Guessing someone’s voting.

[patrick1]

They never left the U.S. (80% for Bush) one is clearly wrong and is an attempt to paint the average Repubican as parochial.  The most frequent world travelers are business travelers- A group that would favor Bush.  Furthermore, the urban black and poor don't make it to the other side of the Atlantic very often either.  The eye color thing is not verifiable but you must remember that there are lot of Irish, German, English Italian etc etc that have brown eyes.   
High School teacher is also way off.  Maybe 60-40.  There is no way Kerry would get 80% likelihood.

[patrick1]

60% hybrid car for Bush??  The South and Plains also generally prefers College Football- Nebraska, Oklahoma, Alabama, Ole Miss, etc

[patrick1]

there is no way 75% of people who live in towns of 7000 residents voted for Bush. Probably closer to 58% or so.

True^^^.  80% Kerry for cities of 700,000 is too high also.  L.A., Houston, Phoenix , San Diego, San Antonio, Dallas, Indianapolis etc, etc would all bring this down margin down significantly.  Kerry's results in New York City wasn't even 80%- Result was 75% to 24%.  For people living in a city with over 700,000 people I would guess somewhere in the 60's. 

[patrick1]

They never left the U.S. (80% for Bush) one is clearly wrong and is an attempt to paint the average Repubican as parochial.  The most frequent world travelers are business travelers- A group that would favor Bush.  Furthermore, the urban black and poor don't make it to the other side of the Atlantic very often either.  The eye color thing is not verifiable but you must remember that there are lot of Irish, German, English Italian etc etc that have brown eyes.   
High School teacher is also way off.  Maybe 60-40.  There is no way Kerry would get 80% likelihood.

Say someone asks you what is the probability that voter X voted for Bush. You have never seen this person you don't know where he/she lives. In other words you don't have any information about him/her. In this case your answer must be 0.51.

Now, assume you get some limited information: the person has never left the US. Will you, in this case continue with the 0.51 or will you change it?

Were I in a room with 10 such persons, I would not presume that 8 of them were Kerry voters.  Being a betting man, I would take Bush if the point spread was an 80% line that he would vote for Kerry.  It is just too high of an assumption.  Bush .45 seems more reasonable only because people from the N.E. and California do tend to travel aboard slightly more than some other parts. 

[patrick1]

On Election Day, I stood at an intersection with my school's Young Democrats Club waving Kerry signs.  It was remarkable how you could tell almost automatically who would beep in support and who would give you the finger or stick their tongue out at you.  I don't think I saw a single African American not beep in support.  Meanwhile, people in SUV's and pick up trucks who responded at all usually responded negatively.

Where were you for curiosities sake?  Do you go to school in NY?

[patrick1]

-white male evangelical in the South - 0.8
-lesbian Jew in New England - 0.1
-male with long hair - 0.4
-alum of Ivy League school 0.6
-has 10 siblings - 0.3
-regular user of pornography 0.2
-white without high school degree - 0.35
-black, income over 100K - 0.15
-NASCAR fan - 0.6
-black, married to a white - 0.1
-white, married to a black - 0.2

Republicans aren't that pure and Ivy league grads are definetly not that conservative.  NASCAR fan should probably be a bit higher for Bush too.