Guessing someone’s voting.

[dazzleman]

I can sometimes tell people's political views just by the tone of voice that they use.  Women who have an "outraged" approach to everything are usually Democrats, as are guys who have a whiny tinge to their voice.

I also think there is a correlation among women between attractiveness and political views.  The more attractive a woman is, the greater the chance that she is a Republican.

[dazzleman]

By using Shira's method, I should be a Kerry voter.

How come?

I think J. J. is a brother.  I like people who break the mold...

[dazzleman]

-white male evangelical in the South - 0.8
-lesbian Jew in New England - 0.1
-male with long hair - 0.4
-alum of Ivy League school 0.6
-has 10 siblings - 0.3
-regular user of pornography 0.2
-white without high school degree - 0.35
-black, income over 100K - 0.15
-NASCAR fan - 0.6
-black, married to a white - 0.1
-white, married to a black - 0.2

Republicans aren't that pure and Ivy league grads are definetly not that conservative.  NASCAR fan should probably be a bit higher for Bush too.

I know plenty of Republicans who look at porn....it's definitely a myth that Republicans aren't interested in sex.

[dazzleman]

We are having fun here, but the issue of who is a Republican and who is a Democrat is a very serious one. The nation is sharply divided.
The first indicator is the geographical contiguity of the red and blue states. The battleground states are mostly on the bordering area between the two countries. Florida is deep in the south area of the red country, but Florida itself is geographically divided into two states.
More important are the behavioral, mental and cultural differences between the “reds” and the “blues”. It is the same situation as in Canada, except for the lingual differences. Everyone who visited Quebec noticed that the difference with the rest of Canada is not only French vs. English but much deeper than that.

I've traveled to different parts of the country, and I am a conservative living in a "blue" state.  I have to say that except for the lunatic fringe on either end, which are a relatively small percentage of people (San Francisco liberals vs. extreme bible-belt conservatives), our differences are nowhere near as great as the differences in Canada.

Our greatest divide continues to be along racial lines.

[dazzleman]

By using Shira's method, I should be a Kerry voter.

How come?

I think J. J. is a brother.  I like people who break the mold...

Part Amerindian, though my brown eyes come from my mother (who was completely European).  Culturally, I've been referred to as "homeboy" on several occasions.  :-)  It has to do with my address.

I do like in a ward, in a large city, Phila, that was 90% for Kerry.  I do NOT make more than $50.000.

I do love how liberals stereotype (he said through grinding teeth).

I think it's great when people break those stereotypes.  Keep driving those liberals, many of whom are really narrow-minded bigots, crazy.

[dazzleman]

Shira, this is a very interesting analysis, and probably not far from what a lot of political strategists do when trying to determine where to find potential votes.

How do you weight different characteristics when they conflict with each other?  For example, what if you have a Jewish member of the NRA?  Or an evangelical Christian who belongs to NOW?

My general characteristics are:

White
Male
High income
Live in suburbs
Own home
Work in finance industry
Heterosexual
Social Moderate to Conservative
Unmarried
Live in Northeast

Except for the last two, all these factors point toward a Republican vote.  In my local town, most people are white and middle to high income, but John Kerry had a very narrow majority in my town.