What will happen to Scott Walker?

[Franzl]

Option 2

[krazen1211]

I think Walker and Kasich (and to a lesser degree Snyder) knew that they would probably be one-termers anyway, so they are trying to ram through as extreme right-wing an agenda as possible before they are up for reelection.

Kasich I could see losing, but Walker and Snyder especially appear to be headed towards re-election.

Ohio governors have historically been re-elected.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Look at how governor Daniels started.  Walker will win in 2014.

[Napoleon]

I think Walker and Kasich (and to a lesser degree Snyder) knew that they would probably be one-termers anyway, so they are trying to ram through as extreme right-wing an agenda as possible before they are up for reelection.

Kasich I could see losing, but Walker and Snyder especially appear to be headed towards re-election.

Ohio governors have historically been re-elected.

I'm sure Ted Strickland is a good example of this.

[Dgov]

I think Walker and Kasich (and to a lesser degree Snyder) knew that they would probably be one-termers anyway, so they are trying to ram through as extreme right-wing an agenda as possible before they are up for reelection.

Kasich I could see losing, but Walker and Snyder especially appear to be headed towards re-election.

Ohio governors have historically been re-elected.

I'm sure Ted Strickland is a good example of this.

He actually is--He only lost by a few points in 2010 despite the rest of the statewide ticket getting utterly destroyed.  Ohioans do generally like to re-elect their governors in most cases, but in 2010 the Republican wave was simply too large.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Option 2

Even if the economy improves in WI?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think Walker and Kasich (and to a lesser degree Snyder) knew that they would probably be one-termers anyway, so they are trying to ram through as extreme right-wing an agenda as possible before they are up for reelection.

Kasich I could see losing, but Walker and Snyder especially appear to be headed towards re-election.

Ohio governors have historically been re-elected.

I'm sure Ted Strickland is a good example of this.

He actually is--He only lost by a few points in 2010 despite the rest of the statewide ticket getting utterly destroyed.  Ohioans do generally like to re-elect their governors in most cases, but in 2010 the Republican wave was simply too large.

It's actually a bit more complicated than that, the wave wasn't the biggest reason Strickland lost, it was the perception that Ohio's economy hadn't improved during his term and fact that many Ohio voters had the unrealistic expectation that Strickland would be able to reverse Ohio's economic woes in one term (Strickland kept things from continuing to get worse and did about as good a job as could be expected given the circumstances, imo).  That being said, the reason the election was so close was not that Ohio loves reelecting governors, it was that Strickland was very strong candidate and ran an excellent campaign (with the exception of his performance in the debates, which was painful to watch).  If it hadn't been for the perceptions about his handling of the economy, Strickland would've won despite the Republican wave.  As for the rest of the Democratic ticket, O'Shaughnessy, Boyce, and Fisher ended up being lousy candidates for a variety of reasons.  David Pepper (I wouldn't say he was destroyed) was a good candidate and may very well have lost due to the wave, but if you want an example of an incumbent in Ohio who lost b/c of the wave, it's Cordray not Strickland.  Cordray and was arguably the best state Attorney General in the country, yet he lost to Mike DeWine, an unpopular party hack (although Cordray lost by less than Strickland).  Cordray, Strickland, and to a lesser degree Pepper weren't destroyed, O'Shaughnessy, Boyce, and Fisher (it's not like no one other than Strickland put up a good fight).

[krazen1211]

I'm sure Ted Strickland is a good example of this.

Every exception has its rules. You can either choose the prediction that has been historically likely or the one that's been historically unlikely.

[jimrtex]

So does Wisconsin's recall system work like California's? There's a yes/no question, then a "Who do you want to replace Walker?" question? Because otherwise wouldn't the awful Lt. Governor take over?

An office holder is subject to recall after he has been in office for one year.  What basically happens is a new election is held, with that challenged candidate presumed to file, unless he resigns.  There can be one recall election per term.

It appears that any elected official is subject to recall, so conceivably you could also end up with 100s of school board and city and county officials being recalled.

There are 60 days to collect quite a lot of signatures.  Around 15,000 to 20,000 depending on the senate district, with on the order of 100,000 registered voters per district.  After that there is 31 days to determine the sufficiency of the petitions.  Because voters must reside in the district of the official being recalled, there could be a lot of invalid signatures.  Persons wh reside in districts where the senator was elected in 2010 may want to sign a signature, as well as Democrats in Democratic districts.

The election is then set 6 weeks later.  Candidates for senator need 400 signatures.  If more than two candidates file for a party, a primary is held instead with the special recall election 4 weeks after that.  There are 3 qualified parties in Wisconsin: Democratic, Republican, and Constitution.  The Libertarians and Green parties have lost their qualifications.  Independents can have a 5 word statement of principles on the ballot.

There is no party registration in Wisconsin and party choice is on the ballot (in secret).  So you have the potential for Republican candidates who run against Walker, and Democrats who run on the basis of going to Madison instead of Rockford.  If there is only one contested primary, there is a chance for mischief since it is easy to vote in any primary.

If there is a primary, then any the special election is held 4 weeks later, including independent candidates.  You have the possibility of independents stating their principle as "Replace All Senators" or "End Partisan Bickering" which could draw off votes.  These could be stealth candidates, since there are voters who won't vote for a Democrat (or vice versa) but might for an "independent" candidate.

About Recalls in Wisconsin

Recall Manual for Congressional, County and State Officials - click on PDF

Circulating Recall Petitions in Public Buildings - click on PDS

This last one is pretty interesting, since it covers not only circulating in public buildings but soliciting public workers and circulating by public workers (during office hours).  It basically says that this is not illegal, but may be covered by personnel policies, etc.  So you are going to get nasty squabbles about what someone actually did (eg did the school teacher actually solicit signatures from 18 YO students, or imply they would receive a better grade when they signed the petition; or was it simply the matter of the teacher using the situation as an opportunity to education and not realize that his power and prestige overwhelmed the independent reasoning of the students.

[California8429]

Too early to tell, but I do believe he can come out of this with strong governing over 4 years. Especially if other states go in the tank (California) and people in Wisconsin look around to see that thanks to cutting the budget they aren't printing IOUs

[Badger]

Too early to tell, but I do believe he can come out of this with strong governing over 4 years. Especially if other states go in the tank (California) and people in Wisconsin look around to see that thanks to cutting the budget they aren't printing IOUs

But they're NOT cutting the budget.

1) Unions agreed to financial concessions.

2) Without Walker's corporate tax cuts, the budget is in okay shape, and not even that bad for subsiquent FY's.

[jimrtex]

Too early to tell, but I do believe he can come out of this with strong governing over 4 years. Especially if other states go in the tank (California) and people in Wisconsin look around to see that thanks to cutting the budget they aren't printing IOUs

But they're NOT cutting the budget.

1) Unions agreed to financial concessions.

2) Without Walker's corporate tax cuts, the budget is in okay shape, and not even that bad for subsiquent FY's.

Did you know that the personal income tax deduction for medical savings accounts simply made the Wisconsin tax code consistent with the federal tax code?   Did you know that personal income taxes are not corporate taxes?  Did you know the this deduction takes effect for the 2011 tax year, which does not show up in state revenues until 2012 (next fiscal biennium)?

Did you know that the credit for business relocating to Wisconsin is so tightly drawn that hardly anyone but very small business qualify. since anyone else is likely to have conducted business in the state?  And someone who is relocating to Wisconsin is bringing jobs to Wisconsin?  These tax laws also do not have an impact until the next fiscal biennium?

Did you know that the other business tax deduction would almost entirely show up on personal income taxes - that is, the businesses benefiting are partnerships and sole proprietorships and not evil corporations?  Ditto on the fiscal year?

Did you know the deficit for the current biennium is for Medicaid and corrections items that weren't budgeted.   If you don't add them to the budget, you can't spend the money, even if it doesn't add to the deficit? 

[Stranger in a strange land]

I'd say there's probably only about a 25% chance he'll get recalled, but the Unions and state democratic party will put everything they have into it. If he doesn't get recalled, he'll very likely lose in 2014: I don't think he cares about getting reelected, knows any reelection battle will be uphill, and will try to push through as much of his agenda as he can, even if he ends up taking down the state's Republican house delegation and legislative majorities with him.

[Wiz in Wis]

Walker will get recalled. The number of signatures needed isn't that insurmountable... and they can come from anywhere. I imagine that Madison and Milwaukee could produce the needed signatures on their own. Now, he might win a recall if the Dems nominate a weak candidate, but I think the recall is a near certainty.

[GeorgiaSenator]

The good people will learn, despite the ranting of hateful liberals and their equally hateful freinds in the press, that Walker is far sighted and he will be elected to a second term with over 65% of the vote.

Hate only hurts the hater!!

[feeblepizza]

The voters will eventually learn to respect him for his decisions and return him for a second term in 2014, although by a very close margin.

[Napoleon]

I'd say there's probably only about a 25% chance he'll get recalled, but the Unions and state democratic party will put everything they have into it. If he doesn't get recalled, he'll very likely lose in 2014: I don't think he cares about getting reelected, knows any reelection battle will be uphill, and will try to push through as much of his agenda as he can, even if he ends up taking down the state's Republican house delegation and legislative majorities with him.

Everything he's doing is meant to preserve GOP control by any means necessary.  He's trying to tear down the structure of the Democratic Party. I can't wait to see his maps. It'll be sickening.

[DrScholl]

He's a one termer, I very much doubt that his decisions will become popular all of the sudden, not enough to get crossover support.  If he is re-elected, I would imagine the Waukesha County would have to find enough votes days after the election.

[MAINEiac4434]

Like many of these new GOP governors, he was a one-termer before all this anti-union bullsh*t got started.

But now, Walker has basically solidified the fact that he's not getting reelected, and it remains very likely he'll be recalled. In my opinion, it's either lose in 2014 or lose in the recall.

[Wiz in Wis]

You know, it's really too bad that Russ Feingold has apparently no desire to return to elected office. Base on recent PPP polling, it appears that Wisconsinites have a big case of buyers remorse, especially for him. I actually think he is more likely to run for Governor than Senate and work with the weasel who beat him, though he seems inclined to sit back and quote Springfield Sanitation Commissioner Ray Patterson:

"Oh...oh, gosh...you know, I'm not much on speeches, but it's so gratifying to
leave you wallowing in the mess you've made.  You're screwed, thank you, bye."

[Jackson]

Recall him and vote him out of office.

[pbrower2a]

He has high disapproval numbers -- and the disapproval is intense. Given a chance to oust this dictator, voters will do so. He has to perform miracles to avoid a recall.

[Gass3268]

In order for a recall to happen organizers are going to have to get signatures of 1/4th of number of people who voted in the general election. Which would mean they would need around 500,000. This can't start until a year after Walker had been in office, which would mean early January, and they would have 60 days to collect. I think the way a lot of people are energized and organized, this would be a pretty easy number to get to. You could almost get this number in just Milwaukee and Madison let alone Eau Claire, LaCrosse, Green Bay, etc.

The big thing will be who decides to run against him. If it is Feingold I think he gets recalled pretty easily, as as sense of buyers remorse has started to set in with him. If it is Barrett or someone else I think it would be a tossup.