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Author Topic: When will Democrats win back the House?  (Read 829 times)
OC
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« Reply #25 on: May 25, 2015, 04:10:26 pm »
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The presidential race is leaning Democrat, although it is hard to predict, the Dems can catch a wave here; in 2016. The Senate would be lost to the GOP; and make gains in the House
« Last Edit: May 25, 2015, 04:14:53 pm by OC »Logged
Del Tachi
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« Reply #26 on: May 25, 2015, 04:19:14 pm »
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I'll go out on a limb and say 2018. 

In the middle of a Republican administration's disastrous first-term in office, the Democrats are able to net the 30-something sets they need to get to 218.  They accomplish this by winning most of the typically marginal seats as well as knocking-off some GOP royalty in American suburbia (i.e., Peter Roskam, Mike Coffman).   
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« Reply #27 on: May 25, 2015, 04:25:46 pm »
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I'll go out on a limb and say 2018. 

In the middle of a Republican administration's disastrous first-term in office, the Democrats are able to net the 30-something sets they need to get to 218.  They accomplish this by winning most of the typically marginal seats as well as knocking-off some GOP royalty in American suburbia (i.e., Peter Roskam, Mike Coffman).   

Del Tachi, I've noticed you're one of the few people predicting a 2016 GOP win; what rationale do you have for that conclusion?
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Only neoliberals accurately report crime stats.
in general, please lighten up a little bit and stop allowing the actions of some nerd typing on a keyboard hundreds of miles away from you to affect you on such a personal level
Computer09
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« Reply #28 on: May 25, 2015, 05:28:36 pm »
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2016 - Democrats make 2-5 gain win white House
2018: Democrats lose 6-12 seats
2020: Democrats lose 15-20 more seats and white house(and lose chance for redistricting)

After 2020 the Republicans will hold between 263-277 seats in the House

2022: Democrats make 10-15 seat gain

2024: Republican retain white house and gain 10-12 seats

2026: Democrats make a 30-35 seat gain

Entering 2028:  Republicans will hold between 228- 249 seats in the house( most likely in between that)   

So If Dems win in 2016(80% happening) they are certainly  locked out of the house for the next decade.

Now 2028 if Republicans win Dems have a chance of recapturing 2030 , if Dems win they can possibly take back the house if there is a 2008 style wave(likely not), but they will likely just miss taking back the house and get crushed in 2030 and lose the house for another decade.

Only way I see Democrats take back the house within 20 years

A. Republicans win in 2016 and get all the blame for troubles which will happen the next four years

B: Republicans pull of three consecutive victories between 2020-2028 and Democrats take back house in a wave in 2030

C.  Republicans President by 2028 is as unpopular as W Bush was in 2008

D: Realignment

Other then that I dont see them taking back the house until the 2040s.


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JOHN KASICH 2016

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Del Tachi
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« Reply #29 on: May 25, 2015, 05:45:47 pm »
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I'll go out on a limb and say 2018. 

In the middle of a Republican administration's disastrous first-term in office, the Democrats are able to net the 30-something sets they need to get to 218.  They accomplish this by winning most of the typically marginal seats as well as knocking-off some GOP royalty in American suburbia (i.e., Peter Roskam, Mike Coffman).   

Del Tachi, I've noticed you're one of the few people predicting a 2016 GOP win; what rationale do you have for that conclusion?

Hillary Clinton's not good on the stump, President Obama will be wildly unpopular amidst a economic downturn, and Scott Walker is the perfect candidate to triangulate a GOP victory by appealing to SoCons, Tea Partiers, and the neocons.

Hillary would make a great president, its just that 3rd terms for a single party are the exception rather than the rule.     
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OC
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« Reply #30 on: May 25, 2015, 05:48:48 pm »
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Dems will have at least 200 members; this election cycle

2020 is conceivable or later; but not decades. And as long as Dems hold that number going into redistricting; other 17 seats will become electable. The ones that were targetted in 2014.
« Last Edit: May 25, 2015, 06:01:22 pm by OC »Logged
RFayette
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« Reply #31 on: May 25, 2015, 06:05:35 pm »
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I'll go out on a limb and say 2018. 

In the middle of a Republican administration's disastrous first-term in office, the Democrats are able to net the 30-something sets they need to get to 218.  They accomplish this by winning most of the typically marginal seats as well as knocking-off some GOP royalty in American suburbia (i.e., Peter Roskam, Mike Coffman).   

Del Tachi, I've noticed you're one of the few people predicting a 2016 GOP win; what rationale do you have for that conclusion?

Hillary Clinton's not good on the stump, President Obama will be wildly unpopular amidst a economic downturn, and Scott Walker is the perfect candidate to triangulate a GOP victory by appealing to SoCons, Tea Partiers, and the neocons.

Hillary would make a great president, its just that 3rd terms for a single party are the exception rather than the rule.     

This is where we disagree.  I tend to think we'd hit a recession sometime around 2018-2020.  Is there any evidence a recession is upcoming at this point?
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Only neoliberals accurately report crime stats.
in general, please lighten up a little bit and stop allowing the actions of some nerd typing on a keyboard hundreds of miles away from you to affect you on such a personal level
Nyvin
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« Reply #32 on: May 25, 2015, 06:12:41 pm »
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After 2020 the Republicans will hold between 263-277 seats in the House

If you look over the numbers 277 Republican held seats is pretty much impossible,  you'd be talking about winning around 15-20 D+4 or above seats.     There aren't that many D+1 or D+2 seats in the country.   
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #33 on: May 25, 2015, 07:13:17 pm »
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After 2020 the Republicans will hold between 263-277 seats in the House

If you look over the numbers 277 Republican held seats is pretty much impossible,  you'd be talking about winning around 15-20 D+4 or above seats.     There aren't that many D+1 or D+2 seats in the country.   

I think Republicans already hold most of the D+1/D+2 seats that exist.
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Computer09
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« Reply #34 on: May 25, 2015, 11:23:04 pm »
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After 2020 the Republicans will hold between 263-277 seats in the House

If you look over the numbers 277 Republican held seats is pretty much impossible,  you'd be talking about winning around 15-20 D+4 or above seats.     There aren't that many D+1 or D+2 seats in the country.   

I think Republicans already hold most of the D+1/D+2 seats that exist.

2016-2020 will be similar time period to 1976-1980, whoever wins in 2016 will cause their party to be crushed by a realignment in 2020.
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JOHN KASICH 2016

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tara gilesbie
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« Reply #35 on: May 25, 2015, 11:41:38 pm »
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After 2020 the Republicans will hold between 263-277 seats in the House

If you look over the numbers 277 Republican held seats is pretty much impossible,  you'd be talking about winning around 15-20 D+4 or above seats.     There aren't that many D+1 or D+2 seats in the country.   

I think Republicans already hold most of the D+1/D+2 seats that exist.

2016-2020 will be similar time period to 1976-1980, whoever wins in 2016 will cause their party to be crushed by a realignment in 2020.

Why?
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Suddenly, there was a loud boom. We looked out the window and saw a whole bunch of Death Eaters running into the castle! Umbridge screamed and dropped her teacup on the floor! Lucius burst into the office, along with Fenrir, Bellatrix and Ron.

"How COULD you!" Umbridge shrieked. "I thought we had a deal! We did a pinky swear, remember?"

"I had my fingers crossed behind my back," Lucius explained smugly.

"Damn the loopholes," yelled Umbridge!
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« Reply #36 on: May 25, 2015, 11:46:27 pm »
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After 2020 the Republicans will hold between 263-277 seats in the House

If you look over the numbers 277 Republican held seats is pretty much impossible,  you'd be talking about winning around 15-20 D+4 or above seats.     There aren't that many D+1 or D+2 seats in the country.   

I think Republicans already hold most of the D+1/D+2 seats that exist.

2016-2020 will be similar time period to 1976-1980, whoever wins in 2016 will cause their party to be crushed by a realignment in 2020.

Why?
Nothing he says makes any sense.
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