Election Night 2004: Gore vs. McCain and On

[NHI]

Good Evening America, it is election night November 2, 2004. President Gore is in the fight of his political life. Four years ago he narrowly defeated Governor George Bush, and tonight needs to see if lightning will strike twice for him. As of the latest poll Sen. John McCain is leading by three points.

So let us begin, six states have closed and we have winners to project in them.

Beginning with Sen. McCain, he will carry:
Georgia: 57%-41%
Kentucky: 57%-41%
South Carolina: 59%-39%
Indiana: 56%-43%

For President Gore:
Vermont: 59%-39%

The state of Virginia is too close to call, but John McCain holds a narrow lead in the state.
49%-47%

R: 42
D:   3

[NHI]

7:30

We're back and we can project: West Virginia and North Carolina for Sen. McCain, but we cannot project Ohio as of yet.

R: 62
D:  3

8:00

It is eight o'clock here on the east coast and we have major projection to make in many important battle ground states. For Sen. McCain we project that he will carry:

Alabama: 61%-37%
Mississippi: 59%-39%
Missouri:   54%-45%
Oklahoma: 60%-39%
New Hampshire: 52%-45%

For President Gore we project him the winner in the states of:
Connecticut: 55%-43%
Maryland:     56%-42%
Delaware:    56%-42%
Maine:         52%-45%
Massachusetts: 59%-39%
New Jersey: 52%-45%
DC:             85%-14%

We cannot project winners in: Tennessee, Mr. Gore's home state, nor Pennsylvania and Florida. What do you make of this?

Well, Gore didn't carry Tennessee last time and I doubt he will this time. Pennsylvania not going for Gore at this hour is looking good. This has to be making the McCain campaign very happy as Pennsylvania was expected to go for Gore, he was leading in it, but now it is too close to call.

Now hold on one second we have a major projection to make. Sen. McCain has carried the state of Ohio. This is certainly good news for the McCain campaign, but the Gore did lose Ohio last time, so it may not be curtains for the campaign yet.

R: 125
D:   57

Looking at the polling from Ohio we can see that McCain has carried the state by a large margin, and I do have to wonder if this has national implication?

It's difficult to say. This election is McCain's to lose right now, but Gore is certainly not finished yet.

9:00

A big amount of electoral delegates up for grabs at the top of the hour and we can project winners in a handful of states:

President Gore:
Minnesota: 53%-44%
Michigan:   52%-45%
Rhode Island: 59%-39%
New York: 52%-45%
Illinois:     56%-43%

Sen. McCain:
Louisiana: 57%-42%
Colorado:  56%-43%
Arizona:    60%-39%
Nebraska:  59%-40%
Kansas:     61%-37%
South Dakota: 59%-39%
Texas:        59%-39%
Wyoming:   61%-38%

R: 204
D: 140

It is still Sen. McCain with a hefty lead over President Gore at this time. Sen. McCain also holds a lead in the popular vote as well. Is this going to be a Republican victory?

Well the West Coast still needs to report and we have many undecided states, but certainly right now McCain holds the edge.

We can also project that McCain has won Tennessee, Al Gore's home state.

R: 50%
D: 47%

It seems we can now project McCain the winner in Virginia as well.

R: 52%
D: 45%

We need to take a quick break, but we'll be back.

[NHI]

We're back and we have a major projection to make for the President. He will carry the state of Wisconsin; albeit narrowly.

D: 49%
R: 47%

Looking at some of the undecided states right now. John McCain leads President Gore in all of them save for Florida.

PA: 50%-48%
NM: 50%-47%
FL:  49%-48%

We can now project that New Mexico will go to McCain, this is rather telling because four years ago Al Gore carried narrowly over George Bush, but this is the first Gore state from 2000 to go to McCain.

R: 233
D: 150

Is it over for President Gore?

Just by looking at the map it certainly isn't pretty, but we'll see because the night is still young. Having said that he needs to carry Florida if he plans to win the Presidency.

Now wait, we have a major projection to make in the state of Florida. President Gore will carry the state of Florida. Hope is still alive in the Gore campaign, with Florida going for him we'll see if he is able to be reelected.

Yes, certainly Gore is in a better position right now, by Pennsylvania is still the question tonight. The fact that it has not been called is troubling.

10:00

R: 233
D: 177

10:00

We're back and we have states to put up on the board: For McCain we can project:
Nevada: 52%-45%
Montana: 58%-40%
Utah:       69%-30%

Iowa remains too close to call, with Gore holding a narrow lead: 49%-47%

R: 246
D: 177

10:30:

We're now drawing closer to the elven o'clock hour and it seems that there is some apprehension in the Gore Campaign.

Certainly the math is starting to become more difficult, but Pennsylvania remains the key to Gore's reelection. Looking at it now McCain seems to have expanded his lead.

R: 50%
D: 47%

Hold that thought, we have a projection to make that is certainly going to make the McCain campaign happy. Pennsylvania has gone for McCain.
This now brings McCain three delegates away from the Presidency.

R: 267
D: 177

It is now twenty minutes to eleven and we have another major projection to make, and this is a big one. The state of Iowa has gone to President Gore.

IA: 49%-46%

R: 267
D: 184

11:00

We're back, it's eleven o'clock and we have a major projection to make. Based on wins in Idaho and North Dakota, John McCain is now President-Elect of the United States. He will be the 44th President of the United States of America.

R: 274
D: 254

Final Results:

John McCain/Judd Gregg: 277 50.5%

Al Gore/Joe Lieberman:   261  48.0%

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

For the map, I'd switch PA and FL, and maybe give WV to Gore.

Still great job. The McCain presidency should be interesting.

[NHI]

Background:

Gore vs. Bush 2000

D: 292:
R: 246:

President Gore manages to pass a Health Care Reform Bill, six months into office. It wasn't quite like the Clinton Bill of the 90s, but it was approved by his fellow democrats and republicans as well as the American people.

The biggest moment of Gore's first year was September 11. The Terrorist Attack brought the US into the war in Afghanistan to destroy the Terrorist Network and to find or kill Osama Bin Laden. By the end of Gore's first term the war in Afghanistan had diminished, but Bin Laden remained at large.

Gore's Approval ratings remained fairly high following the war, but began to dip after the midterm elections which gave the Democrats control of both houses of Congress. However during that session his cap and trade bill went down in defeat and the economy began to sour by the start of this third year.

Despite his successes in Health Care and the War in Afghanistan the American public turned their back on Gore and voted for McCain who promised to revive the economy and kill Osama Bin Laden.

The Presidency of John McCain:

Key Cabinet Members:

Sec. of State: Colin Powell
Sec. of Defense: Lindsay Graham
Attorney General: Rudy Giuliani
Sec. of Education: Jeanne Shaheen
Sec of Health and Human Services: Mitt Romney

In President McCain inaugural address he declared that Osama Bin Laden would be defeated by the end of his first term.



One of President McCain's first steps was a surge in Afghanistan, stating that "the previous administration neglected to to deal with the threat we still face. This surge will help ride out the insurgent forces and cripple Al Qaeda's strength in the region."

McCain's decision was met with wide approval.

McCain Approval Rating:

A: 79%
D: 21%

Meanwhile Democrats began looking at their potential lineup for 2008:
Who do you Favor for the Democratic Nomination in 2008:

Hillary Clinton: 44%
John Kerry:      15%
Howard Dean:  14%
Bill Richardson: 11%
John Edwards:  9%
Undecided:       6%
Barack Obama: 1%

The Surge as it would come to be called was a successful venture that crippled the remaining network of Al Qaeda. The Surge also brought an end to Osama Bin Laden who was discovered to be living on the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

By McCain's state of the union in 2006 Bin Laden was dead.



"My fellow Americans, the mastermind of 9/11 is dead and America and the world can breathe a sigh of relief. The forces of good have triumphed over evil."

McCain's approval ratings shot through the roof, coupled with his economic package which included a reform of the tax code led to economic prosperity. By the middle of 2006, most Democrats began to see the  potential reelection of John McCain as inevitable.

McCain Approval Rating:

A: 85%
D: 15%

The Midterm Elections:

The Republicans regained control of the House and Senate in record numbers similar to the Republican Revolution of 1994.

McCain Approval Rating:

A: 60%
D: 39%

Following the Midterm election Former Senator John Edwards announced he would be a candidate for President in 2008. Most pundits speculated his candidacy was a long shot as most anticipated that Hillary Clinton would run and be the nominee.


When asked Sen. Hillary Clinton remained mum and said, "I will be making a decision in the near future."

In a head-to-head match up against John McCain.

McCain: 50%
Clinton: 37%

[tmthforu94]

Go McCain!

[Niemeyerite]

Go Obama!

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

DEAN!

[NHI]

As 2007 went on other Democratic candidates started to emerge: Howard Dean, John Kerry and Dennis Kuchinich. While the field started to take shape the one person people kept waiting for was Hillary Clinton.

Meanwhile, John McCain signaled a sign of victory as he watched the stock market produced extraordinary results, coupled with the passage of the McCain proposal to to stop the outsourcing of American Jobs.

"I want Made in American to mean something again my friend."

However as the summer months began to tick away Hillary Clinton continued to give no inclination on running for President, as did President McCain. He announced to a group of reporters in July that he had not made any decision on running for reelection in 2008.

With McCain's hesitation pundits began to speculate that McCain would not be running for reelection.

Match ups:

McCain vs. Clinton:

R: 50%
D: 39%

McCain vs. Dean:

R: 54%
D: 37%

McCain vs. Kerry:

R: 50%
D: 38%

As July winded down the Democratic field got a shock as one term senator Barack Obama announced his campaign for President of the United States.


"We need change America, and I'm hoping to be your candidate."

[NHI]

Match up:

John McCain vs. Barack Obama:

R: 50%
D: 36%

In Barack Obama's campaign announcement he announced an end to the US' involvement in Afghanistan. According to public opinion polls the American public were mixed on the US' continued involvement in Afghanistan.

As the summer went by the Democratic Field began to take strength and hone its message on John McCain who had yet to announce his reelection campaign. At the end of July President McCain announced that by the summer of 2008 there would be a drawdown of American troops in Afghanistan, with all troops out by the end of his term in office.



McCain also revealed he would have decision on his reelection by Labor Day, which sparked speculation that he would not be speaking reelection.

At the start of August, after emailing her staff and supporter, then by making a public statement Sen. Hillary Clinton announced she would not be a candidate for President in 2008.



Clinton's decision not to seek the Democratic Nomination threw the primary race up into the air, with candidates like Kerry, Dean and Obama scrambling to reach the top. As Labor Day neared most pundits speculated that the top tier candidates were:

John Kerry
Howard Dean
Barack Obama

Throughout the summer Republican insiders were growing antsy with President McCain not making any decision on reelection. Speculation inside the beltway was that George W. Bush was preparing a possible campaign in the event McCain did not run, as was Elizabeth Dole.

However President McCain put to rest speculation on Labor Day as promised, as he announced in New Hampshire that he would be seeking reelection, because he was not done with the agenda the American people sent him to complete.


"We never hide from history my friends, we make history!"

However the surprise revelation was not that McCain was seeking reelection, but that Vice-President Judd Gregg would not be running for a second term with him. He announced that his new selection would be made by the time of the convention.

On the Democratic Side:

Kerry: 33%
Dean: 29%
Obama: 15%
Undecided: 12%
Edwards: 11%

One year from the election a new poll indicated the chances of the Democratic Candidates against President McCain:

McCain vs. Kerry:

R: 50%
D: 39%

McCain vs. Dean:

R: 50%
D: 38%

McCain vs. Obama:

R: 50%
D: 40%

Another poll on McCain's approval ratings:

A: 59%
D: 41%

Should President McCain be reelected?

Y: 54%
N: 40%
U:  6%

Dark Red: Strong McCain
Light Red: Lean McCain
Dark Blue: Strong Democrat
Light Blue: Lean Democrat
Gray: Tossup

By Christmas the Iowa Caucus had two candidates in a dead heat.

Dean: 29%
Obama: 28%
Kerry: 20%
Edwards: 15%
Other: 8%



Iowa Caucus Results:



Sen. Barack Obama stunned the world as he won the Iowa Caucus by a stunning margin.

Obama: 35%
Dean: 30%
Kerry: 22%

In a head to head matchup against President McCain vs. Sen. Obama:

R: 49%
D: 40%

[Niemeyerite]

Go Obama!

[NHI]

New Hampshire Primary:

In a surprise twist Hillary Clinton announced her support of Barack Obama in New Hampshire, stating that he is the candidate.


NH:

Obama: 39%
Dean: 29%

[Niemeyerite]

Go Obama!

[NHI]

A stunning new poll showed Sen. Obama's chances were approving against President McCain:

R: 48%
D: 42%

The New Hampshire Primary:

Barack Obama pulled out an even larger win in NH. The results forced Edwards and Kerry from the race, leaving only Dean to challenge Obama.




Obama: 43%
Dean: 22%
Kerry: 18%
Edwards:13%
Other: 4%



As the Democrats headed into South Carolina John Kerry announced his support of Obama's, and joined others in saying that it was time for Dean to drop out of the race.

South Carolina:

Obama: 51%
Dean: 44%
Other: 5%



Following South Carolina Dean dropped out and announced his support for Obama. Many Democrats speculated that Dean was lining up for the VP spot. Now the presumptive nominee Obama began to hone his message to attack President McCain.

McCain vs. Obama:

R: 47%
D: 43%

The Conventions:

John McCain went into his convention with his approval ratings still intact, and strong lead in the polls. He  revealed in an announcement before a crowd in St. Paul who his VP nominee would be:

In a pick that stunned everyone President McCain chose Sec. of Health and Human Services: Mitt Romney.



While some conservatives were a little weary on the Romney pick, all fears were dashed when Romney delivered his acceptance speech.


"The Democrats want to reverse all we've accomplished. They want to weaken our economy, weaken our defense and weaken the United States of America, and my friends we're not going to let the Democrats and Barack Obama do it."


McCain at the convention.

Following the GOP convention McCain went into the general election with a large lead over Obama.

R: 51%
D: 42%

However as the convention wrapped up Sen. Obama announced his pick for Vice President, and it was a pick that shocked the political world.

[Niemeyerite]

Great picks! McCain will have some problems with the conservative base, however.

[NHI]

The Financial Collapses happens as in real life.



The Debates:

On the first Presidential Debate Sen. Obama attacked President McCain on low job growth, and a weakening economy. McCain rebuffed the charge and said the country was experiencing was small bump.



The first debate which McCain originally seemed to have locked up ended in an Obama victory and the first poll came out indicating his chances were improving.

Obama vs. McCain:

D: 47%
R: 44%



The first and only Vice Presidential Debate proved to be a draw. Romney sited his experience in the private sector to help McCain in getting the economy going. Hillary rebuffed the charge stating that, "You are only continuing the failed policies that have gotten us into this mess."

Who won the debate: Hillary Clinton or Mitt Romney?

Clinton: 49%
Romney: 49%
Both: 1%
Neither: 1%

As the campaign season wore President McCain's approval continued to decline as the economic matters worsened by the day.

President McCain Approval Rating:
A: 41%
D: 54%

Who do you trust to deal with the economy: President McCain or Sen. Obama?

McCain: 39%
Obama: 50%
Unsure: 11%


The second debate which was in a town hall setting seemed to favor McCain, but Sen. Obama continued to press the President hard on the worsening economic conditions.

McCain: My friends certainly these are tough times but we'll get through them. We're America.

Obama: I agree with the President, we will get through them, but not with the same policies that have gotten us into this situation. It is time for new ideas, a new direction and new economic policies in the White House.

Matchup: Obama vs. McCain:

Obama: 49%
McCain: 46%

The final debate proved to be an Obama win as he managed to hit President McCain hard on the economy. He tried to rebuff the attacks, but to little avail. Obama went into election with a significant enough lead that the McCain campaign had serious doubts

McCain vs. Obama:

D: 50%
R: 45%

Good evening America, what an election this has been thus far and we come down to this night. Election night. We we will see if President McCain manages to pull the upset he's hoping for, or if Sen. Barack Obama goes onto win it all.

First tonight of the six states that have closed: We project that President McCain has carried Kentucky and South Carolina as expected. We can project Vermont for Sen. Obama.

This puts the President with an early lead, but we are unable to project winners in three key states: Indiana, Georgia and Virginia.

McCain: 16
Obama: 3

7:30

McCain: 21
Obama:  3

[NHI]

8:00

We're back and we have some projections to make: For Sen. Obama we project that he will carry:

Connecticut
Maryland
Delaware
Massachusetts
New Jersey
Maine
Illinois
D.C.

For President McCain:
Alabama
Mississippi
Missouri
Oklahoma
Tennessee

We also project that Sen. Obama has carried the keystone state of Pennsylvania.
D: 52%
R: 46%

This is a major blow the McCain campaign, given that he carried it four years ago. Certainly with is being called this early it has to be making the McCain campaign nervous.

D: 99
R: 65

We do have another projection to make that will make the McCain campaign somewhat happy. President McCain has carried the state of New Hampshire.

R: 50%
D: 46%

This is certainly going to be an interesting night and we'll have much more to come. Stay tuned.

D: 99
R: 69

[Niemeyerite]

*tuned*

[NHI]

We're back and the polls have just closed in Arkansas and we are unable to declare a winner in that state. Sen. Clinton as you know lived in the states until her husband Bill Clinton became President. This state was expected to go for McCain, but right now it is too close to call.

Looking at the map Sen. Obama leads the President 99 to 69 in the electoral count. Wait, we can't project now that President McCain will carry the state of Indiana.

R: 49.6%
D: 47.8%

Looking at some of the other states in question now: In Ohio Sen. Obama holds a narrow lead over President McCain.

D: 50.0%
R: 49.4%

In Virginia Sen. Obama seems to be expanding his lead:

D: 51.6%
R: 47.0%

North Carolina the President seems to have a the advantage, but his lead in waning.

R: 49.6%
D: 49.4%

Georgia, Sen. Obama holds a narrow lead over President McCan.

D: 49.0%
R: 48.8%

Florida the two candidates are nearly even:

D: 50.0%
R: 49.6%

We can now project a winner in Arkansas, President McCain will carry it tonight.

D: 99
R: 86

9:00

The largest chunk of delegates are up for grabs at this hour. We are ready to declare winners in the following states:

Sen. Obama:

Minnesota
Wisconsin
New York
Michigan
New Mexico
Rhode Island

and certainly the big one is the state of Colorado. It was the site of the Democratic Convention, Obama was leading narrowly in the polls, but tonight it has gone for the Senator.

For President McCain:

Louisiana
Kansas
Wyoming
Texas
South Dakota
Nebraska
Arizona

D: 185
R: 156

It is still Sen. Obama with a lead tonight, but McCain seems to be catching up. For him to win he's going to need to carry Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Georgia to remain relevant.

We do have a major projection to make: Sen. Obama has carried the state of Ohio. Repeat, Sen. Obama has carried the state of Ohio.

D: 50.9%
R: 47.1%

D: 205
R: 156


The Ohio win has to be a blow to the McCain campaign and surely is a strong indicator tomorrow. However we can project President McCain the winner in the state of Georgia.

10:00

Four states' polls have closed and we can declare Sen. Obama the winner in Iowa. Nevada and Montana remain too close to call, but Utah as expected goes for McCain.

Hold up we do have another projection to make. Sen Obama has carried the state of Florida. This is the third straight election it has gone for the Democrats and Obama continues the tradition tonight.

D: 239
R: 176

Sen. Obama is drawing closer to the number of 270. President McCain's campaign is certainly growing weary now as it appears time is not on their side and frankly he needs a miracle tonight.

We're now going to take a short break, but hold on we have a projection to make. Sen Obama has carried the state of Virginia.

D: 252
R: 176


Stay tuned.

[Niemeyerite]

Excellent!! I'd like to see percentages from every state. however.
Interesting the election is more or less the same it was in RL, but politics were reallly different the years before 2008 in your TL

[NHI]

States results coming soon.

[NHI]

Key States Results:

Ohio:
Obama: 50.9%
McCain: 48.2%

Pennsylvania:
Obama: 52.7%
McCain: 46.3%

New Hampshire:
McCain: 50.4%
Obama: 48.5%

North Carolina:
Obama: 49.5%
McCain: 49.0%

Georgia:
McCain: 49.6%
Obama: 48.3%

Montana:
Obama: 49.4%
McCain: 49.2%

Virginia:
Obama: 51.0%
McCain: 47.4%

Florida:
Obama: 51.9%
McCain: 47.2%

New Mexico:
Obama: 52.6%
McCain: 45.3%

Arkansas:
McCain: 53.9%
Obama: 45.0%

Nevada:
Obama: 52.0%
McCain: 45.6%