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| | |-+  Who will win in Louisiana?
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Mary Landrieu (D)   -20 (33.3%)
Bill Cassidy (R)   -40 (66.7%)
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Total Voters: 60

Author Topic: Who will win in Louisiana?  (Read 593 times)
TDAS04
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« on: July 16, 2014, 06:55:11 pm »
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Will Landrieu survive this time?
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« Reply #1 on: July 16, 2014, 08:56:01 pm »
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Cassidy will probably win. A runoff is all but assured to occur in December in Louisiana, and a likely decline in turnout in the runoff would likely damage a Democrat like Landrieu more than Cassidy. Combine that with the distinct Republican lean of this state, and Landrieu is going to have a lot of trouble hanging on to her seat. She still has a chance, but I feel that it is a small one at this point.
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« Reply #2 on: July 16, 2014, 09:13:10 pm »
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Cassidy, and it will be by more than we all expect.
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« Reply #3 on: July 16, 2014, 09:19:21 pm »
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This is the race I'm most unsure about out of all of them, but I'm tilting towards Landrieu because she does have two opportunities to win technically as opposed to Cassidy's one chance if he can get Landrieu to a runoff.

To Cassidy's advantage, most undecided's give both Obama and Landrieu very low approval ratings and will likely vote for Cassidy or Hollis which, combined with the fact that there's perennial Democrat on the ballot who might get 2% of Landrieu's vote, Landrieu will probably be sent to a runoff. In the runoff though, she's survived two runoffs before and I think she can definitely pull it off again.
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« Reply #4 on: July 16, 2014, 09:32:06 pm »
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Cassidy. Landrieu's luck has finally run out.
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« Reply #5 on: July 16, 2014, 09:36:31 pm »
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Cassidy. Or at least, the paths Landrieu took to victory in 1996, 2002, and 2008 are all closed and to win she will have to think of something completely new -- which looks doubtful.
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« Reply #6 on: July 16, 2014, 09:49:02 pm »
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Landrieu will win this race. Her bro Mitch has excellent approvals in New Orleans which her base African Americans may have no trouble GOTV.

In 2002, they still couldnt win the runoff with a popular prez. Nate Silver just predicted a 51-49 senate with Landrieu, Hagen and Begich winning.
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Dixiecrat
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« Reply #7 on: July 16, 2014, 11:09:55 pm »
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As it is right now, I consider the race Leans Republican, but I can easily see it going the other way if Landrieu pulls a Thad Cochran.
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« Reply #8 on: July 17, 2014, 12:59:34 am »
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Since the LA race will be heading to a runoff, a lot depends on how Senate composition looks on Wednesday morning.  It's a strong possibility that Louisiana is the 51st seat for Republicans (a 50-49 Republican edge being the case after Election Day, assuming no other runoffs) which, if that is the case, Landrieu will lose something like 45-55 in the runoff.

I hope she and Pryor do "pull a Thad Cochran" and somehow win their races, but it's a lot easier for moderate Republicans to build last minute Black support than it would be for moderate Democrats to create a last minute coalition including conservative Whites in 2014.  Nevertheless, I like the campaign Mary is running and I'm hoping we can somehow send her and Pryor back to the senate while still having a GOP majority.
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Dixiecrat
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« Reply #9 on: July 17, 2014, 10:52:04 am »
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Since the LA race will be heading to a runoff, a lot depends on how Senate composition looks on Wednesday morning.  It's a strong possibility that Louisiana is the 51st seat for Republicans (a 50-49 Republican edge being the case after Election Day, assuming no other runoffs) which, if that is the case, Landrieu will lose something like 45-55 in the runoff.

I hope she and Pryor do "pull a Thad Cochran" and somehow win their races, but it's a lot easier for moderate Republicans to build last minute Black support than it would be for moderate Democrats to create a last minute coalition including conservative Whites in 2014.  Nevertheless, I like the campaign Mary is running and I'm hoping we can somehow send her and Pryor back to the senate while still having a GOP majority.

If it goes to a runoff which determines control of the senate, the race moves to Likely Republican. I agree with you, in a perfect world Republicans take control of the senate while Landrieu and Pryor keep their seats.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #10 on: July 17, 2014, 12:03:30 pm »
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Since the LA race will be heading to a runoff, a lot depends on how Senate composition looks on Wednesday morning.  It's a strong possibility that Louisiana is the 51st seat for Republicans (a 50-49 Republican edge being the case after Election Day, assuming no other runoffs) which, if that is the case, Landrieu will lose something like 45-55 in the runoff.

I hope she and Pryor do "pull a Thad Cochran" and somehow win their races, but it's a lot easier for moderate Republicans to build last minute Black support than it would be for moderate Democrats to create a last minute coalition including conservative Whites in 2014.  Nevertheless, I like the campaign Mary is running and I'm hoping we can somehow send her and Pryor back to the senate while still having a GOP majority.

If it goes to a runoff which determines control of the senate, the race moves to Likely Republican. I agree with you, in a perfect world Republicans take control of the senate while Landrieu and Pryor keep their seats.

Which, actually isn't that far removed of a scenario.  To do this the GOP would have to win SD, MT and WV as well as NC and AK with at least one win between CO, IA, MI, NH or VA.  That can certainly be done given the national environment, but Louisiana and Arkansas are likely to "come along for the ride" in the event of a good GOP year. 
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bronz4141
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« Reply #11 on: July 25, 2014, 08:54:48 pm »
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I see Landrieu pulling a small victory, but right now it leads Cassidy.
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« Reply #12 on: July 27, 2014, 04:26:56 pm »
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Landrieu will win this race. Her bro Mitch has excellent approvals in New Orleans which her base African Americans may have no trouble GOTV.

In 2002, they still couldnt win the runoff with a popular prez. Nate Silver just predicted a 51-49 senate with Landrieu, Hagen and Begich winning.

Lol Obama won over 80% of the vote in New Orleans and still got crushed in Louisiana. Landrieu also has a approval rating under 40% statewide.
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« Reply #13 on: July 27, 2014, 06:13:55 pm »
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Nate Silver just predicted a 51-49 senate with Landrieu, Hagen and Begich winning.

Link?
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« Reply #14 on: Today at 11:06:15 am »
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The U.S. Chamber of Commerce will reportedly support Landrieu.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/chamber-of-commerce-mary-landrieu
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