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April 16, 2014, 11:00:11 pm
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| | |-+  Generic Congressional Ballot Polls Thread
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Author Topic: Generic Congressional Ballot Polls Thread  (Read 1210 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: January 09, 2014, 02:20:23 am »
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So we don't need to create a thread all the time if a poll pops up ...

QUINNIPIAC:

1. If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or for the Democratic candidate in your district?

38-37 GOP

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

41-53 disapprove

7. If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States Senate?

46-42 GOP

8. If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States House of Representatives?

46-44 GOP

From January 4 - 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,487 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=1993
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L0V3Batman
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« Reply #1 on: January 15, 2014, 01:16:29 pm »
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Odd turn of events when Rasmussen favors the Dems. I'm curious as to whether or not they're becoming a Democratic-leaning outlier. There's a 10 point gap between the approval ratings in Gallup and Rasmussen.

Rasmussen Reports

1. Generic Congressional Ballot (January 6th-12th)

41-37 Democrats

2. Obama Approval Rating

50-49 Approve (January 15th)
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: January 15, 2014, 04:46:40 pm »
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Odd turn of events when Rasmussen favors the Dems. I'm curious as to whether or not they're becoming a Democratic-leaning outlier. There's a 10 point gap between the approval ratings in Gallup and Rasmussen.

Rasmussen Reports

1. Generic Congressional Ballot (January 6th-12th)

41-37 Democrats

2. Obama Approval Rating

50-49 Approve (January 15th)

There change in leanings seems to connected to Scotty leaving.
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Anyways everything else about it looks good, here's to the new alter-ego of the Progressive Union!
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« Reply #3 on: January 20, 2014, 05:52:22 pm »
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Rasmussen: D+6

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

#Dominating
#ExcellentNews
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Miles
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« Reply #4 on: January 26, 2014, 12:40:53 am »
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ABC/WaPo: Rs leads 46-45.
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Miles
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« Reply #5 on: January 27, 2014, 07:42:29 pm »
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I don't understand how Rassy has Hagan down 7 but also has Democrats leading 42-37 on the generic ballot.
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Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #6 on: January 27, 2014, 11:41:40 pm »
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Over-correction maybe?
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Miles
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« Reply #7 on: January 28, 2014, 04:00:09 pm »
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PPP: 42-40 R.
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Miles
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« Reply #8 on: February 04, 2014, 12:03:36 pm »
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Big swing for Rasmussen; Republicans +1.
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Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #9 on: February 04, 2014, 06:41:04 pm »
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Really starting to get a "mimic other pollsters" feel out of Rassy.
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« Reply #10 on: March 11, 2014, 07:07:05 pm »
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PPP finds a 3-point Dem lead: 43-40 but given their disastrous new methodology take this with a mountain of salt.
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Miles
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« Reply #11 on: March 11, 2014, 11:58:50 pm »
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NBC/WSJ: A Democrat who favors fixing the ACA beats a Republican who opposes it 48-47.

Too bad an actual Republican who favors repeal beat an actual Democrat who favors fixing it 49-47. Tongue

Voters narrowly want a Republican Congress, 44-43.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #12 on: March 25, 2014, 11:42:48 am »
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New George Washington University Battleground poll for POLITICO:

43% GOP
43% DEM

Quote
Republican pollster Ed Goeas and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake released their survey at a breakfast hosted by The Christian Science Monitor.

“This race could be very, very competitive,” Goeas said, but added, “I view this data giving the edge even more to Republicans.”

Among people who say they’re extremely likely to vote, Republicans had a 5-percentage-point advantage.

“The biggest challenge for the Democrats is turnout,” Lake warned, calling it “really dramatic this time.”

The pollsters pointed to the recent special election in Florida’s 13th congressional district. Voters elected Republican candidate David Jolly by a few percentage points in a highly competitive race against Democrat Alex Sink.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/house-races/201624-democrats-neck-in-neck-with-republicans-on-generic-2014-ballot
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #13 on: April 05, 2014, 04:00:07 pm »
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Using the data from the 2012 elections, I've made this map of the Mid Western states

and have highlighted those with a lead of less than 2.5%. Can these be called "battlegrounds" or is there more to it than that?
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #14 on: April 05, 2014, 04:15:39 pm »
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Using the data from the 2012 elections, I've made this map of the Mid Western states

and have highlighted those with a lead of less than 2.5%. Can these be called "battlegrounds" or is there more to it than that?
In America, yeah there is more to it.  If someone retires from a certain seat, it can become competitive or uncompetitive.  It is up to a point up to the candidates running.
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« Reply #15 on: April 06, 2014, 05:08:30 am »
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Using the data from the 2012 elections, I've made this map of the Mid Western states

and have highlighted those with a lead of less than 2.5%. Can these be called "battlegrounds" or is there more to it than that?
In America, yeah there is more to it.  If someone retires from a certain seat, it can become competitive or uncompetitive.  It is up to a point up to the candidates running.

^ As Jerry says, you have to consider more than the ostensible numbers.

MN-06 is now Safe R. Bachmann is retiring. She was an extremely flawed and controversial Republican who almost lost in 2012; a sane Republican will have an easy time holding the seat.

I'd trade NE-02 and IN-02 for OH-14 and IA-03.
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« Reply #16 on: April 06, 2014, 06:51:28 pm »
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AP poll points to GOP edge ahead of midterms

By Kate Tummarello
April 06, 2014, 04:22 pm


According to the poll, which was conducted last month, 36 percent of respondents would rather see Democrats controlling Congress, while 37 percent said they would refer Republicans be in charge.

This is a change from a poll in January, when 39 percent of respondents said they wanted Democrats to control Congress, and 32 percent said they favored Republicans.

Voters who are most strongly interested in politics are more likely to favor Republicans, according to the poll, with 51 percent favoring Republicans and 37 percent favoring Democrats.

Overall, the Republican Party is viewed more favorably than it has been in the past, with 38 percent of respondents saying they “hold a favorable impression” of the GOP, the poll found.
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Read more: http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/202778-ap-poll-points-to-gop-edge#ixzz2y9ZECqhh


« Last Edit: April 06, 2014, 06:54:36 pm by Frodo »Logged

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« Reply #17 on: April 06, 2014, 07:05:23 pm »
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I don't think the public has fully paid attention yet. And there is a delayed response to Obamacare news. The GOP has the edge in House but in statewide elections Govs and Senate, chance for Dems.
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