Thailand 2011

[opebo]

Come on, Gustaf, Thaksin is a demagogue, who is adopting populist rhetoric purely to gain power.  'Leftism' doesn't really enter into this whole controversy above the level of the poor red-shirted extremists who got shot in the Silom Park.   I would certainly agree that the side I prefer has some fascist elements, though like most attempts at 'democracy' fascism is ascendant regardless of what party wins.  Democracy seems to me to be more the problem than 'fascism' - the majority of the people can always be counted on to prefer what I dislike.

Alas for me, it looks like the horrible Taksins are about to win and win big tomorrow.

[opebo]

Posters are not permitted to call for military coups on this board. Thanks/diolch.

Why not?

[opebo]

...Rumors of talks between PTP and the military are ongoing into the night with a lot of details to be "worked out".

Be careful, I don't think it is allowed on this board to mention the possibility of military remedies; your rumors of talks imply such a possibility.

Of course I am sure that there could be no such talks between the PTP and the Thai military, as a coup d'état is not only atrocious but impossible.

[opebo]

Any place with party list results by province? Me want make map.

Yes here you go: http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/election/map-thailand

Here's the rough map I've made from that site, leaving a few provinces grey as they were too mixed to give a definite color (you could do something more complicated like lines or shading but I don't know how).  The big province in the northeast that's grey (Ubon Ratchathani) has a surprising amount of Democrat strength, the grey ones around Central Thailand, near Bangkok tend to be mixed Pueu Thai (Taksin), Democrat, Bumjai-Thai, and Chart Thai pattana. The Red areas - kind of close in suburbs of Bangkok are essentially slums, or low-rent areas inhabited mostly by people from Isaan.

Most of what you see that is red or yellow on the map is downright dominated by that party - Democrats dominate the south and Bangkok, the reds the heartland Isaan and North.  

Interesting note that the Bumjai-Thai and Chart Thai pattana have moved their support around quite a bit, still dominating their respective home provinces (Buriram and Supanburi), but catching very different ones outside that compared to previous elections.  Finally, the blue party on the map, Palun Chong, totally dominates Chonburi province (the home of the biggest sex tourist town) but has no strength elsewhere.

[opebo]

Oh, it's perfectly fine for people to mention the possibility of a military coup; there's no point in denying reality just because it's rather unpleasant. But cheering it on? No. In the same vein, I wouldn't allow someone to cheer on (say) the BNP here. If we are to have civilised discourse (and this is one board on this forum where we generally manage that) then there have to be a few limits here and there.

If you are serious you're comically arrogant, but if not, ha ha, well done -  nice satire of an arrogant dictator.

Of course many people do support military coups, why wouldn't we?  You mention 'denying reality' and then make the assumption that the coup d'état is 'rather unpleasant'.  Of course the salient point about it is that in reality the coup d'état is very, extremely pleasant for a significant group, and most certainly for yours truly.  To deny this important fact about Thai politics is to completely fail to understand said nation, and of course to engage in the most egregious cultural imperialism (understandable, I know you're british).

I do appreciate the irony of the whinging though.

Not a bit of irony involved, Al.  Apples and oranges - this forum is nothing like a nation-state.  You might as well charge someone for murder for dreaming about killing someone.  

Rather than solely waste my time dickering with the dictator of the board, I'll repost my laboriously fashioned map of the province-by-province constituency results, which, much to my chagrin, failed to garner any response the first time.  Gentlemen, it really isn't a bad map, if you want a moderately accurate sense of this election:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/election/map-thailand

Here's the rough map I've made from this site, leaving a few provinces grey as they were too mixed to give a definite color (you could do something more complicated like lines or shading but I don't know how).  The big province in the northeast that's grey (Ubon Ratchathani) has a surprising amount of Democrat strength, the grey ones around Central Thailand, near Bangkok tend to be mixed Pueu Thai (Taksin), Democrat, Bumjai-Thai, and Chart Thai pattana. The Red areas - kind of close in suburbs of Bangkok are essentially slums, or low-rent areas inhabited mostly by people from Isaan.

Most of what you see that is red or yellow on the map is downright dominated by that party - Democrats dominate the south and Bangkok, the reds the heartland Isaan and North.  

Interesting note that the Bumjai-Thai and Chart Thai pattana have moved their support around quite a bit, still dominating their respective home provinces (Buriram and Supanburi), but catching very different ones outside that compared to previous elections.  Finally, the blue party on the map, Palun Chong, totally dominates Chonburi province (the home of the biggest sex tourist town) but has no strength elsewhere.

[opebo]

Just how mixed are the results in those central parts of the state?

You can check exactly at the site I provided as a source: http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/election/map-thailand

In most cases it was like one seat for Chart Patanna, one for BumJai-Thai, and one each for Democrats and Taksin.  Or other combinations which simply didn't give me a good reason for giving the province one color, and - apologies - I don't know how to make it checked or dashed or diagonaled, whatever you call that sort of thing.

[opebo]

Just how mixed are the results in those central parts of the state?

OK checked it for you:

In the Central plains which you asked about, the grey provinces are like this:
Chachoengsao
Dem 2, Taksin 2
Utthai Thani
Dem 1, Chart Pattana 1
Lop Buri
Chart pattana 2, Taksin 2
Saraburi
Dem 1, Chart Pattana 1, Taksin 1
Nakon Sawan
Dem 1, Taksin 2

As for Ubon Ratchathani way over to the upper right, in the Northeast, I think I may have erred in not making it red, but I was just so amazed to see several Democrats winning in the Northeast (presumably they were from the large city of Ubon Ratchathani at the center of the province).  Even in the quite large cities of Khon Kaen and Udon Thani no Democrats managed to win.  Only in Ubon.:
Ubon Ratchathani
Chart Pattana 1, Democrats 3, Taksin 7

[opebo]

Is there any reason for the Thaskins to think that contesting another election under another banner will prevent the military from being involved? They were deposed in a coup last time they won an election, and will most likely be thrown out if they win.

A lot of people here think that three factors could prevent this 1) people might be tired of coups and more 'fired up' against them, after the events of the last year or two with the Red Shirts and so forth, 2) the election is a specific and fairly overwhelming popular rejection of the coup of five years ago as well as government's handling of the Red riots since, and 3) there might be some kind of a compromise behind the scenes in the works, where the army and you-know-who (I don't mean him exactly, but that cabal) have come to some agreement with the Taksins.

Personally I feel that these are very reasonable speculations, however, I can only quote the historical list to show that a coup is possible:

1932
1933
1939
1947
1951
1957
1958
1971
1976
1977
1991
2006

There were also a number of attempted coups, including several in the 80s.  I have to admit that the frequency of coups has been going down, but I think the record shows a willingness to act, and 2006 most stunningly so.

[opebo]

Yes, I understand that. But I don't approve of it (I was raised to think of fascism as a bad thing and I'm too stuck in my ways to change now) and don't think that it is appropriate on a board dedicated to the democratic process and (in the end) to the idea of democracy.

Actually coups d'état are not connected to fascism exclusively - they can be related to numerous political ideologies and movements (in the country under discussion here they supported an 'Ancien Régime' much more than any 'fascism').  

And after all, this board is dedicated not to advocating or supporting the 'democratic process', but simply to examining it (and of course it was once dedicated discussing it, but that is in the past, apparently).

[opebo]

And after all, this board is dedicated not to advocating or supporting the 'democratic process', but simply to examining it (and of course it was once dedicated discussing it, but that is in the past, apparently).

My world, my rules.

So please lay out for us which political ideas are allowed and which are to be censored.

[opebo]

I'm proud to say that my map more or less matches Wikipedia's, which as far as I can tell was made a few days after mine:

Wiki:


Mine:

[opebo]

Finally, gentlemen, I found an actual constituency map of this election:



Very interesting stuff, in some cases it serves to confirm my guesses  - for example 23 central, richer bangkok constituencies voted Dem, while 10 poorer  more peripheral but still urban constituencies voted Taksin, and in other cases throw me for a loop  - for example look at Ubon Ratchathani in the northeast - the one place in the Northeast you see a knot of several Democrat constituencies.  While some of them do look like they're in the urban heart of the eponymous capital of the province, a few look like they're quite rural.. very interesting.

[opebo]

Yeah, sorry guys, the ethnic and linguistic differences between Isaan and to a slightly lesser extent the North are somewhat common knowledge, and I didn't think to mention them.  They are extremely important to Thai politics.

Isaan people do in fact not only speak a different dialect they look quite different from Central Thais.  I can identify whether someone comes from Isaan, the North, South, or is a 'real Thai' about 80% of the time.