Thailand 2011

[Gustaf]

The Hitler thing was in reference to libertarians saying things like "Well Hitler expanded the power of government so he was obviously left wing." It's blatantly idiotic to anyone who isn't a radical libertarian, but it's not too far off from calling Thaksin some type of left winger on those grounds. It should be blatantly obvious that all Thaksin cared about was pandering to his base of voters anyway. Robert Mugabe's base of support could also be described as "rural poor" and he started out with similar economic policies too.

Thaksin's party was called "Thai Rak Thai", which means "Thais Love Thais". That's basically a sentiment echoed when the BNP says things like "Britain for the British." He was an extreme nationalist and the rural poor often respond well to nationalistic sentiment. I've heard libertarians say things like that the BNP is left wing too. Was Jorg Haider left wing? His party proposed the nationalization of all agriculture, something that no other party did. In addition to his nationalism Thaksin had a horrible record of corruption, vote fraud, and a horrible human rights record of extrajudicial killings. Do you think the Muslims in southern Thailand are all fascists or aristocrats? That's what their voting patterns would imply if you accept "Thaksin = leftist/opposition = fascist" Did Samak become a leftist at some point before becoming PM too?

Furthermore the last election before Thaksin's ouster was boycotted by ALL opposition parties, not just the Democrats but also the conservative Chart Thai Party. Thaksin's party was later banned for pretty blatant vote fraud.

And Thanom Kittikachorn, a supporter of democracy? LOL.

Oh are you calling Xahar and Hashemite fascists too? They share opebo and I's views in regards to this.

I'm not saying that you're a fascist. I'm saying your only reason to oppose Thaksin is that Opebo does so. I never Thaksin was a great guy. But there can be no question that the party of the poor is more of the left than the party of the rich. Why do you want to support giving the unelected monarch so much power? Why do you oppose redistribution of wealth to the poor? Why do you oppose letting the party with more popular support actually running in the election?

All Thai politics seem pretty corrupt. Regardless, the rich elites always accuse the left parties and groups of being corrupt. It's what the Dixiecrats said of black office holders during the Reconstruction, for instance.

What is really amusing is that neither you nor your beloved Opebo would ever support the party that wants to give money to the poor against the party that wnats to protect the priveleges of the rich in any other country. Opebo does so because he actually lives there idn isn't a real left-winger and you do so because he does which is even more stupid.

[they don't love you like i love you]

So are Xahar and Hashemite fascists or people who based their political views only on what opebo supports? Are the Muslims of southern Thailand hardcore royalists?

[Insula Dei]

So are Xahar and Hashemite fascists or people who based their political views only on what opebo supports? Are the Muslims of southern Thailand hardcore royalists?

Would you even care about Thai politics if opebo lived in Cambodia?

[Gustaf]

So are Xahar and Hashemite fascists or people who based their political views only on what opebo supports? Are the Muslims of southern Thailand hardcore royalists?

I've no idea what they said on the topic. You seem to think that one must either have your idiotic view or be a devout supporter of the King, since you always fall into some kind of either-or fallacy (I'm sure it has a cool name on wikipedia or tvtropes that you can look up), but that's not true.

For instance, I can recognize that Thaksin is likely a corrupt bastard while at the same time realize that he's the more left-winged of the political sides and that it's reasonable that whoever has the most popular support should be allowed to form the government in a democratic society. As well as thinking that breaking down the traditional elite is probably a good thing in such an unequal society.

[opebo]

Come on, Gustaf, Thaksin is a demagogue, who is adopting populist rhetoric purely to gain power.  'Leftism' doesn't really enter into this whole controversy above the level of the poor red-shirted extremists who got shot in the Silom Park.   I would certainly agree that the side I prefer has some fascist elements, though like most attempts at 'democracy' fascism is ascendant regardless of what party wins.  Democracy seems to me to be more the problem than 'fascism' - the majority of the people can always be counted on to prefer what I dislike.

Alas for me, it looks like the horrible Taksins are about to win and win big tomorrow.

[redcommander]

Is there any reason for the Thaskins to think that contesting another election under another banner will prevent the military from being involved? They were deposed in a coup last time they won an election, and will most likely be thrown out if they win.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Posters are not permitted to call for military coups on this board. Thanks/diolch.

[opebo]

Posters are not permitted to call for military coups on this board. Thanks/diolch.

Why not?

[jaichind]

see
http://203.150.244.91/web/en/page6.php
for latest
PTP set for majority.  PTP with 262 out of 500 for now will have an alliance with CP with 19 for a solid coalition government.  Rumors of talks between PTP and the military are ongoing into the night with a lot of details to be "worked out".

[jaichind]

Looking at the results it seems polls were right about PTP taking a majority but wrong about PTP taking a majority of the constituency in Bangkok.  PTP took 10 out of 33 and DP took 23 out of 33.  Party list wise DP took 41% and PTP took 39% in Bangkok.

[Hash]

Any place with party list results by province? Me want make map.

[opebo]

...Rumors of talks between PTP and the military are ongoing into the night with a lot of details to be "worked out".

Be careful, I don't think it is allowed on this board to mention the possibility of military remedies; your rumors of talks imply such a possibility.

Of course I am sure that there could be no such talks between the PTP and the Thai military, as a coup d'état is not only atrocious but impossible.

[opebo]

Any place with party list results by province? Me want make map.

Yes here you go: http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/election/map-thailand

Here's the rough map I've made from that site, leaving a few provinces grey as they were too mixed to give a definite color (you could do something more complicated like lines or shading but I don't know how).  The big province in the northeast that's grey (Ubon Ratchathani) has a surprising amount of Democrat strength, the grey ones around Central Thailand, near Bangkok tend to be mixed Pueu Thai (Taksin), Democrat, Bumjai-Thai, and Chart Thai pattana. The Red areas - kind of close in suburbs of Bangkok are essentially slums, or low-rent areas inhabited mostly by people from Isaan.

Most of what you see that is red or yellow on the map is downright dominated by that party - Democrats dominate the south and Bangkok, the reds the heartland Isaan and North.  

Interesting note that the Bumjai-Thai and Chart Thai pattana have moved their support around quite a bit, still dominating their respective home provinces (Buriram and Supanburi), but catching very different ones outside that compared to previous elections.  Finally, the blue party on the map, Palun Chong, totally dominates Chonburi province (the home of the biggest sex tourist town) but has no strength elsewhere.

[redcommander]

Posters are not permitted to call for military coups on this board. Thanks/diolch.

I'm not calling for one, I'm just stating that such a scenario is a real risk.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh, it's perfectly fine for people to mention the possibility of a military coup; there's no point in denying reality just because it's rather unpleasant. But cheering it on? No. In the same vein, I wouldn't allow someone to cheer on (say) the BNP here. If we are to have civilised discourse (and this is one board on this forum where we generally manage that) then there have to be a few limits here and there.

I do appreciate the irony of the whinging though.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

The new PM is kinda hot.

[opebo]

Oh, it's perfectly fine for people to mention the possibility of a military coup; there's no point in denying reality just because it's rather unpleasant. But cheering it on? No. In the same vein, I wouldn't allow someone to cheer on (say) the BNP here. If we are to have civilised discourse (and this is one board on this forum where we generally manage that) then there have to be a few limits here and there.

If you are serious you're comically arrogant, but if not, ha ha, well done -  nice satire of an arrogant dictator.

Of course many people do support military coups, why wouldn't we?  You mention 'denying reality' and then make the assumption that the coup d'état is 'rather unpleasant'.  Of course the salient point about it is that in reality the coup d'état is very, extremely pleasant for a significant group, and most certainly for yours truly.  To deny this important fact about Thai politics is to completely fail to understand said nation, and of course to engage in the most egregious cultural imperialism (understandable, I know you're british).

I do appreciate the irony of the whinging though.

Not a bit of irony involved, Al.  Apples and oranges - this forum is nothing like a nation-state.  You might as well charge someone for murder for dreaming about killing someone.  

Rather than solely waste my time dickering with the dictator of the board, I'll repost my laboriously fashioned map of the province-by-province constituency results, which, much to my chagrin, failed to garner any response the first time.  Gentlemen, it really isn't a bad map, if you want a moderately accurate sense of this election:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/election/map-thailand

Here's the rough map I've made from this site, leaving a few provinces grey as they were too mixed to give a definite color (you could do something more complicated like lines or shading but I don't know how).  The big province in the northeast that's grey (Ubon Ratchathani) has a surprising amount of Democrat strength, the grey ones around Central Thailand, near Bangkok tend to be mixed Pueu Thai (Taksin), Democrat, Bumjai-Thai, and Chart Thai pattana. The Red areas - kind of close in suburbs of Bangkok are essentially slums, or low-rent areas inhabited mostly by people from Isaan.

Most of what you see that is red or yellow on the map is downright dominated by that party - Democrats dominate the south and Bangkok, the reds the heartland Isaan and North.  

Interesting note that the Bumjai-Thai and Chart Thai pattana have moved their support around quite a bit, still dominating their respective home provinces (Buriram and Supanburi), but catching very different ones outside that compared to previous elections.  Finally, the blue party on the map, Palun Chong, totally dominates Chonburi province (the home of the biggest sex tourist town) but has no strength elsewhere.

[minionofmidas]

Just how mixed are the results in those central parts of the state?

[opebo]

Just how mixed are the results in those central parts of the state?

You can check exactly at the site I provided as a source: http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/election/map-thailand

In most cases it was like one seat for Chart Patanna, one for BumJai-Thai, and one each for Democrats and Taksin.  Or other combinations which simply didn't give me a good reason for giving the province one color, and - apologies - I don't know how to make it checked or dashed or diagonaled, whatever you call that sort of thing.

[opebo]

Just how mixed are the results in those central parts of the state?

OK checked it for you:

In the Central plains which you asked about, the grey provinces are like this:
Chachoengsao
Dem 2, Taksin 2
Utthai Thani
Dem 1, Chart Pattana 1
Lop Buri
Chart pattana 2, Taksin 2
Saraburi
Dem 1, Chart Pattana 1, Taksin 1
Nakon Sawan
Dem 1, Taksin 2

As for Ubon Ratchathani way over to the upper right, in the Northeast, I think I may have erred in not making it red, but I was just so amazed to see several Democrats winning in the Northeast (presumably they were from the large city of Ubon Ratchathani at the center of the province).  Even in the quite large cities of Khon Kaen and Udon Thani no Democrats managed to win.  Only in Ubon.:
Ubon Ratchathani
Chart Pattana 1, Democrats 3, Taksin 7

[opebo]

Is there any reason for the Thaskins to think that contesting another election under another banner will prevent the military from being involved? They were deposed in a coup last time they won an election, and will most likely be thrown out if they win.

A lot of people here think that three factors could prevent this 1) people might be tired of coups and more 'fired up' against them, after the events of the last year or two with the Red Shirts and so forth, 2) the election is a specific and fairly overwhelming popular rejection of the coup of five years ago as well as government's handling of the Red riots since, and 3) there might be some kind of a compromise behind the scenes in the works, where the army and you-know-who (I don't mean him exactly, but that cabal) have come to some agreement with the Taksins.

Personally I feel that these are very reasonable speculations, however, I can only quote the historical list to show that a coup is possible:

1932
1933
1939
1947
1951
1957
1958
1971
1976
1977
1991
2006

There were also a number of attempted coups, including several in the 80s.  I have to admit that the frequency of coups has been going down, but I think the record shows a willingness to act, and 2006 most stunningly so.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of course many people do support military coups, why wouldn't we?

Yes, I understand that. But I don't approve of it (I was raised to think of fascism as a bad thing and I'm too stuck in my ways to change now) and don't think that it is appropriate on a board dedicated to the democratic process and (in the end) to the idea of democracy.

[opebo]

Yes, I understand that. But I don't approve of it (I was raised to think of fascism as a bad thing and I'm too stuck in my ways to change now) and don't think that it is appropriate on a board dedicated to the democratic process and (in the end) to the idea of democracy.

Actually coups d'état are not connected to fascism exclusively - they can be related to numerous political ideologies and movements (in the country under discussion here they supported an 'Ancien Régime' much more than any 'fascism').  

And after all, this board is dedicated not to advocating or supporting the 'democratic process', but simply to examining it (and of course it was once dedicated discussing it, but that is in the past, apparently).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And after all, this board is dedicated not to advocating or supporting the 'democratic process', but simply to examining it (and of course it was once dedicated discussing it, but that is in the past, apparently).

My world, my rules.

[opebo]

And after all, this board is dedicated not to advocating or supporting the 'democratic process', but simply to examining it (and of course it was once dedicated discussing it, but that is in the past, apparently).

My world, my rules.

So please lay out for us which political ideas are allowed and which are to be censored.