Wulfric is one of those 2016 forever people. There has always been a cult on Atlas that bases EVERY future election result from Presidential vote to City Council district solely on the last general result until the end of time.
I HATE those people, LOL. They're such political nerds - and annoyingly young - that they want to talk, talk and talk some more about the *current coalitions* and *PVI* and other things that demand a lot more nuance than they ever give them.
Yea. I mean trends, pvi, demographics DO make a difference but not as much as you would think. And I think that matters the most on the presidential level. A little less on the Senate level and a lot less on the Gubernatorial level and below.
Like I think we could see for some time that Ohio and Iowa could well vote Republican for President but I would think either of those states could elect or re-elect a Democratic Senator or Governor. Georgia will likely go Democratic in the next Democratic electoral college victory but Republicans will likely hold the state legislature for a while. If you believe exit polls, the incumbent Republican Senator got a respectable amount of the black vote in Georgia. Michigan and Pennsylvania are not part of a so-called blue wall but they may lean a bit Democratic in the future. Still very contestable states though.
Also since I have been political aware I have seen a lot of changes. From the 2004 election of Bush which people assumed we could only win with a Warner-Bayh ticket in 2008. Democrats won with Obama in 2008 and probably would have won with Sanders in 2016. That does not mean we should have a Sanders type candidate in 2020. That would be especially true if Trump's anti free trade stance throws us into a recession.