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November 27, 2014, 07:25:11 pm
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Author Topic: Random question about 2016/2018  (Read 170 times)
Illuminati Blood Drinker
phwezer
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« on: November 24, 2014, 01:34:30 am »
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The Democrats are going into 2016 with a favorable Senate map, though of course there's no guarantee they take it. If they do take it, the 2018 map is already favorable for the GOP even without it being a midterm year, so if the Democrats do take back the Senate in 2016 they'll probably lose it right back in 2018.

My question is, has this ever happened before? That is, one party losing the majority in either house, winning it back in the subsequent election, and promptly losing it again in the election after that? Thanks.
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SilentCal1924
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« Reply #1 on: November 24, 2014, 04:14:21 am »
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The closest example I have is 1946-1952. Or if you prefer 1998-2002.

Republicans took Congress in 1946, lost it in 1948, and regained it in 1952.  They lost it in 1954. In 2000 the Republicans controlled the Senate 51-50 but lost it in June 2001 and regained it in 2002. 
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Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #2 on: Today at 06:58:48 pm »
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The 1880's had a lot of flipping back and forth until 1894 when the GOP put both chambers away for a next sixteen years.

Favorable versus unfavorable maps are not the end all be all. There are two factors that determine the favorableness of the map (the number from each party up and the regional distribution). Whether or not the map is favorable can limit the gains (like 2010 where the GOP had one path to a majority and needed to run the table through states as Democratic as Delaware and WA to win) or accentuate them (1980 and 2004). Still we have seen two examples of the GOP overcoming the map to make gains (2010 Senate and 2014 Governor) and the regional distribution means that in 2016, sixteen of those 24 Senate seats are safe or Likely GOP and therefore barring a rather Democratic year, the Republicans will still end up higher then they were before 2014 (minimum 46 and that would include Burr, Portman and Rubio losing, which isn't happening).
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