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Author Topic: Early voting, absentee requests & statistics  (Read 4205 times)
Vox Populi
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« Reply #125 on: October 28, 2014, 06:58:45 pm »
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Yesterday was indeed a horrible return day for Democrats.

The day was roughly 42-31 R/D, pushing up the overall R-lead from 10.4% to 10.5%.

That needs to pick up.

Does anyone know if CO is now all vote-by-mail, or is it possible to vote on election day as well ?

I think you "vote" on election day by bringing your mail-in ballot to the polls. It should be all by mail in this cycle.

No, there really are no "polls." You can take your ballot to your county clerk's office or to one of your county's "vote centers," which is usually just a box inside government offices.

Friday is the last day to safely mail ballots, otherwise they must be delivered in person. I think that Denver County has drive-by drop sites. Other counties probably do the sane, especially early next week.

Really ?

Do voters who register on election day have to vote in these handful of "centers" as well ?

Well, I honestly don't know. This is all new. I think you probably have to go to the clerk's office because they should be the only ones who can issue ballots. You can register on Election Day even online, but unless the clerk sets up little offices at drop sites, how could they issue ballots? This whole thing is so odd.

I live overseas now so I was able to fax in my ballot. You could also email them your ballot. Gotta love these new laws.

I will say that a lot of people don't know what the hell is going on. I know this is anecdotal but my mother (who is generally fairly politically savvy, at least compared to most people) wasn't aware that you couldn't "vote" on election day like usual.

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Wulfric
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« Reply #126 on: October 28, 2014, 07:34:20 pm »
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Doing all mail voting is interesting.

So essentially we have a good idea on how a race is looking by looking at the numbers come in each day? And we will find out the results right when polls close?

These numbers give you a fairly good idea, but not an exact picture - they don't tell you how many gardner democrats/udall republicans there are, and don't tell you how independents voted.

As far as reporting on election night goes, it's not like there's going to be 100% of the vote in 10 minutes after poll closing or something ridiculous like that, but the reporting speed should be pretty fast. For what it's worth, Oregon had all mail balloting in 2012 and had about 40% of the vote in just 15 minutes after poll closing.
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2014 Election Analysis (Last Updated 10/29)
House Majority: Safe Republican
Senate Analysis: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1P4ZVwqad-wGL8AkJttKX0KC5nR1Vosm55-7rwwKm3vc
Gubernatorial Analysis: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1A1mu7pFB0ToHuKAC2K_iu_cFbRlM7qRMGeFblSgRuDU



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« Reply #127 on: October 28, 2014, 08:39:44 pm »
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Of course if Colorado is anything like Washington in its all vote-by-mail ballot counting, we'll be at like 75% of the vote counted on Wednesday morning.
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At the very least, this turn of events seems to validate my prediction that Americans are ready and willing to fully embrace fascism.
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« Reply #128 on: October 29, 2014, 07:39:36 am »
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Nevada: Widening GOP lead in Clark and Washoe, ditto Senate battlegrounds.
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« Reply #129 on: October 29, 2014, 08:31:04 am »
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Georgia, ballots cast:

(Figures with "(^)" next to them indicate group as a % of early voters is consistently increasing)
(All 2014 early voting totals are through Sunday, 10/26; 2010 totals are for entire early vote period)

Georgia is looking quite good for Democrats so far. There has been an seven-point swing thus far in early voting turnout by likely party when compared to 2010 (!!), with it being likely that the number will continue to improve for Democrats over the remainder of this week, if historical trends are any indicator. The number of unknown affiliated being slightly higher is potentially an indicator that there are more first-time voters voting early.

By race, blacks are two percentage points more of the electorate than they were in 2010, and that number will also continue to increase. In 2010, blacks were 29% of EVs and the final number was 28%, suggesting that the total black share of the electorate in 2014 could very well be 30-31%.

The female percentage of the vote is still a bit below 2010 numbers but steadily increasing, and is on track to meet or surpass 2010 numbers. The current breakdowns by age when compared to 2010 are the least optimistic, but thankfully in Georgia (at least in this case), voting preference by age is relatively uniform across the board.

...

I just realized with the most recent update that I had some suppression features enabled in the voter file system that was excluding roughly 40,000 people from the counts (LOL, who am I: the Secretary of State?). This explains the 100,000-vote jump between yesterday's update (Monday) and today's (Tuesday). These numbers are insane compared to four years ago, and look much better than even yesterday (in part because the suppressions are now gone).

Quote
2010 Early Voting Totals:
Total Votes Cast: 678,939
White: 66.5%
Black: 29.0%
Other: 3.6%
Asian: 0.5%
Latino: 0.4%

2014 Early Voting Totals:
Total Votes Cast: 521,587
White: 62.3%
Black: 32.0% (^^)
Other: 4.7% (^^)
Latino: 0.5%
Asian: 0.5%

Quote
Early Vote by Gender, 2010:
Female: 55.1%
Male: 44.9%

Early Vote by Gender, 2014:
Female: 54.6% (^)
Male: 45.4%

Quote
Early Vote by Likely Party, 2010:
Likely Democrat: 36.4%
Likely Republican: 43.1%
Likely Independent: 5.2%
Unknown: 13.8%

Early Vote by Likely Party, 2014:
Likely Democrat: 40.4% (^)
Likely Republican: 39.2%
Likely Independent: 5.2%
Unknown: 15.2%

Quote
Early Vote by Age, 2010:
18-30: 5.4%
31-50: 24.4%
51-64: 32.2%
65+: 38.0%

Early Vote by Age, 2014:
18-30: 4.4% (^)
31-50: 18.0% (^)
51-64: 33.3%
65+: 44.3%
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Miles
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« Reply #130 on: October 29, 2014, 08:40:08 am »
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Louisiana: With early voting finished, 236K votes were cast. Thats double the voters that were cast early in 2010, 80% 2008 and about 2/3 of 2012.

The overall race total was 64.6% white 32.8% black. The partisan split was 52.5 D 34 R 13.5 I.
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« Reply #131 on: October 29, 2014, 09:00:39 am »
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Louisiana: With early voting finished, 236K votes were cast. Thats double the voters that were cast early in 2010, 80% 2008 and about 2/3 of 2012.

The overall race total was 64.6% white 32.8% black. The partisan split was 52.5 D 34 R 13.5 I.

How do the stats by race compare to 4 years ago in early voting?
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« Reply #132 on: October 29, 2014, 09:59:31 am »
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Yesterday was indeed a horrible return day for Democrats.

The day was roughly 42-31 R/D, pushing up the overall R-lead from 10.4% to 10.5%.

That needs to pick up.

Does anyone know if CO is now all vote-by-mail, or is it possible to vote on election day as well ?

I think you "vote" on election day by bringing your mail-in ballot to the polls. It should be all by mail in this cycle.

No, there really are no "polls." You can take your ballot to your county clerk's office or to one of your county's "vote centers," which is usually just a box inside government offices.

Friday is the last day to safely mail ballots, otherwise they must be delivered in person. I think that Denver County has drive-by drop sites. Other counties probably do the sane, especially early next week.

Really ?

Do voters who register on election day have to vote in these handful of "centers" as well ?

Well, I honestly don't know. This is all new. I think you probably have to go to the clerk's office because they should be the only ones who can issue ballots. You can register on Election Day even online, but unless the clerk sets up little offices at drop sites, how could they issue ballots? This whole thing is so odd.

I live overseas now so I was able to fax in my ballot. You could also email them your ballot. Gotta love these new laws.

I will say that a lot of people don't know what the hell is going on. I know this is anecdotal but my mother (who is generally fairly politically savvy, at least compared to most people) wasn't aware that you couldn't "vote" on election day like usual.



I guess it was only a matter of time before emailing you ballot.  I'm almost surprised that they wouldn't let you Tweet it.
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Miles
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« Reply #133 on: October 29, 2014, 10:13:44 am »
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^ Going with my LA stats:

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Lief
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« Reply #134 on: October 29, 2014, 10:47:21 am »
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Colorado as of today:

Republicans: 41.9%
Democrats: 32.5%
Unaffiliated: 24.5%

Looks like Democrats finally have some momentum!
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At the very least, this turn of events seems to validate my prediction that Americans are ready and willing to fully embrace fascism.
I dreamed about Lief spanking Rand Paul.
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« Reply #135 on: October 29, 2014, 10:49:23 am »
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Colorado 10/29 update.

Nearly 50% of the expected electorate has already voted.

Total votes: 905,500

Republicans: 379,250 (42%)
Democrats: 294,648 (33%)
Unaffiliated: 222,043 (25%)

Democrats now trail Republicans by 9.3 percentage points, which is better for them than yesterday, but still a poor showing overall.
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« Reply #136 on: October 29, 2014, 11:11:20 am »
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CO Trend:

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« Reply #137 on: October 29, 2014, 12:32:15 pm »
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Souls to the polls. 53% of everyone who voted early in Georgia on Sunday were black. 40% were white.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/30/upshot/data-from-sunday-points-to-black-churches-role-in-mobilizing-voters.html?rref=upshot&_r=0&abt=0002&abg=0
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« Reply #138 on: October 29, 2014, 12:34:28 pm »
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I just posted an update on GA, but the voter file just updated on my end with Tuesday's totals, so here's another summarized version:

607,569 voters
Black share steady (32.0%)
White share steady (62.3%)

Democrats slightly down (40.0%)
Republicans steady (39.2%)
Unknowns rising strongly (14.5%)

Females up (54.9%)

Large increase of 31-50 year-olds (18.8%)
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« Reply #139 on: Today at 06:37:54 am »
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The MDP rolled out an initiative to turn out normally unlikely voters by really pushing absentee voting this year. So far, the results look promising!

http://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2014/10/29/snyder-schauer-virtual-tie/18132579/
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« Reply #140 on: Today at 11:16:58 am »
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Colorado Republicans maintain strong lead.

Colorado update 10/30: 50 to 60 percent of expected electorate has voted

Total ballots: 1,038,023

Republicans: 431,711 (41.6%) (2010: 39.5%)
Democrats: 336,908 (32.4%) (2010: 33.6%)
Unaffiliated: 269,404 (26%) (2010: 26.9%)

My thoughts:

In 2010 Republicans had a roughly six-point advantage, and in 2012 that advantage was only two points.  I don’t expect the nine-point lead to hold, but I have to think that even an electorate similar to 2010 would be a disaster for Democrats.

I’ll point out that right now the state’s three Democratic congressional districts are actually outperforming their 2010 totals, which means that the Democratic GOTV is obviously at work.  Colorado’s four GOP congressional districts are all either performing at or below 2010 levels relative to the electorate this year as a whole.  And still Republicans are leading by nine.  In other words, I doubt that Democrats will be able to run up totals in Boulder (CD-2) and Denver (CD-1) any more than they already are. 

Right now Republicans have a larger vote advantage over Democrats than they did at the end of the 2010 election. Republicans are voting at a roughly 9% higher rate than Democrats right now, and they have been at or around that level for nearly the entire voting period.  I am beginning to wonder if this is simply what the electorate will be this year.  I expect the GOP’s nine-point lead to diminish somewhat, but Republicans are simply voting at such numbers that Democrats appear unable to catch them and bring margins down significantly.  Democrats won’t really have Election Day to rack up big totals, either, since this election is all-mail balloting.  Same-day voter registration may enable Democrats to hit college campuses with new registrations, but an extra 10,000 votes will only drop the margins about .5% relative to the whole electorate. 

By the way, I’ll just point out that I am not even certain that we’ll reach 2 million votes this year, which is what most estimates have been.  The 2010 election had 1.8 million and 2012 had 2.5 million, and I suspect we’ll get somewhere between 1.8 and 2.0 million. 

Here is a great layout of the vote so far:
http://www.magellanstrategies.com/#!colorado-2014-vote-returns/c118p
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