Guessing someone’s voting.

[Shira]

If If you randomly pick out a 2004 voter and then ask “what is the probability that this individual voted for Bush?” The answer would be simple and clear: 0.51, since Bush got close to 51% of the popular vote. That’s the case when the voter is absolutely random. If, however, you know one item of information about this voter, then the probability would change. If, for example you know that that the person is from Texas, then the probability goes up to 0.61. If the only information you have is, that the person is black, then the probability goes down to 0.11. Etc…. We don’t have problems with these numbers since these are the official ones. But there are several other categories which could indicate how someone voted but these are not official numbers, and every one can assign his/her subjective probabilities.
Here are some categories.
What is the voting-for-Bush probability you would assign to a voter if you know
   1 - that this person  earns $150,000 per year ?
   2 - that this person  earns $50,000 per year ?
   3 - that this person  is older than 70?
   4 - that this person  is younger than 25?

   that this person :
   5 -Lives in a town of 7,000 residents
   6 - Lives in a city of 700,000 residents
   7 - Has never been out of the US.
   8 - While driving to work listens to NPR?
   9 - Goes to church at least once a week.
   10 - Does not go to church.
   11- The color of the person’s eyes is light blue.
   12 -The color of the person’s eyes is brown..
   13 -The person’s last name is Kaminski.
   14 -The person is a truck driver.
   15 -The person is a high school teacher.
   16 -The person is a lowyer.
   17 -The person is a physician.
    18 - The person has invested $600,000 in the stock exchange.
    19 - The person listens to Rush Limbaugh during launch hour.
    20 -The person watches CNN one hour per day.

The following are my subjective probabilities to the above:

1 - 0.4
2 - 0.55
3 - 0.4
4 - 0.3
5 - 0.75
 
6 - 0.4
7 - 0.8
8 - 0.4
9 - 0.8
10 - 0.35

11 - 0.6
12 - 0.3
13 - 0.3
14 - 0.7
15 - 0.2

16 - 0.4
17 - 0.5
18 - 0.7
19 - 0.9
20 - 0.4

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Where is this from? The eye color thing is VERY interesting.

[Shira]

Where is this from? The eye color thing is VERY interesting.

Again:
These are my subjective estimates.

[opebo]

   16 -The person is a lower.

What is a 'lower'?

Btw, I think you're right on most of those.   My favorite is the 'never left the US' one.

[patrick1]

They never left the U.S. (80% for Bush) one is clearly wrong and is an attempt to paint the average Repubican as parochial.  The most frequent world travelers are business travelers- A group that would favor Bush.  Furthermore, the urban black and poor don't make it to the other side of the Atlantic very often either.  The eye color thing is not verifiable but you must remember that there are lot of Irish, German, English Italian etc etc that have brown eyes.   
High School teacher is also way off.  Maybe 60-40.  There is no way Kerry would get 80% likelihood.

[Will F.D. People]

Here are some of mine:

Has a kid who plays baseball:   .80
Has a kid who plays soccer:  .40

Has a bumper sticker on their car for their choice in President: .35

Has a yard sign for their choice in President: .20

Is between 10 and 30 pounds overweight: .60
Is more than 30 pounds overweight: .30

Owns a motorcycle: .75
Owns a gas-guzzling SUV:  .45
Owns a Land Rover: .20
Owns a hybrid-electric car: 0.60
Does not own a car: 0.35

Prefers pro football to college football: 0.75
Can name a team in the English Premier League other than Manchester United: 0.3

[patrick1]

60% hybrid car for Bush??  The South and Plains also generally prefers College Football- Nebraska, Oklahoma, Alabama, Ole Miss, etc

[So the Heroes Fall]

there is no way 75% of people who live in towns of 7000 residents voted for Bush. Probably closer to 58% or so.

[A18]

Here's the income data.

Under $15,000 (8%)
Bush  36%
Kerry  63%   

$15-30,000 (15%)
Bush  42%
Kerry  57%

$30-50,000 (22%)
Bush  49%
Kerry  50%

$50-75,000 (23%)
Bush  56%
Kerry  43%   

$75-100,000 (14%)
Bush  55%
Kerry  45%   

$100-150,000 (11%)
Bush  57%
Kerry  42%

$150-200,000 (4%)
Bush  58%
Kerry  42%

$200,000 or More (3%)
Bush  63%
Kerry  35%

[So the Heroes Fall]

I wonder what the odds on me are:

Male
White
Heterosexual
Protestant
age 20
makes $10k a year
Lives in a city of 45k

[patrick1]

there is no way 75% of people who live in towns of 7000 residents voted for Bush. Probably closer to 58% or so.

True^^^.  80% Kerry for cities of 700,000 is too high also.  L.A., Houston, Phoenix , San Diego, San Antonio, Dallas, Indianapolis etc, etc would all bring this down margin down significantly.  Kerry's results in New York City wasn't even 80%- Result was 75% to 24%.  For people living in a city with over 700,000 people I would guess somewhere in the 60's. 

[Shira]

I wonder what the odds on me are:

Male
White
Heterosexual
Protestant
age 20
makes $10k a year
Lives in a city of 45k

You are around the 0.5

[Sibboleth]

there is no way 75% of people who live in towns of 7000 residents voted for Bush. Probably closer to 58% or so.

True^^^.  80% Kerry for cities of 700,000 is too high also.  L.A., Houston, Phoenix , San Diego, San Antonio, Dallas, Indianapolis etc, etc would all bring this down margin down significantly.  Kerry's results in New York City wasn't even 80%- Result was 75% to 24%.  For people living in a city with over 700,000 people I would guess somewhere in the 60's. 

Kerry actually did better with small town voters than Gore did (albeit by a small amount).
There's a lot of (understandable) discontent in small towns (and has been for ages) and it's an open goal that Kerry missed.
If he'd done what I'd have done and based his campaign around small town discontent he'd have won Ohio for sure.
He didn't. He didn't win Ohio.

[AuH2O]

Income is probably the single most useful indicator, so someone like BRTD isn't all that unusual. However, with someone age 20 you sometimes look at their income, sometimes family income (my income might by 5K, but my parents are in the top tax bracket).

[MODU]

Remember the "fuzzy math" tag that went around in 2000?  I think it fits on Shira's statistics pretty well.  HAHAHA

[Shira]

They never left the U.S. (80% for Bush) one is clearly wrong and is an attempt to paint the average Repubican as parochial.  The most frequent world travelers are business travelers- A group that would favor Bush.  Furthermore, the urban black and poor don't make it to the other side of the Atlantic very often either.  The eye color thing is not verifiable but you must remember that there are lot of Irish, German, English Italian etc etc that have brown eyes.   
High School teacher is also way off.  Maybe 60-40.  There is no way Kerry would get 80% likelihood.

Say someone asks you what is the probability that voter X voted for Bush. You have never seen this person you don't know where he/she lives. In other words you don't have any information about him/her. In this case your answer must be 0.51.

Now, assume you get some limited information: the person has never left the US. Will you, in this case continue with the 0.51 or will you change it?

[KEmperor]

I imagine I would brake the mold for this.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Income is probably the single most useful indicator, so someone like BRTD isn't all that unusual. However, with someone age 20 you sometimes look at their income, sometimes family income (my income might by 5K, but my parents are in the top tax bracket).

well my parents are in the $50-75k bracket that voted 56% for Bush, although I know for sure my mom voted for Kerry, don't know about my dad.

Not an issue for me though, once I get out of college and get my CIS degree I could probably land a job making $60-70k a year, that wouldn't change my voting though.

Of course my Protestant denomination probably voted for Kerry, even if only marginally (at least in my state), my ethnicity probably voted for Kerry (if you go beyond "white", Scandinavians in the upper Midwest tend to be Democrats) and my city voted 54% for Kerry.

[patrick1]

They never left the U.S. (80% for Bush) one is clearly wrong and is an attempt to paint the average Repubican as parochial.  The most frequent world travelers are business travelers- A group that would favor Bush.  Furthermore, the urban black and poor don't make it to the other side of the Atlantic very often either.  The eye color thing is not verifiable but you must remember that there are lot of Irish, German, English Italian etc etc that have brown eyes.   
High School teacher is also way off.  Maybe 60-40.  There is no way Kerry would get 80% likelihood.

Say someone asks you what is the probability that voter X voted for Bush. You have never seen this person you don't know where he/she lives. In other words you don't have any information about him/her. In this case your answer must be 0.51.

Now, assume you get some limited information: the person has never left the US. Will you, in this case continue with the 0.51 or will you change it?

Were I in a room with 10 such persons, I would not presume that 8 of them were Kerry voters.  Being a betting man, I would take Bush if the point spread was an 80% line that he would vote for Kerry.  It is just too high of an assumption.  Bush .45 seems more reasonable only because people from the N.E. and California do tend to travel aboard slightly more than some other parts. 

[Defarge]

On Election Day, I stood at an intersection with my school's Young Democrats Club waving Kerry signs.  It was remarkable how you could tell almost automatically who would beep in support and who would give you the finger or stick their tongue out at you.  I don't think I saw a single African American not beep in support.  Meanwhile, people in SUV's and pick up trucks who responded at all usually responded negatively.

[patrick1]

On Election Day, I stood at an intersection with my school's Young Democrats Club waving Kerry signs.  It was remarkable how you could tell almost automatically who would beep in support and who would give you the finger or stick their tongue out at you.  I don't think I saw a single African American not beep in support.  Meanwhile, people in SUV's and pick up trucks who responded at all usually responded negatively.

Where were you for curiosities sake?  Do you go to school in NY?

[nclib]

Does anyone want to take a stab at these...

-white male evangelical in the South
-lesbian Jew in New England
-male with long hair
-alum of Ivy League school
-has 10 siblings
-regular user of pornography
-white without high school degree
-black, income over 100K
-NASCAR fan
-black, married to a white
-white, married to a black

[So the Heroes Fall]

-white male evangelical in the South - 0.8
-lesbian Jew in New England - 0.1
-male with long hair - 0.4
-alum of Ivy League school 0.6
-has 10 siblings - 0.3
-regular user of pornography 0.2
-white without high school degree - 0.35
-black, income over 100K - 0.15
-NASCAR fan - 0.6
-black, married to a white - 0.1
-white, married to a black - 0.2

[Grad Students are the Worst]

-white male evangelical in the South - 0.8
-lesbian Jew in New England - 0.1
-male with long hair - 0.4
-alum of Ivy League school 0.6
-has 10 siblings - 0.3
-regular user of pornography 0.2
-white without high school degree - 0.35
-black, income over 100K - 0.15
-NASCAR fan - 0.6
-black, married to a white - 0.1
-white, married to a black - 0.2

0.2 seems a tad unlikely there.

[J. J.]

By using Shira's method, I should be a Kerry voter.