Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
January 24, 2017, 08:34:43 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Be sure to enable your "Ultimate Profile" for even more goodies on your profile page!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Congressional Elections (Moderator: Brittain33)
| | |-+  Any chance Dems could pull a Senate upset in Nebr or Mississippi in 2018?
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] Print
Author Topic: Any chance Dems could pull a Senate upset in Nebr or Mississippi in 2018?  (Read 443 times)
Figueira
84285
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7054


View Profile
« Reply #25 on: Today at 01:51:22 pm »
Ignore

This is the sort of map the democrats have to pull off to win NE:



(51-49 senate victory from 2000)



I doubt the map would look like that nowadays. Sarpy County would vote Democratic, and I think a lot of those rural counties would vote Republican.
Logged

Note: I am not actually British.

Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12440
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.29, S: 0.70

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #26 on: Today at 02:04:07 pm »
Ignore

This is the sort of map the democrats have to pull off to win NE:



(51-49 senate victory from 2000)



I doubt the map would look like that nowadays. Sarpy County would vote Democratic, and I think a lot of those rural counties would vote Republican.

In order to win Nebraska, Democrats would have to win some rural counties. Not enough urban vote in the state to do it on urban areas alone.
Logged

We must keep the electoral college. It is the best system for a large country like ours:





-------

If you live in a state with a republican senator, please call them and ask them to keep Obamacare! We only need three Republican votes to save it!
Jimmie
jamespol
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4365


View Profile
« Reply #27 on: Today at 02:23:54 pm »
Ignore

Wulfric is one of those 2016 forever people. There has always been a cult on Atlas that bases EVERY future election result from Presidential vote to City Council district solely on the last general result until the end of time.

I HATE those people, LOL.  They're such political nerds - and annoyingly young - that they want to talk, talk and talk some more about the *current coalitions* and *PVI* and other things that demand a lot more nuance than they ever give them.

Yea. I mean trends, pvi, demographics DO make a difference but not as much as you would think. And I think that matters the most on the presidential level. A little less on the Senate level and a lot less on the Gubernatorial level and below.

Like I think we could see for some time that Ohio and Iowa could well vote Republican for President but I would think either of those states could elect or re-elect a Democratic Senator or Governor. Georgia will likely go Democratic in the next Democratic electoral college victory but Republicans will likely hold the state legislature for a while. If you believe exit polls, the incumbent Republican Senator got a respectable amount of the black vote in Georgia. Michigan and Pennsylvania are not part of a so-called blue wall but they may lean a bit Democratic in the future. Still very contestable states though.

Also since I have been political aware I have seen a lot of changes. From the 2004 election of Bush which people assumed we could only win with a Warner-Bayh ticket in 2008. Democrats won with Obama in 2008 and probably would have won with Sanders in 2016. That does not mean we should have a Sanders type candidate in 2020. That would be especially true if Trump's anti free trade stance throws us into a recession.
Logged

It's become a tradition to say that the party that loses is doomed.

2004: The Democrats are done for! They're just a coastal party now!

2008: The Republicans are done for! They're just a Southern party now!

2010: Obama is done for in 2012!

2012: The Republicans are done for! They're just a Southern party now!

2016: The Democrats are done for! They're just a coastal party now!
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 26154
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -6.96

View Profile
« Reply #28 on: Today at 03:07:04 pm »
Ignore

NEVER is an awfully strong word - I think a lot of us would've said "no Democrat was ever going to win statewide again" about Louisiana as late as September 2015.
Logged
Figueira
84285
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7054


View Profile
« Reply #29 on: Today at 04:08:55 pm »
Ignore

This is the sort of map the democrats have to pull off to win NE:



(51-49 senate victory from 2000)



I doubt the map would look like that nowadays. Sarpy County would vote Democratic, and I think a lot of those rural counties would vote Republican.

In order to win Nebraska, Democrats would have to win some rural counties. Not enough urban vote in the state to do it on urban areas alone.

Some rural counties, certainly, but probably not all of the ones on the map.
Logged

Note: I am not actually British.

Figueira
84285
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7054


View Profile
« Reply #30 on: Today at 04:27:44 pm »
Ignore

With a universal swing from 2016, Democrats can actually win Nebrsska with only six counties: Douglas, Sarpy, Lancaster, Saline, Thurston, and Dakota. That said, universal swings don't exist so I'm not sure if that's actually the most likely winning map.
Logged

Note: I am not actually British.

ProspectiveNavyMan
Mizzouian
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 392


View Profile
« Reply #31 on: Today at 07:59:47 pm »
Ignore

NEVER is an awfully strong word - I think a lot of us would've said "no Democrat was ever going to win statewide again" about Louisiana as late as September 2015.
RT from my comment in another thread.
Logged

Ithaca via O'Fallon
AKCreative
Nyvin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1805
United States



View Profile
« Reply #32 on: Today at 08:24:27 pm »
Ignore

This is the sort of map the democrats have to pull off to win NE:



(51-49 senate victory from 2000)



I doubt the map would look like that nowadays. Sarpy County would vote Democratic, and I think a lot of those rural counties would vote Republican.

In order to win Nebraska, Democrats would have to win some rural counties. Not enough urban vote in the state to do it on urban areas alone.

Actually Douglas, Lancaster, and Sarpy counties together make up ~53% of the state's population.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines