Does Barack Obama really oppose gay marriage

[King]

Of course not.  He's faux moderate like most first term Presidents.

[King]

No. And if he wanted to make me enthusiastically support him again in 2012, not being a pansy and just openly supporting it would be a pretty easy way for him to do so.

You know, if someone like the President showed real leadership on this issue, it might actually have a boost in the polls and drive home swing voters on these propositions.

Too bad.

[King]

I don't know.  

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/08/22/weekinreview/22gay-chart.html

Here is where support for gay marriage sits in all of the states mentioned as otherwise-wins for Obama:

Minnesota               47%
Wisconsin               44%
Michigan                 46%
Pennsylvania          51%
New Hampshire      55%
New Mexico            49%
Colorado                 52%

This might at first glance look like safe territory, but the issue only polls above 50 and outside the margin in one state, and that's the one with the fewest EVs.

It's also worth noting that in other important swing states, this issue doesn't poll well at all.  In North Carolina it's at 36%, Missouri 37%, Florida 41%, Virginia 42% and Iowa 44%.

While it's a split issue, I don't think it's truly influential for most of the people that give an answer--yes or no--on their vote.