less worried about Americanization than English Canadians where the differences are much smaller.  On health care, Quebecers don't seem to object to a parallel private system as strongly as English Canadians.  After all, there are many private clinics where one can pay for faster service in Quebec, some in BC and even fewer in Alberta, while practically none in Ontario.  In most European countries you have a parallel private health system.  Although this is less of right vs. left, they tend to have far laxer alcohol laws.  In Quebec you can buy beer and wine in grocery stores unlike most provinces in English Canada.  Some may say this is more left leaning, but I should note the NDP in most English Canadian provinces tend to be the strongest opponents of allowing alcohol sales in grocery stores, gas stations, and convenience stores, although I suspect much of that has to do with the fact they don't want to undermine the unions at the government run liquor stores.  The point is the differences between Quebec and English Canada are not totaly a simple left vs. right, although on some issues such as the environment, attitude towards public sector unions, military intervention overseas, abortion and same sex marriage, Quebecers are definitely more left leaning.

[mileslunn]

the NDP is against relaxing liquour rules? This is quite disappointing, but also the first I heard of it.

  Unfortunately yes.  At least you can go across the river and pick up a six pack or a bottle of wine at any depanneur or even Costco has go prices and selection.  Unfortunately here in Toronto we are stuck with the Beer Store and LCBO. 

[mileslunn]

Scarborough went Liberal while the NDP won East York, although both were three way races.  So far of the municipalities I have done, Guelph, Kingston, Casselman, and North Bay are the only Liberal wins.  Of the former municipalities of Ottawa, the NDP won Ottawa and Vanier, Liberals Rockcliffe Park, while the Tories won every other one, although they only got over 50% (actually 60% in all these too) in Goulbourn, Osgoode, Rideau, and West Carleton i.e. the largely rural municipalities.  In the former municipality of Hamilton, the NDP won Hamilton, while the Tories got a plurality in Stoney Creek and Dundas and a majority in Ancaster, Glanbrook, and Flamborough.  Actually so far, the Tories have gotten above 40% in almost every municipality outside of Toronto, with only Casselman, Kingston (Frontenac Islands if you don't round up), and Hamilton.  I haven't yet gotten to Windsor which I am sure the NDP won by a fairly sizeable margin. 

[mileslunn]

Okay here is New Brunswick by county.  I made three maps here.  The first is strictly by winner.  Restigouche County and Westmoreland County were three way races which the Tories won but only in the low 30s



This is by percentage.  The Liberals were in the 30s in Kent County, NDP in 60s in Gloucester County, Tories in 30s in Restigouche County and Westmoreland County, 40s in York County, Madawaska County and Saint John County (all above 47% I should add), 68% in Carleton County, while in the 50s in all other counties



Here is New Brunswick US style with the red counties being Tories over 50% and the blue being Tories under 50%

[mileslunn]

The Liberals did win Deep River as well.  One of the few municipalities they won.  In fact the Tories got over 50% in the vast majority of municipalities despite averaging 44% province wide.  This time around they also did crack the 70% mark in a few, but not many, but none over 75% so far.  As for the NDP, I think they got over 60% in some in Northern Ontario, but none in Southern Ontario.

[mileslunn]

The NDP would have won Westmount-Ville Marie if you took only election day polls, which might explain why Marc Garneau conceded defeat on election night only to retract it later as usually the advanced polls are the last to come in.  Also it was Westmount that saved him as the NDP came in third in Westmount behind the Tories.  I should note on the Island of Montreal, the Liberals came in third in the old city of Montreal prior to amalgamation but second when you include the amalgamated cities.  The NDP off course won both Montreal pre and post amalgamation.  Also in Southern Ontario, the NDP won Thorold, Welland, and Port Colborne (although the Tories took the St. Catharines portion of Welland in addition to Wainfleet).  It seems in those three cities the NDP won most of the polls in the built up areas while the Tories in the rural sections.  Is it due to the heavy unionization why those three cities are more NDP than the rest of the Niagara region.  And how come St. Catharines goes Tory or Liberal in the past, but never NDP? 

[mileslunn]

I wonder if the NDP might have won over a few towns in Essex given how much their vote increased in that riding?

Haven't got to Tecumseh and Windsor yet, but in terms of the ridings in Essex, no the Tories won every single municipality.  While in Kingsville they got over 50%, all the others were between 45-50%.  In fact the NDP and Tory support was fairly evenly distributed in Essex.  It is however likely the NDP won some of the "towns" but not any of the municipalities when you consider each municipality is a mixture of towns and countryside and the Tories tend to win pretty big in the countryside and towns under 500.

[mileslunn]

The Liberals won the municipality of Whistler in British Columbia but with only 27%.  It was a four way split, Lib 27%, NDP 26%, Con 26%, and GRN 17%.  I know in the US most ski resorts vote Democrat even if in solidly Republican states such as Jackson in Wyoming or Sun Valley in Idaho.  At the same time most residents are quite wealthy and liberal thus the dilemma which is why I think you got the four way split you did.  They like the NDP's progressive social policies, but don't like the idea of higher taxes for the rich, while they may like the Conservative tax cuts, but find many of their social policies quite regressive. 

[mileslunn]

I will do a map later, but for Nova Scotia, the Liberals won all four Cape Breton Island counties, but asides from that, they only won Hants County, while the NDP only won Halifax County.  The Tories took all the remaining counties on Mainland Nova Scotia, although they only cracked the 50% mark in Pictou County and Cumberland County (albeit if you round off they also got over 50% in Yarmouth County).  Each party seems to have its turf, otherwise Liberals in Cape Breton Island, Tories in Rural Mainland Nova Scotia, and NDP in the Metro Halifax area.