Bachmann wins Iowa straw poll

[Tender Branson]

Colbert is running an ad in Iowa, uring straw pollers to write in "Rick Parry" rather than "Rick Perry":

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/61052.html

What will they do if the result is really close ?

For example Bachmann has 18% and "Rick Perry (write-in)" has 17% and "Rick Parry (write-in)" has 2% ? Will they add them to the Perry numbers ?

[Zarn]

So... Paul up, Huntsman down. Santorum up.

Idk where Paul stands. He sure did energize his base, but pissed off other republicans.

Santorum is up without a doubt. Now what about Cain, Bachmann, and T-Paw?

T-Paw picked a lot of fights, so he better hope it pays off to separate himself from the others. Cain and Bachmann didn't hurt themselves so that's always good.

Yes, yes. I watched the audience applaud Paul and wondered if any of them were actually Republicans.

Of course they are. Why wouldn't they be?

[TheGlobalizer]

You can still vote for 1 day.

Now that the debate is over, is Bachmann still the favorite ?

I think she'll still win this. I´ll post my prediction tomorrow.

I think she has to be the favorite, but Paul is within striking distance, especially with his grassroots zealots.

[Vosem]

My Ames prediction:

1) Paul
2) Pawl
3) Bach
4) Mitt

Discuss with maps.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

T-Paw is done.

[TheGlobalizer]

A week ago, I would have said:

1. Bachmann
2. Romney
3. Paul
4. Pawlenty

Now, I think it's more like:

1. Bachmann
1a. Paul
3. Romney
4. Pawlenty

I think Pawlenty is on the ropes, and if he starts to tank in the IA polling (internal and external) then he could drop out before the caucuses, but certainly after.  I just don't see his narrative.

[cavalcade]

1) Bachmann
2) Paul
3) Pawlenty
4) Romney
5) Cain
6) Santorum
7) WRITE-IN: Rick Perry
Gingrich
9) Huntsman
10) McCotter

[AUH2O Libertarian]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So you can't be a Republican unless you think in lockstep that Bush was justified in dragging us into useless wars?

[AUH2O Libertarian]

I'm pulling for Paul. Something tells me he'll eke by Bachmann for first.  They're the only two with highly motivated bases.

Romney as a write in will then barely upset Pawlenty for third.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Definitely Thad McCotter.

Just kidding.  My gut says Bachmann.

[Landslide Lyndon]

When are we going to have results?

[Niemeyerite]

a week ago, I think Ames was going to be an easy win for Bachmann... now, I think Paul will beat her, but I'm not sure.

[RogueBeaver]

Bachmann or Paul, and Paul winning discredits the straw poll even more than it already is.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Bachmann or Paul, and Paul winning discredits the straw poll even more than it already is.

Iowans take the straw poll very seriously. Mind, it doesn't make the winner suddenly the frontrunner, but Paul has already been rising quite quickly recently and has extremely frail opposition (Pawlenty and Bachmann are falling and just hurt each other, Romney isn't competitive in Iowa, Perry is widely hated and has as much chance of winning the nomination as he does of becoming the Canadian prime minister), so an Ames victory would push him to the top of polling, at which point it wouldn't be discredited.

I like how it becomes clear that Paul has a very good chance of victory so suddenly the Ames straw poll ceases to matter. I actually remember back when he won CPAC and everyone was saying "Well, he won't win Ames, the straw poll that matters!".

[RogueBeaver]

Iowans take it seriously. But as a predictor of the caucuses and the nomination, not so much. The only candidate to grab the troika was GWB.

[California8429]

Bachmann or Paul.

T-Paw and Cain are out for the top two, they they need to be 3rd and fourth. Unless Cain does a good speech, since he's last he has the ability to sweep it if the perfect storm comes on stage.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Iowans take it seriously. But as a predictor of the caucuses and the nomination, not so much. The only candidate to grab the troika was GWB.

It is less of an effect (from already winning the caucus) and more of a cause (increasing the odds of winning the caucus). Again, Paul is doing well enough already, so the boost from an Ames victory would push him quite a ways ahead, as the Iowa Republican Party would have to at least not oppose him as it would discredit Ames in a big way (which is their biggest fundraiser). This isn't considering that whenever the economy takes a tumble his poll numbers leap up three points.

[Eraserhead]

From what I've been able to gather it seems like a Bachmann v. Paul race. I tend to think Paul's people will pull this off and then the result will quickly be dismissed by the media. If Bachmann wins, it will be a bigger deal.

Pawlenty should drop out after this one if he does as poorly as I think he will.

Now, could you imagine if Perry won as a write-in on the same day as his announcement? That would be a BFD but I can't see it happening.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     McCotter for the hell of it. Seriously, probably Paul. He seems to be serious about this one & he typically has the organization to win if he tries.

[Thomas D]

Wow. I was only the 2nd person to vote T-Paw.

[whaeffner1]

If Ron Paul wins the straw poll, it means nothing.  If Bachmann wins though, it means a lot.  Romney needs to finish in the top 3, and unless TPaw has a good showing, he's in hot water.

[Hatman 🍁]

Rick Parry

[Tender Branson]

My Ames Straw Poll prediction:

17% Bachmann
15% Paul
14% Romney
13% Pawlenty
11% Perry
  9% Cain
  7% Gingrich
  6% Santorum
  4% Huntsman
  2% Palin
  1% McCotter
  1% Others (Johnson, Karger, Moore, Roemer all receive less than 1%).

Turnout: ca. 20.000 voters

[Mr. Morden]

My Ames Straw Poll prediction:

17% Bachmann
15% Paul
14% Romney
13% Pawlenty
11% Perry
  9% Cain
  7% Gingrich
  6% Santorum
  4% Huntsman
  2% Palin
  1% McCotter
  1% Others (Johnson, Karger, Moore, Roemer all receive less than 1%).

Turnout: ca. 20.000 voters

Cain and Santorum are actually making an effort at this thing and will have speaking slots.  It'd be pretty embarrassing if they only did about as well as Gingrich.

It's too difficult for me to pick a winner in this thing, or give exact %ages, but I think that Bachmann, Paul, and Pawlenty will all do better than you're predicting, while Romney, Perry, Gingrich, and Huntsman will all do worse.  Last time around, the candidates who didn't show up at the straw poll did terribly.  And while there is an organized write-in campaign for Perry, write-in campaigns rarely do very well.

[redcommander]

I'll only guess the top three.
1. Paul
2. Bachmann
3. Cain