If Bachmann gets IA and Romney gets NH, what happens?
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  If Bachmann gets IA and Romney gets NH, what happens?
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Author Topic: If Bachmann gets IA and Romney gets NH, what happens?  (Read 1928 times)
Jacobtm
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« on: June 29, 2011, 04:03:43 PM »
« edited: June 29, 2011, 04:06:55 PM by Jacobtm »

Imagining that Bachmann wins IA, and Romney then wins NH.

What goes down in NV and SC?
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #1 on: June 29, 2011, 04:05:41 PM »

Bachmann or someone else (Perry?) gets SC, Romney wins NV and probably FL, wins the nomination in April or May.
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Jacobtm
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« Reply #2 on: June 29, 2011, 04:07:07 PM »

Could Romney get SC?
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Atlas Has Shrugged
ChairmanSanchez
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« Reply #3 on: June 29, 2011, 04:07:48 PM »

The race draws down between Romney and Bachmann, with Paul (who might win a small primary or causcus, like Montana) and Cain holding out for a while. Romney wins Nevada, and Florida, and Bachmann takes SC.
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Jacobtm
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« Reply #4 on: June 29, 2011, 04:13:23 PM »

Paul isn't going to win any primaries.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #5 on: June 29, 2011, 04:17:21 PM »

Paul isn't going to win any primaries.

He won't. However, he could win a later, low-turnout caucus in the West.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #6 on: June 29, 2011, 04:33:01 PM »

Yes. Most recent polling puts him on top. Palin or Perry in, and his chances get better.
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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #7 on: June 29, 2011, 04:58:16 PM »

I think you have to look at a top 3.  Winners are important but momentum matters, too.  Romney is so far ahead now that a close call in NH would be a minor disaster.  Huntsman placing or showing would put NV into play for him.  #2 or #3 in IA could do damage in SC if they're a traditional southern conservative type.

Just on the topline, though, I think Hawk's right:

IA: Bachmann
NH: Romney
SC: Bachmann
NV: Romney
FL: Romney
OmnomnomRomney.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #8 on: June 29, 2011, 05:04:46 PM »

Paul isn't going to win any primaries.

He won't. However, he could win a later, low-turnout caucus in the West.
Montana comes to mind.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #9 on: June 29, 2011, 05:05:36 PM »

I think Huntsman has a chance to do well in Florida because he's doing the Presidency 5 debate sponsored by the Republican Party of Florida, whereas Romney decided not to.

Plus Huntsman is basing his campaign from Orlando.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #10 on: June 29, 2011, 05:07:42 PM »

What if Huntsman or Perry managed to win SC and NV, or FL?
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #11 on: June 29, 2011, 06:26:44 PM »

In such case, we may easily have a repeat of 2008 Democratic primaries (just Bachmann v. Romney).
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #12 on: June 29, 2011, 06:27:46 PM »

What if Huntsman or Perry managed to win SC and NV, or FL?

Cthulhu will awaken from his slumber and destroy the Earth, so it won't matter.
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Lulz
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« Reply #13 on: June 30, 2011, 01:10:15 AM »

Imagining that Bachmann wins IA, and Romney then wins NH.

What goes down in NV and SC?

Doesn't matter.  Unless something bizarre (other than magic long johns) happens in the Romney camp he wins the nomination.  Slice it dice it any way you want.  The inevitable conclusion is Romney is the nominee.  Huntsman is the ONLY sane horse in the Republican field and he'll never poll above the single digits.
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King
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« Reply #14 on: June 30, 2011, 01:38:04 AM »

(1) A divisive moderate-conservative primary between Bachmann and Romney similar to Obama and Clinton in 2008.

RESULTS IN

(2) Romney winning a plurality of delegates

BUT

(3) The GOP does not have a superdelegate system

SO

(4) Ron Paul, who finishes third by never dropping out and picking up 5% of the delegates in early proportionate primaries as well as in caucuses has brokerage power.

LEADING TO

(5) A 1968/72 Dems style riot of a convention

ENDING WITH

(6) Bachmann/Paul 2012.  No Romney endorsement.

IN OTHER WORDS

(7) Lulz


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The Mikado
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« Reply #15 on: June 30, 2011, 01:39:35 AM »


The new poster above you gets the nomination? Huh
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dwkulcsar
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« Reply #16 on: June 30, 2011, 01:57:52 AM »

Romney (or any GOP moderate) has a chance at winning pluralities in early states. Romney is leading in SC but this is only a plurality lead as the southern vote is split between Gingrich/Cain and the social conservative vote is split between Palin/Bachmann and the unknown vote is up for grabs for Pawlenty/Santorum
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Lulz
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« Reply #17 on: June 30, 2011, 02:22:49 AM »

(1) A divisive moderate-conservative primary between Bachmann and Romney similar to Obama and Clinton in 2008.

RESULTS IN

(2) Romney winning a plurality of delegates

BUT

(3) The GOP does not have a superdelegate system

SO

(4) Ron Paul, who finishes third by never dropping out and picking up 5% of the delegates in early proportionate primaries as well as in caucuses has brokerage power.

LEADING TO

(5) A 1968/72 Dems style riot of a convention

ENDING WITH

(6) Bachmann/Paul 2012.  No Romney endorsement.

IN OTHER WORDS

(7) Lulz



I'm shocked.  I don't know what to say.  I don't really have a speech prepared.  This is so surprising for a host of reasons, not the least of which is I'm a registered Democrat.

-Lulz
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #18 on: June 30, 2011, 05:34:27 AM »


wasn't Lulz number (7)?!?!
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izixs
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« Reply #19 on: June 30, 2011, 05:58:53 AM »


The past has been altered but events since then have not! The timeline is on the verge of collapse!

I mean...

In the scenario, Romney is already at an advantage as the narrative is forming that Iowa's republicans are hard core religious conservative types (I grew up there, that seems to be the case form those I've run across on the average) and so a win in Iowa by anyone who isn't cast as the moderate in the race can be painted as unelectable in the general. So at the worst, Bachmann's win in Iowa could be a wash for her overall chances and on its own doesn't help Romney, but Romney winning NH would be a win for him as it would be a fools errand to try to cast the electorate of NH republicans as to moderate. It would basically mean they loose the state in the general as its a combination of being partially true which will also miff the republicans in NH and the fact that a large fraction of those who will be voting in the republican primary here will be indies. And they don't much like being painted as not mattering to a party when they bothered to show up to vote in that party's primary.

On the other hand, if the narrative about Iowa changes or Romney falls way behind there to not be in the top group, then its a setup similar to 2008. The question is, which party is the parallel?

There's also the matter of timing. If NV and SC are on the same day then SC gets the news no matter who wins, but if NV comes even a couple days ahead of time, a state that barring surprises to this scenario should be an easy win for Romney which can put him in a very strong position in SC. With at least a couple wins under his belt and Bachman with just one, the hard right folks might be looking for alternatives to Bachmann if there's any in the running (Cain perhaps or Pawlenty if he becomes more interesting to anyone and runs to the right). A split like that can let Romney win the moderate + we want someone who can win vote and take SC and then later states.

This suggests a strong lean towards Romney for the ultimate success story here. But if Bachmann's win in Iowa is strong enough to have most the circus leave and its down to two front runners (plus Paul and the 'who's that guy?' crowd), then Bachmann can take SC and Romney needs a big win in later contests. But to figure the situation there kind of needs the primary schedule to stop changing, which won't be done until its almost time to start.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #20 on: June 30, 2011, 12:11:24 PM »

 
Imagining that Bachmann wins IA, and Romney then wins NH.

What goes down in NV and SC?

Doesn't matter.  Unless something bizarre (other than magic long johns) happens in the Romney camp he wins the nomination.  Slice it dice it any way you want.  The inevitable conclusion is Romney is the nominee.  Huntsman is the ONLY sane horse in the Republican field and he'll never poll above the single digits.

I think being sane might actually be a disadvantage in the Republican primary.  I bet Bachmann will win in this scenario.
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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #21 on: June 30, 2011, 12:12:22 PM »

ENDING WITH

(6) Bachmann/Paul 2012.  No Romney endorsement.

IN OTHER WORDS

(7) Lulz

THEREAFTER...

( 8 ) Ron spends the first term posterizing Bachmann over and over and over again

LEADING TO THE UNTHINKABLE

(9) Ron Paul primaries Michelle Bachmann in 2016

WHICH WOULD BE

(10) teh awsomez!!1
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King
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« Reply #22 on: June 30, 2011, 06:13:41 PM »


I broke up (5) into two pieces as soon as I posted, but Mikado was sneaky fast in his retort.
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