NM-PPP: Democrats have modest edge

[Miles]

Toplines:

Heinrich- 47%
Wilson- 42%

Heinrich- 45%
Sanchez- 39%

Heinrich- 46%
Sowards- 34%

Balderas- 45%
Wilson- 39%

Balderas- 39%
Sanchez- 35%

Balderas- 42%
Sowards- 28%

Favorables:

Wilson- 38/45
Heinrich- 36/32
Sanchez- 23/28
Balderas- 22/17
Sowards- 7/17


Who did you vote for President in 2008?
Obama- 53%
McCain- 37%


http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/06/dems-start-out-with-modest-lead-in-nm.html

[Niemeyerite]

so, Sanchez is a better candidate against Balderas, but Wilson is better against Heinrich??? That's surprising. It may be because a majority of independents are latinos. I don't know.

[TheGlobalizer]

so, Sanchez is a better candidate against Balderas, but Wilson is better against Heinrich??? That's surprising. It may be because a majority of independents are latinos. I don't know.

There's a noticeable latino affinity effect in NM.  I'd say the Sanchez preference is based almost solely on his being Lt. Gov., he's really a lousy candidate and a clear career-advancer (he was JUST elected Lt. Gov.)  Balderas is mostly unknown at this point, but seems to have a positive rep thus far.  Heinrich and Wilson are known quantities; Heinrich plays well to a Dem base but won't fly in the outlying white conservative areas, Wilson is more of a centrist that has some connection to the Bush era and has some of that stink on her.  Wilson has a built-in advantage in ABQ, though, and if she can shake the Bush memories she could do damage in the in-play ABQ metro areas (Northeast Heights, Rio Rancho, maybe North Valley).  The rest of the state probably plays to type, unless Susana Martinez can bring some coattails to the Las Cruces area (doubtful it would be enough, but maybe).

I suspect the Dems would do better to nominate Balderas but they won't.  I think Wilson can close the gap with Heinrich once the general election campaign is underway, but I see Balderas as a young, fresh latino face and would expect him to hold her off in a general election (barring a gaffe).

It will be interesting to see how the fires are handled, emergency response can be influential in favorability ratings.  Thus far, Susana seems to be taking the right tack, sticking to the Tea Party-style philosophy but being pragmatic in its application.  That may change if the fires reach Los Alamos, however.  Lots of discussion right now about the sale of fireworks for July 4, too; if they start a bunch of fires, there will be hell to pay, by someone, politically.

And, of course, national politics re: immigration will bleed onto this Senate race.  Hopefully the GOP candidate doesn't take the absolutist position that some Republicans took on the driver's license debate this legislative session, it really played poorly and undermined the effort.

Side note, it's a shame that the NM GOP doesn't have a better bench.  Not surprising, though, when their webpage still lists Bill Richardson as governor.    The party is currently still a bit too white (non-hispanic) for NM.

[TheGlobalizer]

Interesting other thought -- the poll shows 10% of voters selecting "Other/Not Sure" for the 2008 Presidential vote.  The raw ratio otherwise mostly tracks with 2008 (Obama up 53/37 in the poll, 57/42 in 2008) but I wonder if the "Not Sure" could be overloaded with Obama voters with buyer's remorse.

That analysis may be optimistic, but with a relatively well-received Tea Party latino Republican as governor, this seat strikes me as being quite in play.  Even the raw numbers here are probably worse than the Dems were expecting/hoping for given Obama's NM blowout in 2008.

[Miles]

That analysis may be optimistic, but with a relatively well-received Tea Party latino Republican as governor, this seat strikes me as being quite in play.  Even the raw numbers here are probably worse than the Dems were expecting/hoping for given Obama's NM blowout in 2008.

Yes, but I think if Democrats lose this seat, they'll definitely have a rough night nationwide. A win here would probably be the icing on the cake for Republicans.

PPP should have Martiniez's numbers out in a few days.

[King]

Heinrich-Wilson is the only chance for the Republicans to win.  They both have love 'em or hate 'em personalities.  Against someone non-threatening like Balderas, someone like Wilson would lose handily.  Enough people don't like Heinrich that it would cancel out Wilson's negative appeal.  Despite this, I support Heinrich over Balderas as I think he would be a better Senator and would eventually win out over Wilson in the end.

Despite being a heartbeat from Governor, Sanchez is completely unelectable and this here is likely his peak.  Only himself and people outside of New Mexico thinks it's a good idea to nominate him.

Greg Sowards is the Tea Party candidate without a doubt.  However, Teabaggery wasn't really popular among New Mexico Republicans in the 2010 cycle and likely won't be in 2012. 

[Miles]

Greg Sowards is the Tea Party candidate without a doubt.  However, Teabaggery wasn't really popular among New Mexico Republicans in the 2010 cycle and likely won't be in 2012. 

Really? The first time I saw Susana Martinez was when Palin was endorsing her.

[King]

Greg Sowards is the Tea Party candidate without a doubt.  However, Teabaggery wasn't really popular among New Mexico Republicans in the 2010 cycle and likely won't be in 2012. 

Really? The first time I saw Susana Martinez was when Palin was endorsing her.

It was a formality endorsement for Palin to pad her W-L record.  She was already leading all the polls in the GOP primary before it happened.

[TheGlobalizer]

Greg Sowards is the Tea Party candidate without a doubt.  However, Teabaggery wasn't really popular among New Mexico Republicans in the 2010 cycle and likely won't be in 2012. 

Really? The first time I saw Susana Martinez was when Palin was endorsing her.

Yeah, she's more just a strong and spunky conservative woman, and at times, a pragmatist.  The extremist nutty Tea Party stuff doesn't fly at all here, except maybe in isolated parts of NM-3.  Conservative radio here routinely mocks the wingnuts and skews center-right (an important GOP demographic in NM is the right-leaning parts of ABQ).

Heinrich-Wilson is the only chance for the Republicans to win.  They both have love 'em or hate 'em personalities.  Against someone non-threatening like Balderas, someone like Wilson would lose handily.  Enough people don't like Heinrich that it would cancel out Wilson's negative appeal.  Despite this, I support Heinrich over Balderas as I think he would be a better Senator and would eventually win out over Wilson in the end.

Despite being a heartbeat from Governor, Sanchez is completely unelectable and this here is likely his peak.  Only himself and people outside of New Mexico thinks it's a good idea to nominate him.

Greg Sowards is the Tea Party candidate without a doubt.  However, Teabaggery wasn't really popular among New Mexico Republicans in the 2010 cycle and likely won't be in 2012.  

Agree with all of this, based on my 6 months living here thus far.  (To be fair to myself, though, my job requires me to keep an eye on the NM political scene and legislative activities, so I see more than most.)  Sanchez is comedy hour and Sowards is a niche candidate.  Wilson is the only real candidate, but that doesn't mean she'll win the nomination, unfortunately.  Good thing she seems to have Susana's unstated support (Sanchez sure doesn't).

I'd put my money on Heinrich to win the primary, NM pols seem to ascend pretty linearly.  Balderas is, mostly, raising his profile, IMO.

[Joe Republic]

How on earth did NM Republicans nominate a ticket named Martinez-Sanchez??

[King]

How on earth did NM Republicans nominate a ticket named Martinez-Sanchez??

A free-for-all primary system where there are 7-8 candidates running and 25% wins it with no runoff, of course.

[DrScholl]

The best numbers for the Republicans are 39% and 42%, that's a poor showing. 2010 is over, Martinez's election isn't any indicator of how the Senate race will go.

[Miles]

The best numbers for the Republicans are 39% and 42%, that's a poor showing. 2010 is over, Martinez's election isn't any indicator of how the Senate race will go.

Still, I think the Democrats under performed a bit in this poll.

From what I gather, Martinez's election wasn't an good reflection of the state's electorate. It was more to do with the personal unpopularity of Richardson and Denish's bad campaign.

In 2010, Democrats (with the exception of Denish and Herrera) did pretty well there statewide.

[King]

From what I gather, Martinez's election wasn't an good reflection of the state's electorate. It was more to do with the personal unpopularity of Richardson and Denish's bad campaign.

This is true.  Democrats not only held the state legislature, but they also won every other statewide race (AG, Treasurer, etc., etc.) except for Secretary of State and that too was because the Dem candidate in that race should probably be in jail right now.

Martinez got decent support from Democrats, but they're still Democrats.

[Miles]

From what I gather, Martinez's election wasn't an good reflection of the state's electorate. It was more to do with the personal unpopularity of Richardson and Denish's bad campaign.

This is true.  Democrats not only held the state legislature, but they also won every other statewide race (AG, Treasurer, etc., etc.) except for Secretary of State and that too was because the Dem candidate in that race should probably be in jail right now.

Martinez got decent support from Democrats, but they're still Democrats.

What exactly happened with Herrera? I know she was in trouble, but I couldn't find much info on her.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Heinrich and Wilson lead their respective primaries:

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