June Jobs Report

[BushKenya]

Pretty good jobs report, but still one question? What's the unemployment rate at now?

[CARLHAYDEN]

Even the adjustment bureau admits to a 9.2% (seasonally adjusted) U-3 unemployment rate for June, 2011.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

[CARLHAYDEN]

Even the adjustment bureau admits to a 9.2% (seasonally adjusted) U-3 unemployment rate for June, 2011.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Oh, and here's some more information:

U.S. Payrolls Rose 18,000 in June; Jobless Rate Climbed to 9.2%

By Shobhana Chandra - Jul 8, 2011 5:30 AM MT Fri Jul 08 12:30:00 GMT 2011

U.S. employers added 18,000 workers in June, less than forecast and the fewest in nine months, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed, indicating a struggling labor market.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-08/u-s-payrolls-rose-18-000-in-june-jobless-rate-climbed-to-9-2-.html

[CARLHAYDEN]

Oh, and about those "jobs added in May"

Unemployment rose to 9.2 percent as hiring stalls

Published: Friday, 8 Jul 2011 | 8:43 AM ET

WASHINGTON - The Labor Department said Friday that the … number of jobs added in May was revised down to 25,000.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43683108

[Tender Branson]

+18.000 overall

+57.000 in the private sector

- 39.000 in the government sector

[pinqy]

Like I said...the ADP report is not a good indictaor of the BLS report.  Crappy report, no real change (the UE rate change is not statistically significantly different from zero).

[Skill and Chance]

Well Obama had his chance and he blew it.  At least the Fed saw it coming and did its best, but it wasn't nearly enough.  The government needed to do something WWII-sized in early 2009 to get us out of this mess and set the economy on the right path.  And no, I don't mean start a war, I mean one-time new government spending projects equivalent to WWII as a proportion of US GDP.

[Lief]

So I guess Mitt Romney will be president now.

[Fuzzy]

+18.000 overall

+57.000 in the private sector

- 39.000 in the government sector

Thank god for budget cuts 

[True Federalist]

So I guess Mitt Romney will be president now.

Why?  The main appeal Romney has for GOP primary voters is his supposed "electability" in the general election.  If the economy is such that most of the potential nominees can win the general election then he loses that supposed advantage.  Romney is 2012's Giuliani.  Rudy was leading the primary polls four years ago because he was "electable", but he sank like lead balloon once the campaign season began in earnest and the primary voters decided that electability was not their principal concern.  I expect the same to happen with Mitt.

[CARLHAYDEN]

A rather detailed (and hence lengthy) explanation of the machinations of the adjustment bureau.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/birthdeath-adjustment-was-responsible-over-50-payroll-gains-past-year

[pinqy]

A rather detailed (and hence lengthy) explanation of the machinations of the adjustment bureau.

Two things of note about that article:
1: the author doesn't give any suggestion on how to deal with the problem of business birth/death without a birth/death model.  
2. He fails to note that every year rebenchmarking is done based on a full count of the state records, so that any error from the birth death model is then corrected.

[Snowguy716]

Well Obama had his chance and he blew it.  At least the Fed saw it coming and did its best, but it wasn't nearly enough.  The government needed to do something WWII-sized in early 2009 to get us out of this mess and set the economy on the right path.  And no, I don't mean start a war, I mean one-time new government spending projects equivalent to WWII as a proportion of US GDP.

That's the thing with Keynesian stimulis spending.. it has to be massive.  If the government had spent $1 trillion on roads alone.... it would've headed off much of the recession since most construction workers could be quickly retrained from home building into road building.  But it's all shoulda coulda woulda at this point.

[BushKenya]

Pretty good jobs report, but still one question? What's the unemployment rate at now?

Strike this post from the record.  I thought, for some reason, the numbers released Thursday were the monthly jobs report, not the weekly jobless claims report.

This was an awful report, though not really suprising, and definitely not wanted the Obama administration wanted to hear.

[InsaneTrollLogic]

What do you expect? Whose going to grow their business when we don't even know if we will be able to afford to have a government 3 weeks from now.

[The Vorlon]

Pretty bad, don't think there was a single shred of good news in the entire report.

President Michele Bachmann.... what do ya think?

But seriously....

The lack of a budget deal is an issue... businesses KNOW with metaphysical certainty the US has to do something, but until that something takes form they will, quite predictable, sit on the
sidelines.....

I am reminded of a quote from Winston Churchill:

"The Americans will eventually do the right thing... after first having exhausted all other available options....."

[True Federalist]

Blaming the June job numbers on the debt ceiling issue is largely bogus, since practically no one thought in June that the debt ceiling wouldn't be raised.  It might have a noticeable effect on the July numbers depending on how close to the deadline they get. The increase in energy prices and shrinking government payrolls are the major factors for June.

[The Vorlon]

Blaming the June job numbers on the debt ceiling issue is largely bogus, since practically no one thought in June that the debt ceiling wouldn't be raised.  It might have a noticeable effect on the July numbers depending on how close to the deadline they get. The increase in energy prices and shrinking government payrolls are the major factors for June.

I think the general economic mess regarding the deficit is a big issue actually.

at 11% of GDP they have to do someting fairly soon.... it's not knowing what the "something" is that is causing a lot of uncertainty.

July it just got worse as the debt limit issue came up hard in people's faces, but the debt ceiling is just the current crisis associated with long term structural deficit.

[True Federalist]

Blaming the June job numbers on the debt ceiling issue is largely bogus, since practically no one thought in June that the debt ceiling wouldn't be raised.  It might have a noticeable effect on the July numbers depending on how close to the deadline they get. The increase in energy prices and shrinking government payrolls are the major factors for June.

I think the general economic mess regarding the deficit is a big issue actually.

at 11% of GDP they have to do something fairly soon.... it's not knowing what the "something" is that is causing a lot of uncertainty.

July it just got worse as the debt limit issue came up hard in people's faces, but the debt ceiling is just the current crisis associated with long term structural deficit.

Long term you are right, but there wasn't enough concern about this in June to cause much of a short term shift in employment decisions.  This month it will, and the impact will be greater the longer the debt veiling circus drags on.

[Alaska Thunderfvck]

The only reason the June Jobs report was so sh!tty is because Congress isnt doing it's job. When obviously  "nothing can pass in the House", what are you expecting to happen? Contrary to popular belief, ending planned parenthood, repealing light bulb regulations, and proposing spending cuts so deep that jobs are actually spilling out...is not going to save the economy. It's funny, Congressional Freshman campaigned on jobs, and they've been the majority for quite some time now. Unemployment started going back up, after actually showing signs of improving greatly (WHAT? Nonsense!), once the GOP secured the House. They have nobody else to blame but themselves.