Thailand 2011

[jaichind]

In latest Centre of Dhurakij Pundit University poll, of 33 constituencies in Bangkok, PTP is ahead in 22 and  Democrats up in 6.  As for a preferred choice of prime minister, 47% and 39% of the respondents want Pheu Thai candidate Yingluck Shinawatra and Democrat candidate Abhisit Vejjajiva respectively. Rak Santi’s Police General Purachai Piumsombun and Rak Thailand’s Chuvit Kamolvisit follow with 7% and 4% respectively.
In another poll for Bangkok,  37.9% of respondents said they would vote for constituency MP candidates of PTP, followed by the Democrats (22.2%), and Rak Santi (1.2%).
The Democrats came out with their own projection that they will win 185 out of the 500 seats where they will win 130 out of the 375 constituencies and 55 out of 125 party-list seats.  Democrats have 165 today.  This projection calls for the Democrats to win 22 out of the 33 Bangkok constituencies.  These polls indicate that these Democrat projections are not realistic.  And even if they were 185 seats will most likely be less than what PTP will win even under this Democrat rosy scenerio. 
Bangkok is where the Democrats should be strong.  If this is any indicator PTP will win and it could be with an absolute majority.

[jaichind]

One interesting angle in this election is that both Abhisit Vejjajiva  and Thaksin Shinawatra are Thai Chinese.  Thai Chinese form 14% of the Thai popluation but dominate the Thai economy.  Abhisit Vejjajiva great-grandfather had a surname of Yuan and after serving as minster of health for the Thai Royal government, the Thai king granted his family the name Vejjajiva which means medical profession.  Thaksin Shinawatra family came to Thailand in the 1860s and had the surname Chiang.  They changed it in the 1930s during the anti-Chinese movenment at that time.  That anti-Chinese movenment was led by another Chinese Thai prime minster Plaek Pibulsongkram.  Plaek Pibulsongkram  was the real father of modern Thailand.  He renamed the country's name from Siam to Thailand and led Thailand into a alliance with Japan in WWII and then USA in the Cold War.  He mandated cultural and political Thai nationalism mostly along the lines of the Fascist movement in Europe at that time.  It would be the equivalent of having a person of Jewish background lead the Nazi party in Germany and then proceed with a radical German Nationalist agenda.  One of the reasons given by the Thai army for the overthrow of Thaksin Shinawatra  was that he disrespected the King with and undertone of disloyalty because he was not a real Thia being of Chinese background.  This election this line does not work as well since Abhisit Vejjajiva  is also of Chinese background.

[jaichind]

see
http://203.150.244.91/web/en/page6.php
for latest
PTP set for majority.  PTP with 262 out of 500 for now will have an alliance with CP with 19 for a solid coalition government.  Rumors of talks between PTP and the military are ongoing into the night with a lot of details to be "worked out".

[jaichind]

Looking at the results it seems polls were right about PTP taking a majority but wrong about PTP taking a majority of the constituency in Bangkok.  PTP took 10 out of 33 and DP took 23 out of 33.  Party list wise DP took 41% and PTP took 39% in Bangkok.