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October 31, 2014, 05:50:41 am
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|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Congressional Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  Generic Congressional Ballot Polls Thread
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Author Topic: Generic Congressional Ballot Polls Thread  (Read 8235 times)
morgieb
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« Reply #150 on: October 30, 2014, 03:40:29 pm »
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WTF is up with the Congressional Ballot being so mixed?
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IceSpear
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E: -5.55, S: -6.09

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« Reply #151 on: October 30, 2014, 04:19:18 pm »
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WTF is up with the Congressional Ballot being so mixed?

I have no idea, it's extremely strange. In the past couple weeks we've gotten:

Pew: D+1
FOX: D+1
USA Today: D+1
CNN: D+1

CBS: R+8
WaPo: R+6
AP: R+8

The fact that there's clearly two distinct groups showing vastly different things is starting to make me think that "averaging" them may not be the best strategy. It could just be that one group is going to be right and the other wrong.
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New Canadaland
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« Reply #152 on: October 30, 2014, 10:18:37 pm »
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I have no idea, it's extremely strange. In the past couple weeks we've gotten:

Pew: D+1
FOX: D+1
USA Today: D+1
CNN: D+1

CBS: R+8
WaPo: R+6
AP: R+8

The fact that there's clearly two distinct groups showing vastly different things is starting to make me think that "averaging" them may not be the best strategy. It could just be that one group is going to be right and the other wrong.
Likely some likely voter models which are likely too tight are likely off.
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Devils30
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« Reply #153 on: October 30, 2014, 11:45:57 pm »
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The RCP average of GOP up 2.5 does seem plausible though. Still, it's surprising to see everyone downgrading Democratic seats in the house even though the national state of things and senate races haven't changed in 6 weeks.
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