Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 20, 2014, 05:54:33 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  General Politics
| |-+  Economics (Moderator: ag)
| | |-+  June Jobs Report
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] Print
Author Topic: June Jobs Report  (Read 2483 times)
Christmas Bushie 2014
BushOklahoma
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21965
Kenya


View Profile
« Reply #25 on: July 07, 2011, 03:21:23 pm »
Ignore

Pretty good jobs report, but still one question? What's the unemployment rate at now?
Logged

My earlier comment notwithstanding, I do think that the site would be better off if Inks left his position. (The fact that the village idiot has dropped in to express his support for him only confirms this.)
CARLHAYDEN
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10660


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

View Profile
« Reply #26 on: July 08, 2011, 07:39:07 am »
Ignore

Even the adjustment bureau admits to a 9.2% (seasonally adjusted) U-3 unemployment rate for June, 2011.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Logged

Registered in Arizona for Fantasy election purposes.
CARLHAYDEN
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10660


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

View Profile
« Reply #27 on: July 08, 2011, 07:42:22 am »
Ignore

Even the adjustment bureau admits to a 9.2% (seasonally adjusted) U-3 unemployment rate for June, 2011.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm


Oh, and here's some more information:

U.S. Payrolls Rose 18,000 in June; Jobless Rate Climbed to 9.2%

By Shobhana Chandra - Jul 8, 2011 5:30 AM MT Fri Jul 08 12:30:00 GMT 2011

U.S. employers added 18,000 workers in June, less than forecast and the fewest in nine months, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed, indicating a struggling labor market.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-08/u-s-payrolls-rose-18-000-in-june-jobless-rate-climbed-to-9-2-.html


Logged

Registered in Arizona for Fantasy election purposes.
CARLHAYDEN
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10660


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

View Profile
« Reply #28 on: July 08, 2011, 07:51:13 am »
Ignore

Oh, and about those "jobs added in May"

Unemployment rose to 9.2 percent as hiring stalls

Published: Friday, 8 Jul 2011 | 8:43 AM ET

WASHINGTON - The Labor Department said Friday that the Ö number of jobs added in May was revised down to 25,000.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43683108

Logged

Registered in Arizona for Fantasy election purposes.
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34547
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #29 on: July 08, 2011, 07:55:34 am »
Ignore

+18.000 overall

+57.000 in the private sector

- 39.000 in the government sector
Logged
pinqy
Newbie
*
Posts: 13
United States


View Profile
« Reply #30 on: July 08, 2011, 08:18:57 am »
Ignore

Like I said...the ADP report is not a good indictaor of the BLS report.  Crappy report, no real change (the UE rate change is not statistically significantly different from zero).
Logged
Skill and Chance
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2032
View Profile
« Reply #31 on: July 08, 2011, 08:49:01 am »
Ignore

Well Obama had his chance and he blew it.  At least the Fed saw it coming and did its best, but it wasn't nearly enough.  The government needed to do something WWII-sized in early 2009 to get us out of this mess and set the economy on the right path.  And no, I don't mean start a war, I mean one-time new government spending projects equivalent to WWII as a proportion of US GDP.
Logged
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 33394


View Profile
« Reply #32 on: July 08, 2011, 09:57:51 am »
Ignore

So I guess Mitt Romney will be president now.
Logged

Fuzzybigfoot
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4036
United States


View Profile
« Reply #33 on: July 08, 2011, 10:42:55 am »
Ignore

+18.000 overall

+57.000 in the private sector

- 39.000 in the government sector

Thank god for budget cuts  Tongue
Logged
True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28440
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #34 on: July 08, 2011, 12:45:55 pm »
Ignore

So I guess Mitt Romney will be president now.

Why?  The main appeal Romney has for GOP primary voters is his supposed "electability" in the general election.  If the economy is such that most of the potential nominees can win the general election then he loses that supposed advantage.  Romney is 2012's Giuliani.  Rudy was leading the primary polls four years ago because he was "electable", but he sank like lead balloon once the campaign season began in earnest and the primary voters decided that electability was not their principal concern.  I expect the same to happen with Mitt.
Logged

My November ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
Yes: Amendment 1 (Gen. Assembly may allow and regulate charity raffles)
No: Amendment 2 (end election of the Adjutant General)
CARLHAYDEN
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10660


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

View Profile
« Reply #35 on: July 08, 2011, 03:13:46 pm »
Ignore

A rather detailed (and hence lengthy) explanation of the machinations of the adjustment bureau.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/birthdeath-adjustment-was-responsible-over-50-payroll-gains-past-year
Logged

Registered in Arizona for Fantasy election purposes.
pinqy
Newbie
*
Posts: 13
United States


View Profile
« Reply #36 on: July 08, 2011, 08:12:05 pm »
Ignore

A rather detailed (and hence lengthy) explanation of the machinations of the adjustment bureau.

Two things of note about that article:
1: the author doesn't give any suggestion on how to deal with the problem of business birth/death without a birth/death model.  
2. He fails to note that every year rebenchmarking is done based on a full count of the state records, so that any error from the birth death model is then corrected.

Logged
Snowguy716
snowguy716
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16947
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -8.52

View Profile
« Reply #37 on: July 08, 2011, 08:57:51 pm »
Ignore

Well Obama had his chance and he blew it.  At least the Fed saw it coming and did its best, but it wasn't nearly enough.  The government needed to do something WWII-sized in early 2009 to get us out of this mess and set the economy on the right path.  And no, I don't mean start a war, I mean one-time new government spending projects equivalent to WWII as a proportion of US GDP.
That's the thing with Keynesian stimulis spending.. it has to be massive.  If the government had spent $1 trillion on roads alone.... it would've headed off much of the recession since most construction workers could be quickly retrained from home building into road building.  But it's all shoulda coulda woulda at this point.
Logged

"Above and beyond the question of how to grow the economy there is a legitimate concern about how to grow the quality of our lives."
-Paul Wellstone


Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party
Christmas Bushie 2014
BushOklahoma
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21965
Kenya


View Profile
« Reply #38 on: July 08, 2011, 10:49:10 pm »
Ignore

Pretty good jobs report, but still one question? What's the unemployment rate at now?

Strike this post from the record.  I thought, for some reason, the numbers released Thursday were the monthly jobs report, not the weekly jobless claims report.

This was an awful report, though not really suprising, and definitely not wanted the Obama administration wanted to hear.
Logged

My earlier comment notwithstanding, I do think that the site would be better off if Inks left his position. (The fact that the village idiot has dropped in to express his support for him only confirms this.)
MooMooMoo
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12540
United States


View Profile
« Reply #39 on: July 11, 2011, 06:23:28 pm »
Ignore

What do you expect? Whose going to grow their business when we don't even know if we will be able to afford to have a government 3 weeks from now.
Logged


the result is a sense that we were told to attend a lavish dinner party that was going to be wonderful and by the time we got there, all the lobster and steak had been eaten, a fight had broken out, the police had been called and all that was left was warm beer and chips.
[/quot
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4567


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

View Profile
« Reply #40 on: July 11, 2011, 10:11:18 pm »
Ignore

Pretty bad, don't think there was a single shred of good news in the entire report.

President Michele Bachmann.... what do ya think?

But seriously....

The lack of a budget deal is an issue... businesses KNOW with metaphysical certainty the US has to do something, but until that something takes form they will, quite predictable, sit on the
sidelines.....

I am reminded of a quote from Winston Churchill:

"The Americans will eventually do the right thing... after first having exhausted all other available options....."
« Last Edit: July 13, 2011, 05:30:57 pm by The Vorlon »Logged

No man's liberty is safe while Congress is in session...Thomas Jefferson
True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28440
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #41 on: July 12, 2011, 12:40:39 pm »
Ignore

Blaming the June job numbers on the debt ceiling issue is largely bogus, since practically no one thought in June that the debt ceiling wouldn't be raised.  It might have a noticeable effect on the July numbers depending on how close to the deadline they get. The increase in energy prices and shrinking government payrolls are the major factors for June.
Logged

My November ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
Yes: Amendment 1 (Gen. Assembly may allow and regulate charity raffles)
No: Amendment 2 (end election of the Adjutant General)
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4567


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

View Profile
« Reply #42 on: July 13, 2011, 05:33:53 pm »
Ignore

Blaming the June job numbers on the debt ceiling issue is largely bogus, since practically no one thought in June that the debt ceiling wouldn't be raised.  It might have a noticeable effect on the July numbers depending on how close to the deadline they get. The increase in energy prices and shrinking government payrolls are the major factors for June.

I think the general economic mess regarding the deficit is a big issue actually.

at 11% of GDP they have to do someting fairly soon.... it's not knowing what the "something" is that is causing a lot of uncertainty.

July it just got worse as the debt limit issue came up hard in people's faces, but the debt ceiling is just the current crisis associated with long term structural deficit.
Logged

No man's liberty is safe while Congress is in session...Thomas Jefferson
True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28440
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #43 on: July 13, 2011, 08:30:20 pm »
Ignore

Blaming the June job numbers on the debt ceiling issue is largely bogus, since practically no one thought in June that the debt ceiling wouldn't be raised.  It might have a noticeable effect on the July numbers depending on how close to the deadline they get. The increase in energy prices and shrinking government payrolls are the major factors for June.

I think the general economic mess regarding the deficit is a big issue actually.

at 11% of GDP they have to do something fairly soon.... it's not knowing what the "something" is that is causing a lot of uncertainty.

July it just got worse as the debt limit issue came up hard in people's faces, but the debt ceiling is just the current crisis associated with long term structural deficit.

Long term you are right, but there wasn't enough concern about this in June to cause much of a short term shift in employment decisions.  This month it will, and the impact will be greater the longer the debt veiling circus drags on.
Logged

My November ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
Yes: Amendment 1 (Gen. Assembly may allow and regulate charity raffles)
No: Amendment 2 (end election of the Adjutant General)
Volatilesaff
MATCHU[D]
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6341
United States


View Profile
« Reply #44 on: July 14, 2011, 02:14:36 am »
Ignore

The only reason the June Jobs report was so sh!tty is because Congress isnt doing it's job. When obviously  "nothing can pass in the House", what are you expecting to happen? Contrary to popular belief, ending planned parenthood, repealing light bulb regulations, and proposing spending cuts so deep that jobs are actually spilling out...is not going to save the economy. It's funny, Congressional Freshman campaigned on jobs, and they've been the majority for quite some time now. Unemployment started going back up, after actually showing signs of improving greatly (WHAT? Nonsense!), once the GOP secured the House. They have nobody else to blame but themselves.
Logged

Warren '16!
Pages: 1 [2] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines