Guessing someone’s voting.

[nclib]

Does anyone want to take a stab at these...

-white male evangelical in the South
-lesbian Jew in New England
-male with long hair
-alum of Ivy League school
-has 10 siblings
-regular user of pornography
-white without high school degree
-black, income over 100K
-NASCAR fan
-black, married to a white
-white, married to a black

[nclib]

-white male evangelical in the South - 0.8
-lesbian Jew in New England - 0.1
-male with long hair - 0.4
-alum of Ivy League school 0.6
-has 10 siblings - 0.3
-regular user of pornography 0.2
-white without high school degree - 0.35
-black, income over 100K - 0.15
-NASCAR fan - 0.6
-black, married to a white - 0.1
-white, married to a black - 0.2

Republicans aren't that pure and Ivy league grads are definetly not that conservative.  NASCAR fan should probably be a bit higher for Bush too.

I would have thought that Ivy League types would be at least 55% Kerry. The lean would be even stronger when controlled for income.

[nclib]

-has 10 siblings - 0.3

This might favor Kerry only because of the disproportionate number of racial minorities in that group.

My guess, however, would be that whites with 10+ siblings lean conservative.