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| | |-+  List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results
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Author Topic: List of post-2016 state/federal special elections & results  (Read 4507 times)
Sorenroy
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« Reply #25 on: May 30, 2017, 08:57:28 pm »
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State Legislative

TypeStateDistDateRunoff'16 Mar'16 P MarSpecial MarSwing (Avg)
SenateSC35/30/17No OppoNo Oppo*
HouseSC845/30/17No OppoR+21


Senate 03
https://www.scvotes.org/state-senate-district-3-special-election
*Write-In, the "opponent", won 18.3% of the vote against the Republican candidate.
https://ballotpedia.org/South_Carolina_State_Senate_District_3

House 84
https://www.scvotes.org/state-house-representatives-district-84-special-election
https://ballotpedia.org/South_Carolina_House_of_Representatives_District_84
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Even though I like the cut of Bernie's jib, he's not a great candidate, just one that at least acknowledges some of the problems with our nation, without being a pestilent orange cancer on the face of humanity.
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« Reply #26 on: June 16, 2017, 12:39:20 pm »

State Legislative

TypeStateDistDateRunoff'16 Mar'16 P MarSpecial MarSwing (Avg)
HouseTN956/15/17N/AR+39R+27D+12

No D has contested this legislative seat near Memphis for 20 years. Turnout was an abysmal 9%.

http://www.commercialappeal.com/story/news/politics/elections/2017/06/16/kevin-vaughan-wins-tennessee-house-district-95-race/390263001/
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C2MVeM2K7WgqmJw5RCQbWyTo2u73CX1pI8zw_G-7BJo/edit#gid=0
« Last Edit: June 16, 2017, 12:42:53 pm by Brittain33 »Logged
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« Reply #27 on: June 21, 2017, 02:06:53 am »
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Updated congressionals. I'll get around to doing the 2 state legislative races tomorrow (unless somebody beats me to it).
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To some extent, Griffin was in many ways elected as a War time President because he viewed, not as the guy you want a beer with, but the guy you would go to a bar fight with.
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« Reply #28 on: July 15, 2017, 05:47:13 pm »
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Oklahoma races added.
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To some extent, Griffin was in many ways elected as a War time President because he viewed, not as the guy you want a beer with, but the guy you would go to a bar fight with.
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« Reply #29 on: July 18, 2017, 05:06:39 pm »
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NH's Merrimack 18 will have an election tonight between Kris Schultz (D) and Michael Feeley (R). For reference, the Democrat won 56-44 last year. Small electorates here, though: I could see almost any imaginable result here tonight.
« Last Edit: July 18, 2017, 05:08:23 pm by Fmr. Pres. Griffin »Logged




To some extent, Griffin was in many ways elected as a War time President because he viewed, not as the guy you want a beer with, but the guy you would go to a bar fight with.
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« Reply #30 on: July 18, 2017, 09:14:55 pm »
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NH's Merrimack 18 will have an election tonight between Kris Schultz (D) and Michael Feeley (R). For reference, the Democrat won 56-44 last year. Small electorates here, though: I could see almost any imaginable result here tonight.

Schultz wins 78-22 (284-82).
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To some extent, Griffin was in many ways elected as a War time President because he viewed, not as the guy you want a beer with, but the guy you would go to a bar fight with.
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« Reply #31 on: July 20, 2017, 06:22:51 am »
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Is there an aggregated average somewhere in the thread that I somehow missed?
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This place really has become a cesspool of degenerate whores...

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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #32 on: July 20, 2017, 06:29:19 am »
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Is there an aggregated average somewhere in the thread that I somehow missed?
The average is +13
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« Reply #33 on: July 20, 2017, 05:39:53 pm »
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NH's Merrimack 18 will have an election tonight between Kris Schultz (D) and Michael Feeley (R). For reference, the Democrat won 56-44 last year. Small electorates here, though: I could see almost any imaginable result here tonight.

Schultz wins 78-22 (284-82).

44 point swing that is insane. Liberals are willing to walk through shards of glass to slap Trump in the face.
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« Reply #34 on: July 21, 2017, 09:11:37 am »
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Is there an aggregated average somewhere in the thread that I somehow missed?

Excluding a few situations where something went off-track (one candidate dropping out after winning the primary, etc):

State legislative: 11.7-point swing
Congressional: 15.4-point swing

Total: 12.3-point swing
« Last Edit: July 21, 2017, 09:13:29 am by Fmr. Pres. Griffin »Logged




To some extent, Griffin was in many ways elected as a War time President because he viewed, not as the guy you want a beer with, but the guy you would go to a bar fight with.
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« Reply #35 on: July 25, 2017, 11:06:28 pm »
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Elections tonight in New Hampshire's State Senate District 10 and in Massachusetts' Senate Middlesex District 4.

In New Hampshire, the Democrat won by 10 points (the Dem won this district by 2 in 2016; Clinton won by less than 1 point).

In Massachusetts, the election came down to a Democrat versus a Green; the Democrat won with 88% of the vote; no Republican qualified. In 2016, Clinton won this district by 29 points.
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To some extent, Griffin was in many ways elected as a War time President because he viewed, not as the guy you want a beer with, but the guy you would go to a bar fight with.
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« Reply #36 on: August 03, 2017, 03:15:18 pm »
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WA Senate 45 special jungle primary results added (runoff will be 11/7). More was spent during this jungle primary than in all other races in the district going back to 2000 - combined.

Also, can we just reflect for a moment on how dumb Washington's jungle primary system is (namely, the fact that you can win a majority and still have to do it all over again in a runoff)?
« Last Edit: August 03, 2017, 03:21:39 pm by Fmr. Pres. Griffin »Logged




To some extent, Griffin was in many ways elected as a War time President because he viewed, not as the guy you want a beer with, but the guy you would go to a bar fight with.
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« Reply #37 on: August 03, 2017, 03:20:09 pm »
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WA Senate 45 special jungle primary results added (runoff will be 11/7).

Also, can we just reflect for a moment on how dumb Washington's jungle primary system is (namely, the fact that you can win a majority and still have to do it all over again in a runoff)?

I think that part is fair. Otherwise, low-turnout primaries could determine general election results even though they are not necessarily representative of the wider pool of voters who vote in general elections.
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« Reply #38 on: August 03, 2017, 03:31:18 pm »
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WA Senate 45 special jungle primary results added (runoff will be 11/7).

Also, can we just reflect for a moment on how dumb Washington's jungle primary system is (namely, the fact that you can win a majority and still have to do it all over again in a runoff)?

I think that part is fair. Otherwise, low-turnout primaries could determine general election results even though they are not necessarily representative of the wider pool of voters who vote in general elections.

It's a special election, though. WA doesn't even require that a candidate reach a majority in the general, right? If not, I don't necessarily see the justification here.

In most cases, without a majority required, a candidate can win without the confidence of the majority of voters whether it's high-turnout or not. With a majority required, you inevitably need to have runoffs that don't necessarily coincide with the general, which means the final decision is made by a lower turnout electorate.

Washington specifically seems to have circumvented this by a) opting for jungle primaries and b) allowing interim appointments to be made, which thankfully means that constituents aren't without representation for up to a year (since they insist on holding even special elections on the usual November GE date).

However, I don't think it necessarily prevents what you're describing, as an off-year election - even if it's on the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November - is likely to have lower turnout than a midterm or presidential election cycle.

In addition, it's very rare for a first-place candidate in a primary (whether it be jungle or not) or general election to lose vote share in a runoff, making the exercise largely a big waste of time and money.
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To some extent, Griffin was in many ways elected as a War time President because he viewed, not as the guy you want a beer with, but the guy you would go to a bar fight with.
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« Reply #39 on: August 03, 2017, 03:32:21 pm »
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WA Senate 45 special jungle primary results added (runoff will be 11/7).

Also, can we just reflect for a moment on how dumb Washington's jungle primary system is (namely, the fact that you can win a majority and still have to do it all over again in a runoff)?

I think that part is fair. Otherwise, low-turnout primaries could determine general election results even though they are not necessarily representative of the wider pool of voters who vote in general elections.

It's a special election, though. WA doesn't even require that a candidate reach a majority in the general, right? If not, I don't necessarily see the justification here.

In most cases, without a majority required, a candidate can win without the confidence of the majority of voters whether it's high-turnout or not. With a majority required, you inevitably need to have runoffs that don't necessarily coincide with the general, which means the final decision is made by a lower turnout electorate.

Washington specifically seems to have circumvented this by a) opting for jungle primaries and b) allowing interim appointments to be made, which thankfully means that constituents aren't without representation for up to a year (since they insist on holding even special elections on the usual November GE date).

However, I don't think it necessarily prevents what you're describing, as an off-year election - even if it's on the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November - is likely to have lower turnout than a midterm or presidential election cycle.

In addition, it's very rare for a first-place candidate in a primary (whether it be jungle or not) or general election to lose vote share in a runoff, making the exercise largely a big waste of time and money.
Adam, that was a primary, not a general election for WA
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« Reply #40 on: August 03, 2017, 03:37:51 pm »
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WA Senate 45 special jungle primary results added (runoff will be 11/7).

Also, can we just reflect for a moment on how dumb Washington's jungle primary system is (namely, the fact that you can win a majority and still have to do it all over again in a runoff)?

I think that part is fair. Otherwise, low-turnout primaries could determine general election results even though they are not necessarily representative of the wider pool of voters who vote in general elections.

It's a special election, though. WA doesn't even require that a candidate reach a majority in the general, right? If not, I don't necessarily see the justification here.

In most cases, without a majority required, a candidate can win without the confidence of the majority of voters whether it's high-turnout or not. With a majority required, you inevitably need to have runoffs that don't necessarily coincide with the general, which means the final decision is made by a lower turnout electorate.

Washington specifically seems to have circumvented this by a) opting for jungle primaries and b) allowing interim appointments to be made, which thankfully means that constituents aren't without representation for up to a year (since they insist on holding even special elections on the usual November GE date).

However, I don't think it necessarily prevents what you're describing, as an off-year election - even if it's on the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November - is likely to have lower turnout than a midterm or presidential election cycle.

In addition, it's very rare for a first-place candidate in a primary (whether it be jungle or not) or general election to lose vote share in a runoff, making the exercise largely a big waste of time and money.
Adam, that was a primary, not a general election for WA

It was a "jungle primary", which I do not consider to be a real primary; essentially, what they call a "general election" in this situation is a run-off, as it presumably will be for all elections held in November 2017 (I don't believe there are any regularly-scheduled state elections in WA in the odd years).

If all parties/candidates are running on the same ballot and a candidate can win a majority, that should be that. Otherwise, let each party hold its own primary and nominate accordingly; literally no point to the jungle primary if you can't get a win on the first-round.

I think this is one situation where my state actually got run-offs right. Georgia actually does utilize jungle primaries in one specific instance: state legislative elections. Candidates can declare and run as Republican, Democratic or "Non-Partisan" (the only instance in which a candidate can run under such a label) and all are on the same ballot. If one person gets 50%+1, then there is no runoff.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2017, 03:39:54 pm by Fmr. Pres. Griffin »Logged




To some extent, Griffin was in many ways elected as a War time President because he viewed, not as the guy you want a beer with, but the guy you would go to a bar fight with.
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« Reply #41 on: August 03, 2017, 03:39:35 pm »
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WA Senate 45 special jungle primary results added (runoff will be 11/7).

Also, can we just reflect for a moment on how dumb Washington's jungle primary system is (namely, the fact that you can win a majority and still have to do it all over again in a runoff)?

I think that part is fair. Otherwise, low-turnout primaries could determine general election results even though they are not necessarily representative of the wider pool of voters who vote in general elections.

It's a special election, though. WA doesn't even require that a candidate reach a majority in the general, right? If not, I don't necessarily see the justification here.

In most cases, without a majority required, a candidate can win without the confidence of the majority of voters whether it's high-turnout or not. With a majority required, you inevitably need to have runoffs that don't necessarily coincide with the general, which means the final decision is made by a lower turnout electorate.

Washington specifically seems to have circumvented this by a) opting for jungle primaries and b) allowing interim appointments to be made, which thankfully means that constituents aren't without representation for up to a year (since they insist on holding even special elections on the usual November GE date).

However, I don't think it necessarily prevents what you're describing, as an off-year election - even if it's on the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November - is likely to have lower turnout than a midterm or presidential election cycle.

In addition, it's very rare for a first-place candidate in a primary (whether it be jungle or not) or general election to lose vote share in a runoff, making the exercise largely a big waste of time and money.
Adam, that was a primary, not a general election for WA

It was a "jungle primary", which I do not consider to be a real primary; essentially, what they call a "general election" in this situation is a run-off, as it presumably will be for all elections held in November 2017 (I don't believe there are any regularly-scheduled state elections in WA in the odd years).

If all parties/candidates are running on the same ballot and a candidate can win a majority, that should be that. I think this is one situation where my state actually got run-offs right. Georgia actually does utilize jungle primaries in one specific instance: state legislative elections. Candidates can declare and run as Republican, Democratic or "Non-Partisan" (the only instance in which a candidate can run under such a label). If one person gets 50%+1, then there is no runoff.
Adam, I"m 90% sure if someone gets 50%+1 there is still a run off, this is the CA system
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« Reply #42 on: August 03, 2017, 03:41:06 pm »
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Adam, I"m 90% sure if someone gets 50%+1 there is still a run off, this is the CA system

Yes, that's what I'm saying is ridiculous: the Democratic candidate in WA-45 won approximately 51% of the vote and will still have to run for election in November.

If you're going to make all parties/candidates run on the same ballot, then you might as well eliminate any need for a run-off (you can call it a "general" if you want, but that is what it is in actuality) if one candidate actually gets a majority in a crowded field consisting of all possible contenders.
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To some extent, Griffin was in many ways elected as a War time President because he viewed, not as the guy you want a beer with, but the guy you would go to a bar fight with.
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« Reply #43 on: August 08, 2017, 10:33:31 pm »
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Here are tonight's results from IA & MO:

Quote
TypeStateDistDateRunoff'16 Mar'16 P MarSpecial MarSwing (Avg)
HouseIA828/8/17N/AR+21D+10D+31
SenateMO288/8/17N/AR+52R+40D+12
HouseMO508/8/17N/AR+21R+4D+17
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To some extent, Griffin was in many ways elected as a War time President because he viewed, not as the guy you want a beer with, but the guy you would go to a bar fight with.
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