Guessing someone’s voting.

[A18]

By using Shira's method, I should be a Kerry voter.

How come?

[dazzleman]

I can sometimes tell people's political views just by the tone of voice that they use.  Women who have an "outraged" approach to everything are usually Democrats, as are guys who have a whiny tinge to their voice.

I also think there is a correlation among women between attractiveness and political views.  The more attractive a woman is, the greater the chance that she is a Republican.

[dazzleman]

By using Shira's method, I should be a Kerry voter.

How come?

I think J. J. is a brother.  I like people who break the mold...

[KEmperor]

By using Shira's method, I should be a Kerry voter.

Ditto.

[patrick1]

-white male evangelical in the South - 0.8
-lesbian Jew in New England - 0.1
-male with long hair - 0.4
-alum of Ivy League school 0.6
-has 10 siblings - 0.3
-regular user of pornography 0.2
-white without high school degree - 0.35
-black, income over 100K - 0.15
-NASCAR fan - 0.6
-black, married to a white - 0.1
-white, married to a black - 0.2

Republicans aren't that pure and Ivy league grads are definetly not that conservative.  NASCAR fan should probably be a bit higher for Bush too.

[dazzleman]

-white male evangelical in the South - 0.8
-lesbian Jew in New England - 0.1
-male with long hair - 0.4
-alum of Ivy League school 0.6
-has 10 siblings - 0.3
-regular user of pornography 0.2
-white without high school degree - 0.35
-black, income over 100K - 0.15
-NASCAR fan - 0.6
-black, married to a white - 0.1
-white, married to a black - 0.2

Republicans aren't that pure and Ivy league grads are definetly not that conservative.  NASCAR fan should probably be a bit higher for Bush too.

I know plenty of Republicans who look at porn....it's definitely a myth that Republicans aren't interested in sex.

[nclib]

-white male evangelical in the South - 0.8
-lesbian Jew in New England - 0.1
-male with long hair - 0.4
-alum of Ivy League school 0.6
-has 10 siblings - 0.3
-regular user of pornography 0.2
-white without high school degree - 0.35
-black, income over 100K - 0.15
-NASCAR fan - 0.6
-black, married to a white - 0.1
-white, married to a black - 0.2

Republicans aren't that pure and Ivy league grads are definetly not that conservative.  NASCAR fan should probably be a bit higher for Bush too.

I would have thought that Ivy League types would be at least 55% Kerry. The lean would be even stronger when controlled for income.

[nclib]

-has 10 siblings - 0.3

This might favor Kerry only because of the disproportionate number of racial minorities in that group.

My guess, however, would be that whites with 10+ siblings lean conservative.

[J. J.]

By using Shira's method, I should be a Kerry voter.

How come?

I think J. J. is a brother.  I like people who break the mold...

Part Amerindian, though my brown eyes come from my mother (who was completely European).  Culturally, I've been referred to as "homeboy" on several occasions.  :-)  It has to do with my address.

I do like in a ward, in a large city, Phila, that was 90% for Kerry.  I do NOT make more than $50.000.

I do love how liberals stereotype (he said through grinding teeth).

[Shira]

-white male evangelical in the South - 0.8
-lesbian Jew in New England - 0.1
-male with long hair - 0.4
-alum of Ivy League school 0.6
-has 10 siblings - 0.3
-regular user of pornography 0.2
-white without high school degree - 0.35
-black, income over 100K - 0.15
-NASCAR fan - 0.6
-black, married to a white - 0.1
-white, married to a black - 0.2

I tend to agree with you except for
-regular user of pornography - 0.2
-white without high school degree - 0.35

I would assign:
-regular user of pornography - 0.5
-white without high school degree - 0.65

[Shira]

By using Shira's method, I should be a Kerry voter.

More accurately: a likely Kerry voter.
The probability of Jews or Blacks or teachers etc. voting for Bush is low but not zero.

Nationally you belong to the 51%, but among people meeting your categoties you are a tiny minority.

[Shira]

We are having fun here, but the issue of who is a Republican and who is a Democrat is a very serious one. The nation is sharply divided.
The first indicator is the geographical contiguity of the red and blue states. The battleground states are mostly on the bordering area between the two countries. Florida is deep in the south area of the red country, but Florida itself is geographically divided into two states.
More important are the behavioral, mental and cultural differences between the “reds” and the “blues”. It is the same situation as in Canada, except for the lingual differences. Everyone who visited Quebec noticed that the difference with the rest of Canada is not only French vs. English but much deeper than that.

[dazzleman]

We are having fun here, but the issue of who is a Republican and who is a Democrat is a very serious one. The nation is sharply divided.
The first indicator is the geographical contiguity of the red and blue states. The battleground states are mostly on the bordering area between the two countries. Florida is deep in the south area of the red country, but Florida itself is geographically divided into two states.
More important are the behavioral, mental and cultural differences between the “reds” and the “blues”. It is the same situation as in Canada, except for the lingual differences. Everyone who visited Quebec noticed that the difference with the rest of Canada is not only French vs. English but much deeper than that.

I've traveled to different parts of the country, and I am a conservative living in a "blue" state.  I have to say that except for the lunatic fringe on either end, which are a relatively small percentage of people (San Francisco liberals vs. extreme bible-belt conservatives), our differences are nowhere near as great as the differences in Canada.

Our greatest divide continues to be along racial lines.

[dazzleman]

By using Shira's method, I should be a Kerry voter.

How come?

I think J. J. is a brother.  I like people who break the mold...

Part Amerindian, though my brown eyes come from my mother (who was completely European).  Culturally, I've been referred to as "homeboy" on several occasions.  :-)  It has to do with my address.

I do like in a ward, in a large city, Phila, that was 90% for Kerry.  I do NOT make more than $50.000.

I do love how liberals stereotype (he said through grinding teeth).

I think it's great when people break those stereotypes.  Keep driving those liberals, many of whom are really narrow-minded bigots, crazy.

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

I also think there is a correlation among women between attractiveness and political views.  The more attractive a woman is, the greater the chance that she is a Republican.

AHAHAHAHAHA

we have all those Hollywood actresses. You have Tranny Annie Coulter, Linda Tripp, and that woman from the Christian Coalition.

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

what would these be?

-thinks about sex a lot
-frequent binge drinker
-owns more than 200 vinyls, all modern ones (pressed after the invention of CDs)
-played GTA: San Andreas frequently on election day
-poster of Anna Kournikova hanging on apartment wall
-poster of Che Guevara hanging on apartment wall
-lives in an apartment next to a crack whore (does not apply to me)
-hates suburbs
-hates Nader
-works at a porn store (does not apply to me but almost did)
-runs an indepedent record label

[Shira]

Where is this from? The eye color thing is VERY interesting.

Who are the people with brown or dark eyes?

African-Americans,  Hispanics,  Asian-Americans, majority of Jews and the majority of people whose decadency is from Mediterranean Catholic or Greek-Orthodox counties such as  Greek, Italy, French, Spain etc. All these groups are tending to vote Democrats. Needless to mention that there are Germans or British with brown eyes, but they are in the minority as to the color-of-the-eyes category.
BTW: Kerry and Edwards, both have light-blue eyes.

[Shira]

They never left the U.S. (80% for Bush) one is clearly wrong and is an attempt to paint the average Repubican as parochial.  The most frequent world travelers are business travelers- A group that would favor Bush.  Furthermore, the urban black and poor don't make it to the other side of the Atlantic very often either.  The eye color thing is not verifiable but you must remember that there are lot of Irish, German, English Italian etc etc that have brown eyes.   
High School teacher is also way off.  Maybe 60-40.  There is no way Kerry would get 80% likelihood.

Say someone asks you what is the probability that voter X voted for Bush. You have never seen this person you don't know where he/she lives. In other words you don't have any information about him/her. In this case your answer must be 0.51.

Now, assume you get some limited information: the person has never left the US. Will you, in this case continue with the 0.51 or will you change it?

 Bush .45 seems more reasonable only because people from the N.E. and California do tend to travel aboard slightly more than some other parts. 

I said that among those who were not abroad the ratio Kerry:Bush is 20:80.
This does not mean that among those who were abroad the ratio is 80:20

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

Wonder what my odds are in voting Bush.

-Male
-Caucasian
-Age: 24
-Disaffected Roman Catholic from a practicing family
-Heterosexual
-5-10
-250 lbs.
-Family mixed in ideology
-From union/labor background, but went to 12 years of -Catholic schooling then went ot a secular/state college
-Has lived in mostly white neighborhoods with a spritz of racism (i.e. some of my neighbors were borderline neo-Nazis)
- Lives in very large, African American and Democratic controlled city (remember most whites resent this)

[Keystone Phil]

-Has lived in mostly white neighborhoods with a spritz of racism (i.e. some of my neighbors were borderline neo-Nazis)

I don't know exactly everyplace you have resided at in the city but I do think it's safe to say that your comment about some of your neighbors being neo-Nazis is an exaggeration. Now if "some" to you means one or two, well ok. You're going to have those type of wackos everywhere. However, your post leads one to belief that you mean more than just a few.

[Shira]

Wonder what my odds are in voting Bush.

-Male
-Caucasian
-Age: 24
-Disaffected Roman Catholic from a practicing family
-Heterosexual
-5-10
-250 lbs.
-Family mixed in ideology
-From union/labor background, but went to 12 years of -Catholic schooling then went ot a secular/state college
-Has lived in mostly white neighborhoods with a spritz of racism (i.e. some of my neighbors were borderline neo-Nazis)
- Lives in very large, African American and Democratic controlled city (remember most whites resent this)

Looks like you voted Kerry (probability 0.7).

[dazzleman]

Shira, this is a very interesting analysis, and probably not far from what a lot of political strategists do when trying to determine where to find potential votes.

How do you weight different characteristics when they conflict with each other?  For example, what if you have a Jewish member of the NRA?  Or an evangelical Christian who belongs to NOW?

My general characteristics are:

White
Male
High income
Live in suburbs
Own home
Work in finance industry
Heterosexual
Social Moderate to Conservative
Unmarried
Live in Northeast

Except for the last two, all these factors point toward a Republican vote.  In my local town, most people are white and middle to high income, but John Kerry had a very narrow majority in my town.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

Wonder what my odds are in voting Bush.

-Male
-Caucasian
-Age: 24
-Disaffected Roman Catholic from a practicing family
-Heterosexual
-5-10
-250 lbs.
-Family mixed in ideology
-From union/labor background, but went to 12 years of -Catholic schooling then went ot a secular/state college
-Has lived in mostly white neighborhoods with a spritz of racism (i.e. some of my neighbors were borderline neo-Nazis)
- Lives in very large, African American and Democratic controlled city (remember most whites resent this)

Looks like you voted Kerry (probability 0.7).

I would go with 0.7 Kerry as well.  BTW, I voted Kerry.  Some from the same background as me amazingly voted Bush.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

-Has lived in mostly white neighborhoods with a spritz of racism (i.e. some of my neighbors were borderline neo-Nazis)

I don't know exactly everyplace you have resided at in the city but I do think it's safe to say that your comment about some of your neighbors being neo-Nazis is an exaggeration. Now if "some" to you means one or two, well ok. You're going to have those type of wackos everywhere. However, your post leads one to belief that you mean more than just a few.

More than just one or two.  I could safely say about 3-5% in some neighborhoods.  Remember, I grew up in the Lower Northeast.  The "N-bomb" was heard far more frequently here.  I just went back to my old corner pub and man this one white woman in her 50s made comments about every African American in the place.  I swear she made Archie Bunker look like a bleeding heart liberal.  I've had neighbors who use it like a very common noun. 

[Keystone Phil]

-Has lived in mostly white neighborhoods with a spritz of racism (i.e. some of my neighbors were borderline neo-Nazis)

I don't know exactly everyplace you have resided at in the city but I do think it's safe to say that your comment about some of your neighbors being neo-Nazis is an exaggeration. Now if "some" to you means one or two, well ok. You're going to have those type of wackos everywhere. However, your post leads one to belief that you mean more than just a few.

More than just one or two.  I could safely say about 3-5% in some neighborhoods.  Remember, I grew up in the Lower Northeast.  The "N-bomb" was heard far more frequently here.  I just went back to my old corner pub and man this one white woman in her 50s made comments about every African American in the place.  I swear she made Archie Bunker look like a bleeding heart liberal.  I've had neighbors who use it like a very common noun. 

I'm not going to deny that there are people in the Northeast that are racist but calling people neo-Nazis is a bit much. By the way, I do know which areas you are referring to when you say there were more  racist feelings and I do agree that those feelings are more common in those areas than in most other Northeast neighborhoods.