2) Social conservatives are still in charge (note the criticism of Romney and popularity of Bachmann).
No.
Bachmann is popular because she's perceived as a libertarian-leaning Tea Partier. I sh** you not, I had a friend ask me what I thought of "Bachmann, I hear she's kind of libertarian". The pray-the-gay-away stuff and other loony so-con positions will sink her.
The criticism of Romney, first and foremost, is that he's a RINO trying really hard to fool everyone. Romneycare will sink him. I don't think anyone outside of the Bible Belt really cares that he's a Mormon, I imagine a lot of people think that's like an Episcopalian or something.
I just wonder when one of these candidates will start having the balls to actually attack. I'm sick of this goddamn Tea Party lovefest of fake-ass social conservative retreads.