Here's where I'd start the 2012 map at

[Devils30]

[sentinel]

I'd put  Nevada as a toss-up, Minnesotta as hard Dem, Virginia lean Dem, Indiana hard Republican and Iowa as lean Dem...but pretty decent

[foodgellas]

Sorry to ask a seemingly dumb question, but how do you make predictions for 2012? When I click on the "predict" link at the top, I only see old elections and the 2011 governorship races.

[specific_name]

Rough generic map:

Dark is likely, light is lean. With a poor GOP nominee the tosses move to lean Dem and most of the leans move to toss, likelies like IN and MT would go lean R. If the GOP nominee is Romney and the economy stays bad, the lean D's move to toss and the Midwestern liklies go lean R.

Weak GOP nom:

Strong GOP nom:

[sentinel]

Sorry to ask a seemingly dumb question, but how do you make predictions for 2012? When I click on the "predict" link at the top, I only see old elections and the 2011 governorship races.

They're doing it on the Electoral Vote Calculator (click on EVC). The "predict" thing only works when predicting is open and it isn't right now

[Mehmentum]

Obama would start with 227 EVs against with the Republican at 180.  Obama has a sizable but not overwhelming advantage.  

Of course with a weaker challenger (Perry, Bachmann, Cain, maybe Pawlenty), many of those light blue states could flip, this map just shows the range of possibilities.  

[Devils30]

Obama won 55% in NV in 2008 so I would put that as lean D. That's a higher number than he won in PA, NH, CO, VA, MN, IA as well.

[Kevin]

Baby blue is slight Republican advantage but easily subject to change. Light blue is possible Republican tossup which Dems could win if there is a Republican collapse in 2012, however Republicans have a strong advantage here. Regular and dark blue are solid Republican.

Likewise, pink is slight Democratic which could change. Light Red is strong Democratic advantage but these flipping to the Republican's under the right circumstances is quite possible. While regular and dark red are solid Democratic.

Grey is tossup.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Not doing the "very slight lean" thing. This far out, it seems pretty pointless.

[Mehmentum]

Obama won 55% in NV in 2008 so I would put that as lean D. That's a higher number than he won in PA, NH, CO, VA, MN, IA as well.

All of those states I have as tossups, so I'm fine. ; )

[tmthforu94]

Obama won 55% in NV in 2008 so I would put that as lean D. That's a higher number than he won in PA, NH, CO, VA, MN, IA as well.

So? State's can do huge swings from election to election.  Indiana voted 60% for Bush, then 4 years later voted for Obama. Obama's had miserable approvals in Nevada and I remember him making a comment a while back many Nevadans took offense to about Las Vegas. Plus, add a strong opponent like Romney who would really turn out Mormons in the area and I'd argue Romney has the beginning edge in the state.

[Joe Republic]

Nevada was so big because when Ohio was called for Obama, a lot of republicans got out of line at the polling places in Nevada, Colorado, and even on the west coast.

When did people in the western time zones get neural implants allowing them to receive direct feeds from the news networks, and why didn't I get one?

[anvi]

This is exactly where I'd put it right now, except that I'd have Indiana colored blue.

[Sam Spade]

You should start your 2012 map with the concept that, in a two-person race, it is highly unlikely that either Obama or the Republican nominee will get more than 52% of the vote.  As such, we will have the same games as before.

I think Republicans have a greater chance (which is small nevertheless) of getting to 53%, since the economy is only going to get worse over the next year, but it is also quite likely that the ceiling for both Republicans and Obama is 51%. 

After all, since the late 1980s, the floor for Democrats in almost all situations has been 46%-47%, and might even be 48%.  Moreover, the floor has crystalized since 1992, and has become even more impenetrable since 2000, but maybe something will happen that breaks though.  I consider this unlikely.

As for Republicans, their floor has typically been much lower, in the 40%-41% range since the late 1980s, for numerous reasons, perhaps most importantly the content of their weak leaners, and the beliefs of their weak leaners in comparison with the base.  They simply have not crystalized in all circumstances.  But with Obama there, the floor is more likely to be in the 46%-47% (possibly 48%) range, and is almost certainly crystalized.

[Person Man]

Basically, any prediction map should be based on the state's presidential PVI in 2008, with anything under 2 being "toss up" and anything over 5 being "safe".  Beyond that, it should be changed where one party showed structural weakness in 2010. States that come to mind are Colorado (Where Republicans were very weak compared to where they should have been), New Hampshire (Where Democrats have become increasingly unpopular) and perhaps Florida (where a center-right state government was replace by a hard-right one).

[Niemeyerite]