Does Barack Obama really oppose gay marriage

[anvi]

No idea what he really believes about gay marriage.  But I've got some good guesses about what he and those around him think of the electoral map.  If he says nothing overt about gay marriage, he won't lose New York.  If his says something overt about it, it could become a wedge in other states he wants to hold onto. 

[anvi]

Corrected. If we were talking about it being remotely that one sided he would've come out in favor of gay marriage long ago.

^^^^^^^^^^^This.

Obama's instinct at the moment is that it will be a close race, and I'd bet that's right.  No politician up for reelection and facing a close race is going to take a strong position on an issue that 1.) no offense to anyone, is not the most important issue facing the whole country in the coming election, 2.) is as a matter of policy not decided by the president anyway, but by the states, and 3.) is a serious social hot-button and only polls favorably within a margin.  I'm not saying any of this because I think the issue is unimportant; I do think it's an equality issue and I fully support gay marriage.  But that's easy for me, and all of us, to say.  How many people on this forum, honestly, would otherwise vote for Obama in '12 but will decide not to vote for him only because he didn't explicitly advocate gay marriage?  How may people who otherwise wouldn't have voted for Obama would in '12 change their minds and vote for him only if he did explicitly advocate gay marriage?  If you can answer "me, I would" to either of these questions, than I'd say at least you have the right to call Obama a liar and a coward.  The rest of us really don't, and it's precisely us that justify his decision to deal with the issue in the way he is.

[anvi]

I don't know.  

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/08/22/weekinreview/22gay-chart.html

Here is where support for gay marriage sits in all of the states mentioned as otherwise-wins for Obama:

Minnesota               47%
Wisconsin               44%
Michigan                 46%
Pennsylvania          51%
New Hampshire      55%
New Mexico            49%
Colorado                 52%

This might at first glance look like safe territory, but the issue only polls above 50 and outside the margin in one state, and that's the one with the fewest EVs.

It's also worth noting that in other important swing states, this issue doesn't poll well at all.  In North Carolina it's at 36%, Missouri 37%, Florida 41%, Virginia 42% and Iowa 44%.

[anvi]

While it's a split issue, I don't think it's truly influential for most of the people that give an answer--yes or no--on their vote.

Well, perhaps.  I guess my thinking is that Obama giving forthright advocacy won't either win or lose him votes, and the goal is to win votes, so what is the motivation, beyond principle of course, for him to get off the dime if that's what he wanted to do?  Maybe unambiguous advocacy now might galvanize some otherwise lukewarm liberal turnout, but it might easily galvanize already energized conservative turnout in swing states more.  I know it's not 2004 anymore, but 2004 isn't Flintstone-era ancient history for Democrats, many still believe the issue cost them Ohio in the 2004 general.  And even without that, it's pretty hard to get any politician to jump headlong into a no-win issue with so many other difficult things on the table.  If it were me, to be honest, I think I'd wait till I got re-elected to give full and unambiguous support.  Maybe that makes me as much of a slug as everyone here thinks Obama is.  But sometimes the old saw "discretion is the better part of valor" is true.

[anvi]

It is an ugly sentiment, yes.

[anvi]

On the other hand, maybe a social wedge issue is just the distraction Obama needs in 2012 to shift the discussion away from the economy...

In that case, he would have to make sure it was a wedge that broke for him in the right places, not one that split or went against him where he needed votes.  But wedge issues don't tend to work well with high unemployment, or even in just a generally sluggish economy.  I remember Bush 41 raised lots of wedge issues against Clinton in '92 that might have worked in 2000, but that year, they all flopped.