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April 27, 2017, 11:38:01 pm
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|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Virginia)
| | |-+  Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (5/2: SC-5 Primary)
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Author Topic: Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (5/2: SC-5 Primary)  (Read 15614 times)
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« Reply #850 on: April 23, 2017, 12:30:26 pm »
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I forget the results in his first race, but Cohen won in his primaries in a landslide every time he sought re-election in TN-9.

Cohen won 30-25-12 in his first primary. AFTER that he really won convincingly (the closest being 66-32), but was primaried every election.

P.S. Well, i literally quoted North Florida columnist from Pensacola..

- Right, but he sailed through the primaries every time, winning landslide victories without breaking a sweat (against the 2006 runner-up, a former Memphis Mayor, and the President of the Memphis Urban League among others).

- That phrase is the sort of clever albeit highly over-simplified one-line that tends to make for a memorable line and decidedly flawed analysis.  There are conservative areas in south Florida (ex: Lee County) and liberal areas of northern Florida (ex: Leon County).  The fact is that the only area of Florida one could really argue is really more northern than southern is the gold coast.

- P.S.: Writing random words in all-caps or bolding them doesn't make your argument more persuasive.  I understand what you're saying perfectly well; I just think it's an oversimplification that could lead to faulty political analysis.
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« Reply #851 on: April 23, 2017, 03:03:13 pm »
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^ Well, as i already said - let's agree to disagree and respect each other opinions...
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Raging moderate. Big fan of "mavericks" (in all parties) and big non-lover of "reliable foot soldiers" (in all parties as well). Very much "anti-tea party". Political Matrix - E: -0.26, S: -3.48. Like to collect bans on partisan sites (4-5 on DKE (+ SSP) and on RRH).
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« Reply #852 on: April 23, 2017, 04:13:29 pm »
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Who's who for thé SC-5 candidates?

For the Dems: Parnell is a Goldman Sachs executive, Frank is a student and army veteran (and African American), Murphy is a marine veteran who now works for the non-profit Carolina Veterans Commission. Essentially, uninspiring candidates that leave little hope for anti-trump forces, unless one of these is really good at campaigning.

As a rule - i don't believe in African American candidates winning majority white southern districts... There are some rare exceptions on state legislative level, but mostly the vote is too polarized by race.  IMHO, even with Trump this is a closest to Safe R special..

Sanford Bishop would like a word.

His district is about 50-50.  Compare this with SC-05. Democrats need districts to be 40-45% Black minimum, and pray, that 10-15% of whites will still vote Democratic, to have a chance. How many such districts exist? Even Bishop won his district narrowly couple of times (2010, 1996, 2000)..

All I'm saying is that, and I mean this as constructive criticism, you tend to generalize a lot (sometimes you're right, other times you're way off) and it might not be the worst idea to allow for the possibility of exceptions a bit more often.  

Well, if you show me recent examples of such biracial coalition (not pre-2010, but after it, when polarization soared, including - racial one) - i may reconsider my position. Bit so far - i stick to it... It's extremely difficult to elect Black candidate in white-majority Southern districts now. I can fathom that say, in Southern Florida or Research Triangle (which are more or less "non-siuthern" politically), but not in many ither places.. In "typical" southern districts correlation between Democratc aand Black percentages is very strong...

Senator Tim Scott says hi, both as Senator from South Carolina and Congressman from SC-1.  

Not all African-Americans are Democrats.  It is perfectly possible for a black Republican to win in the South a majority white district.

This is true. There are some African-American Republican politicians who enjoy white support. Though almost all African American voters are indeed Democrats.
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Your self-serving slacktivism is propelling America to new heights.
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