2016 hypothetical: LePage v. McCaskill

[Misoir]

Barack Obama faced off against Gov. Rick Perry in the 2012 Presidential election and won a weak victory. The GOP went soul searching for the next 3 years until in 2015 the new crop of candidates had arrived. An early expected favorite was Marco Rubio but he decided against running. Bobby Jindal was the next candidate of choice alongside Maine Governor Paul LePage. He was viewed as a viable candidate for national office coming from a rather Liberal state.

Democrats furthered their decline among white working class individuals, especially in the Midwest. As they felt their support eroding pressure was applied to find a compromise candidate which could bring together the urban, labor, and working class vote. O’Malley of Maryland was an early pick but he did not want to run as the party was weak with Republicans expected to triumph. Andrew Cuomo decided to run on a socially liberal program emphasizing equality. Claire McCaskill joined the race and was a viewed as a more populist Democrat able to take on the Republicans.

Paul LePage and Claire McCaskill won their respective nominations and were competing in the polls until when LePage was beginning to come out ahead. There was still hope for the Democrats but it was fading each day. By the end of October LePage had grown to a 5 point lead with still 9% undecided, leaving LePage 48% to McCaskill 43%. Today is Election Day 2016, who do you pick?

Also if you would like please discuss with maps as well.

*If this is not a very good timeline please forgive me it is my first attempt*

[Senator Snowstalker]

LePage is a terrible candidate; Maine already hates him. McCaskill wins easily.

[N.i.K.]

Paul LePage is too err... French... for America, though I suppose he would win in this scenario. Though I can't see how he could ever be nominated.

[bloombergforpresident]

Yes! McCaskill! Ha my favorite Senator and my Senator would most certainly win!

[Lucius Quintus Cincinatus Lamar]

LePage is a terrible candidate; Maine already hates him. McCaskill wins easily.

McCaskill has a 100 rating from Planned Parenthood, an 87 rating from the ACLU and an F from the NRA.  No way she wins WV, KY, TN, AR, LA or MT. 

[I Am Feeblepizza.]

I would support LePage. In this scenario, he would win barring a miracle.

[Senator Snowstalker]

LePage is a terrible candidate; Maine already hates him. McCaskill wins easily.

McCaskill has a 100 rating from Planned Parenthood, an 87 rating from the ACLU and an F from the NRA.  No way she wins WV, KY, TN, AR, LA or MT. 

It's all about image. A populist democrat who focuses on kitchen-table economics works for Southern populists, a more left-wing group than you'd imagine. Hillary Clinton holds similar positions and yet was ahead in several of those states.

[Lucius Quintus Cincinatus Lamar]

LePage is a terrible candidate; Maine already hates him. McCaskill wins easily.

McCaskill has a 100 rating from Planned Parenthood, an 87 rating from the ACLU and an F from the NRA.  No way she wins WV, KY, TN, AR, LA or MT. 

It's all about image. A populist democrat who focuses on kitchen-table economics works for Southern populists, a more left-wing group than you'd imagine. Hillary Clinton holds similar positions and yet was ahead in several of those states.

Only if the economy is firing on all cylinders after Obama's second term does she have a shot of coming within 5 points of the Republican in any of those five states, provided her social positions are unchanged.  Hilary was only ahead of Obama in the Democratic primaries in some of those states, not a general election.  I'm not sure she could win a general election in any of the states I named with AR, WV and MT being possible exceptions, depending on her choice of VP.  My gut tells me LA, AR, TN, KY, and WV will be GOP strongholds (in national elections) for the foreseeable future.

[NHI]

I would support LePage. It'd be a close election, but I think he'd pull it out.


273
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[Jayhawker]

People seem to be forgetting they're making maps based off the scenario:

With LePage up by 5 on Election, he'd widely be considered the favorite to win, so would probably win a majority of Independents. Somewhat of an electoral realignment. McCaskill may be from a Southern state, but that doesn't mean she'd do well in the South, especially when voters see her socially liberal record.

Map on Election Day:


Results:


LePage: 326 EV's
McCaskill: 212 EV's

Explanation: McCaskill isn't extremely popular in Missouri, and especially in a Republican year, it'll be very hard for her to win this state. I have McCaskill winning Iowa because I think it'd be a key focus from her campaign in the primaries, while LePage would probably skip Iowa and focus on New Hampshire.

[Jayhawker]

*If this is not a very good timeline please forgive me it is my first attempt*

This was pretty neat, Misoir. Haven't really seen any with either of these two running. One suggestion I'd make - in future hypotheticals, include who the candidates' choose for their Veep. Makes it easier to do.

Also, typically, something like this would usually be posted in this board:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?board=33.0