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Author Topic: 1992 -President George H. W. Bush Re-Elected  (Read 3827 times)
Frodo
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« on: June 23, 2011, 10:45:12 pm »
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I have been watching the 1992 presidential debates -here is the opening debate- and have a few questions.  First, could President George Bush have been re-elected, and if so, how?  Also, what would his second term have been like?  
« Last Edit: June 23, 2011, 10:46:46 pm by Frodo »Logged

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« Reply #1 on: June 24, 2011, 06:20:20 pm »

I think Bush needed Perot to stay out of it so he only had to face one line of attack in the general election, not two.
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« Reply #2 on: July 02, 2011, 01:47:53 pm »
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Not too much difference in practice.

Bush would have governed a bit more socially liberal and with wiser economic policy. We'd get welfare reform but not Clinton's financial deregulation or enabling of telecom consolidations.

Without telecom consolidation we have better and cheaper internet along with better cable than OTL.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #3 on: July 02, 2011, 03:36:19 pm »
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democrats gain seats in 1994 to get a majority similar to what they had after the 1974 midterms.
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Hotblack Desiato
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« Reply #4 on: July 02, 2011, 07:43:30 pm »
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democrats gain seats in 1994 to get a majority similar to what they had after the 1974 midterms.
No. The boom that happened under Clinton would happen under bush instead and we'd see a slight GOP turn.

Still democratic majority, but the swing votes would be blue dogs and there'd be enough blue dogs and republicans for it to govern conservatively. Not as conservative socially or economically as under Clinton's congress but still conservative.
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« Reply #5 on: December 01, 2011, 04:38:10 pm »
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Bump

Watch my timeline on the 1992 election and on. I've got an interesting 1994 mid term elections coming up after the 1992 elections.
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the birth of modern america & onward election Frederick Douglas becomes the 1st African American president of the united states when he wins election to the office in 1892 only 30 years after the height of slavery in the United States. He narrowly wins reelection in 1896 against William Jennings Bryan. Douglas runs again in 1900 and even indicated his interest in a 4th run in 1904 but Grover Cleveland wins the 1900 election.
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« Reply #6 on: December 01, 2011, 06:05:54 pm »
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If Perot didn't run (I know, he took more votes from Clinton but his role in the race made it to where Bush faced two directions of attack instead of just one) and Pat Buchanan didn't go on his whole "Culture War" spiel I could possibly see Bush pulling off a close upset election.  Especially if Clinton's scandal problems get worse.
That is the only way I see Bush getting re-elected, barring a better economy than IRL.

I imagine that if Bush was re-elected wouldn'tve been that much different than IRL.  Maybe no push for Universal Healthcare (which only seems to be brought up when a Democrat is elected President), maybe a weaker version of the AWB and Brady Bill, NAFTA would still be passed but probably without the modifications of the Clinton/Gore Administration, probably no "Don't Ask, Don't Tell", maybe not even a "Defense of Marriage Act".  Welfare Reform is passed, but probably not on the level as IRL (due to Democratic strength in Congress).  Pretty much an administration somewhere in between Reagan and Clinton, ideologically.
By 1996 there is Republican fatigue and a Democrat slightly to the left of Bill Clinton is elected President.  Maybe Douglas Wilder of Virginia gets elected America's first black president 12 years before Obama did IRL.
That's my guess.
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« Reply #7 on: March 04, 2012, 12:32:35 am »
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1. Read my lips no new taxes.
2. No Ross Perot
3. Saddam is removed from office in 1991.

One of these two things and he wins a second term.
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« Reply #8 on: March 10, 2012, 03:48:39 pm »
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1. Read my lips no new taxes.
2. No Ross Perot
3. Saddam is removed from office in 1991.

One of these two things and he wins a second term.

I think that you'd need someone less moderate than Clinton, or with less likability.  Maybe we have a Cuomo candidacy, no Quayle, or something.  Perhaps Powell for VP, up against Jerry Brown / Mario Cuomo, so as to get the 1988 scenario of the Dems picking someone more presidential for VP than the presidential candidate.
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« Reply #9 on: May 17, 2012, 09:25:36 pm »
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The way in which G.H.W. Bush would have been reelected would have been for the economic uptick that started in October 1992 to start a month or two earlier. Bush-Qualye 1992 was able to significantly close the gap between Clinton-Gore by focusing on economic growth and throwing around that scary word "liberal" when describing his Southern centrist opponents. Had the economy shown growth signs and the October 1992 Iran-Contra revelations against Bush not been released Bush could well have won a narrow reelection:



Bush/Quayle (R): 282 EV
Clinton/Gore (D): 256 EV
Perot/Stockdale (I): 0 EV   

The states of Pennsylvania, Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Nevada and Ohio are all decided by less than 10,000 or so votes. Thus, the 1992 election probably would have had numerous state election recounts, but for sake of the thread President Bush survives these issues.

The second term of George Herbert Walker Bush leaves many questions in terms of fiscal and foreign policy. In terms of fiscal policy Bush could either follow the path of the first term (raising taxes to battle rising deficits) or govern as his son did with expansionary fiscal policies (cutting taxes on the wealthy while increasing spending). Let's say that Bush, having been reelected in an upset, is feeling that he has much political capital to spend (as his son bragged in 2004 despite being reelected by 3% of the vote) and goes for broke in the fiscal realm. He fights for the 1993 Bush Tax Cuts which are attacked by Speaker Tom Foley as being "plain and simple tax cuts for the rich" and lamented by conservative fiscal hawks as "unnecessary economic stimulus which will only increase the national debt." Despite these attacks, the appeal of a tax cut proves too much for the Congress and an amended across the board tax cut is approved, but the wealthy benefit the most.

There will be no Hillary-care debacle, but President Bush pushes Medicaid and Social Security reform acts which focus on "private sector solutions." The Grey Panthers, AARP and other senior citizens groups attack this idea and debate over the plan is the marquee issue of the 1994 midterm elections.

The H.W. Bush second term foreign policy is not an easy one to pinpoint. Brent Scowcroft was not a neoconservative and wisely opposed deposing Hussein in 1991. Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney also shared this opinion, amazing enough. I do not think that neoconservatives would be happy with a second term of H.W. Bush simply because he was not a student of Strauss or Kroeger and let very few neoconservative thinkers into his state or defense departments. I think that his second term foreign policy would reflect the first Clinton Administration's foreign adventures. Thus the intervention if Somalia, which Bush had approved of in his first term, would still occur and favorable trade relations with China and Vietnam would be approved of by the administration. In Rwanda Bush, like Clinton, would have left it up to the UN to handle the genocide. In the Balkans Bush may have begun bombings in 1993 or 1994 and would have ended the arms embargo on the former Yugoslavia, hurting American relations with Western Europe and cementing leftist movements in Central and Western Europe into the popular conscience of voters. Thus, you could see Chirac lose reelection as Mayor of Paris and never rise to the presidency of France and an earlier collapse of the Major government in the UK.

The 1994 midterm elections would have been a wash because the expanding economy would have helped Republicans but the "six year curse" would have benefited the dominant Democrats, thus the Democrats remain in control of Congress and there is no Speaker Newt Gingrich and probably no Senator Rick Santorum (of which I would not miss either).

The Bush Administration may well have seen scandals arise. I doubt Bush would have pardoned Casper Weinberger and the five other Iran-Contra figures thus leading to a trial where the truth about that sorry episode may well have come out, embarrassing the administration. After the 1993 WTC bombing and the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing Republicans may have called on their Republican president to "get tough on terror." While I do not see a huge new federal agency being established, Attorney General Giuliani (after losing the 1993 NYC mayor race he is given a consolation prize by Bush) overseeing a large crack-down on militia groups and investigations into terror groups.

In 1996 the country would have no doubt been sick of Republicans in the White House. The establishment of the Democratic Party selected Senator Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia as their nominee after a short primary battle with Senators Al Gore and John Kerry. The Republicans see a right-wing insurgency against Vice-President Quayle which knocks the veep out of the 1996 primaries fairly early. Former Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney and Senator Phil Gramm of Texas battle one another for most of the race with Cheney emerging as victor but insurgent conservatives dominating the platform committee and the convention. The 1996 election is an easy win for Rockefeller:



Rockefeller/Ben Nelson (D): 335 EV
Cheney/Gingrich (R): 203
Perot/Choate (Ref): 0 EV           
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thrillr1111
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« Reply #10 on: June 24, 2012, 09:18:28 pm »
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democrats gain seats in 1994 to get a majority similar to what they had after the 1974 midterms.
No. The boom that happened under Clinton would happen under bush instead and we'd see a slight GOP turn.

Still democratic majority, but the swing votes would be blue dogs and there'd be enough blue dogs and republicans for it to govern conservatively. Not as conservative socially or economically as under Clinton's congress but still conservative.

Clinton saved the day
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morgieb
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« Reply #11 on: June 27, 2012, 04:03:55 am »
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If Lee Atwater never had cancer, might Bush sneak a win?
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Frodo
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« Reply #12 on: July 21, 2013, 06:29:27 pm »
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bumping in case anyone else wants to comment. 
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barfbag
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« Reply #13 on: July 21, 2013, 08:18:26 pm »
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In 1996, Clinton put the Community Reinvestment Act on steroids which led to risky lending and community groups squandering money from places like J.P. Morgan. This led to the housing collapse in 2008. Had Bush Sr. got a second term, we would've avoided the housing collapse. Other things done to avoid the housing collapse would've been an increase in interest rates and tougher loan qualifications. NAFTA still would've been signed and welfare reform would've gotten passed. I fear the Democrats would've kept the House in 1994 though as the president's party normally loses seats and there wouldn't have been a backlash over Hillary Care. In 1996, Bob Dole would've run against John Kerry. Hillary Clinton would've never gone further than the senate and would've had to start in the U.S. House as a representative from Arkansas. They don't move to New York either. Bush Sr. would've responded to the bombing of the WTC in 1993 with force that sent a stronger message. Without Waco, there would be no Oklahoma City bombing. Saddam Hussein wouldn't have had the opportunity to assassinate George Bush and neither would he have violated U.N. resolutions 17 times between 1993-2001. He would've at least waited until Bush was out of office in 1997. If he had violated sanctions during Bush's second term, he would've quickly been taken out of power within the same time frame Bush Sr. had us in Iraq during his first term. In the 90's we had several chances to kill Osama Bin Laden and with the CIA and FBI being able to share information unlike during the Clinton administration, there would've been no 9/11 attacks and more than 3,000 people would still be alive.
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