Redistricting makes taking back the House difficult for Dems

[Torie]

And the reason as pointed out with some stats is not that the GOP will gain seats from the process (it will be about a wash), but because so many marginal seats held by the GOP will become substantially safer.  Granted the GOP has already booted the ball a bit in a few places such as Indiana, and we shall see what happens in PA and OH, but the bottom line is that the Dems will have to get about 53% of the House vote (or close to it) or so to take control. That is a pretty big headwind.

[Torie]

people said the same thing during the 1991 round of redistricting where the democrats controlled FAR more legislatures and had something like a 270-165 house majority. Look what happened there.

The Pubbies made progress in that round of redistricting (not as much as this time), and then secured about 52%-53% of the vote or so, if I recall correctly, in 1994. The 1992 CD's were not as Gerried towards the Dems as the 2012 seats will be for the Pubbies in any event.

[Torie]

The Pubs this time got total control of PA and OH, and that is critical.  They also grabbed the lesser fry of Indiana and Wisconsin.  The Tom DeLay Texas six pack I think was for the 2004 election no?

[Torie]

I doubt from the map that the Pubs had control of Ohio. You are right about PA.  I forgot because their effort was such a Dummymander. The Dummymander in Indiana this time still around moved one CD from marginal to safe (IN-09), and another from lean Dem to marginal or lean GOP.  In Wisconsin, a lean Dem seat becomes slightly lean GOP (WI-07).  Drip, drip, drip.

[Torie]

OK.  I guess the big change is the population collapse in the Dem zones in Ohio (outside of Columbus). Ditto Michigan (outside of Ann Arbor and Lansing).

[Torie]

I still love my Ohio map BRTD.  I might have it framed.   10 Pubbie seats with GOP PVI's of at least 4%, with 8 of the 10 over 5% or close to it.  It is my piece de resistance given that dmapper has demonstrated beyond per adventure that he is considerably more competent and creative than I  at screwing the Dems legally in Michigan.  Of course, the GOP came up with something rather lame there, although not as pathetic as Indiana and to a lesser extent Wisconsin.

[Torie]

I still love my Ohio map BRTD.  I might have it framed.  

Its better than that Penn mao you made?

Yes, because it was more creative. PA was just slogging through, with a couple of clever pawn moves (like picking up Little Italy in southside Philly and appending it to a Pubbie CD via the airport and turning the Holden GOP leaning CD into a Dem sink, an idea that seems conventional wisdom now).  Ohio required a lot of thought, and presented a lot of problems. But where there is a will, there is a way - sometimes, including this time!