Will Obama get more than 71.85% in Hawaii?

[Joe Republic]

Thus beating his 2008 result?

[Simfan34]

No, he had "home-boy" advantage in a Democrat year. With a sagging economy it's hard to see how he could do better.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

No, but he will get over 60%, most likely.

[dwkulcsar]

I think he could, I'm certain if someone who questioned his birth is on the GOP ticket (I can see a birther/tea party type as the VP); this would maybe increase his margin. I say this because Hawaii is majority minority state and some rhetoric that came from Tea Party types inferred that Hawaii is not part of America (the Palin kind of America).

As well as there will be a notable amount of attention in the Senate and House races that rarely seem to be of any interest.

[Boris]

I might be the only vaguely intelligent person responding to this thread (such is the reality of the 2012 forum), but incumbent effect, no?

So, in my infinite wisdom, I'm gonna state that Obama does better in HI relative to the 2012 national average than he did in HI in 2008 relative to the 2008 national average.

[Gustaf]

I might be the only vaguely intelligent person responding to this thread (such is the reality of the 2012 forum), but incumbent effect, no?

So, in my infinite wisdom, I'm gonna state that Obama does better in HI relative to the 2012 national average than he did in HI in 2008 relative to the 2008 national average.

I'm inclined to agree with all of the above.

[izixs]

I'll go with Boris on this as a basis. There might even be an added effect of dissuasion to those who would be inclined to vote Republican for president there in 2012 to not even show up unless they got hot about a lower ballot race. The perception being: given Obama passed the 70% mark, it would effectively take a miracle for him to loose the state in 2012. So why bother? The hard core types will still show up, but the casual conservative has TV to watch or work to go to.

Such a malaise might be countered of course by an active campaign down ballot or an insane move by the Republican nominee to campaign heavily there. If its the latter, Obama is either down massively country wide and the Republicans are trying to destroy him everywhere with Hawaii being the last hold out Obama state beyond DC (unlikely given current trends), or the Republican nominee has realized they're going to loose and is trying to do damage control and thus spending money everywhere to keep the Republican brand viable for a later election.

[TheGlobalizer]

Upper 60s.  No one will care, everyone will be asleep.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

HI has an incumbancy bias, so it's possible.

[WalterMitty]

lean bachmann.

solid paul.

obviously.

[© tweed]

a very quick glimpse at the past few cycles' results leads me to believe that the "incumbent effect" as regards HI cannot be statistically proven.

[Misoir]

Obama would not get below 67% without it being a horrible election for him. Basically 69-74% is what I would expect.

[Joe Republic]

a very quick glimpse at the past few cycles' results leads me to believe that the "incumbent effect" as regards HI cannot be statistically proven.

Not proven perhaps, but every presidential election featuring an incumbent president (except 1976) saw Hawaii trend (often heavily) in favor of the incumbent.