2012 Election Night Mini-Timeline

[tmthforu94]

This is a timeline I'm actually going to complete, as it'll only take a day or so. This will only cover Election Night 2012.

Beginning in 2011, many top names in the GOP chose not to run, leaving Romney with a heavy advantage over his opponents. But this advantage didn't last for long, and soon he saw himself in a dead heat with Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry in many of the most contested states. While Romney originally had intended to focus on Iowa, polling there showed the race coming down to Bachmann and Perry, with Santorum and Pawlenty both picking up steam as well. Romney instead began focusing on New Hampshire and Nevada, as well as South Carolina, all three states where he was polling well in. On Iowa Caucus night, it became clear that Michele Bachmann had comfortably won, taking around 35% of the vote. The next week in New Hampshire, Governor Romney was able to score a 35%-28% victory over Jon Huntsman, with Bachmann taking a disappointing third. After scoring victories in Michigan in Nevada, the momentum turned towards Romney heading into South Carolina. Cain made a strong showing in South Carolina, but the winner for the evening was Mitt Romney, who narrowly edged out Michele Bachmann in the state. Romney went on to win the Florida primary. With the momentum clearly behind him, Romney won a majority of the states on Super Tuesday. By that time, all candidates had dropped out besides Bachmann, who pledged to fight on until Romney had clinched the nomination.

Despite the endorsement of Bob McDonnell, Mitt Romney lost in a shocker to Michele Bachmann in Virginia, 52-48%. Bachmann also went on to win the Wisconsin primary. But Bachmann's fate was sealed on "Mini Super Tuesday", when Mitt Romney won Texas, Ohio, Vermont, and Rhode Island primaries. In mid-March, Bachmann officially withdrew from the race, endorsing Romney.

Heading into the 2012 General Election, Obama had a moderate edge over Romney, who was damaged from a bitter primary. Early polling showed Obama ahead by an average of 5%. However, as the election drew nearer, the economy never boomed like Obama was hoping for it to, and the race turned into a dead heat. Republicans were able to avoid many of the mistakes made in the 2010 cycle by choosing to nominate electable candidates over pure candidates. The conflict in Libya continued to escalate, and many began to doubt Obama's leadership capabilities.

In August, Mitt Romney announced his choice for Vice President - Susana Martinez. Martinez was the Governor of a 2008 Obama state, but unlike other Tea Party Governor's, was able to maintain high approval ratings. Many saw this pick as a risk, similar to the Palin pick in 2008, but Martinez never made the gaffe's Palin did. Post convention polling showed Romney ahead of Obama by 1%.

Neither candidate dominated the debates, though Romney was seen to have the edge in the townhall setting, and also played attack dog against Obama in the foreign policy debate. Still, many worried how strong Romney would be in foreign policy, with neither him nor Martinez having vast experience in this area. Obama's weakness was countered by Romney's weakness in this field, and the debate focused more towards the economy.

On election day, Gallup had Obama up by 1 point, while Rasmussen Reports had Romney ahead by 2 points.

Election Night:

At 6:30 we can now project through exit polls and early numbers coming in that Governor Mitt Romney will win the state of Kentucky. We can also project Romney will win Indiana, a state Obama won 4 years earlier.

We can also project that President Obama will take Vermont.

Indiana:
Romney/Martinez - 55%
Obama/Biden - 43 %
3% Reporting

Kentucky:
Romney/Martinez - 58%
Obama/Biden - 40%
5% Reporting

Vermont:
Obama/Biden - 63%
Romney/Martinez - 35%
12% Reporting

[tmthforu94]

At 7:00, polls have now closed in Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Virginia. We can now make the following projections:

Governor Mitt Romney has carried the state of South Carolina. Virginia, Georgia, and Florida are all too close to call.

South Carolina:
Romney/Martinez - 55%
Obama/Biden - 42%
3% Reporting

At 7:30, polls have closed in Ohio and West Virginia. Based on exit polls, we can project that Governor Romney will carry the state of West Virginia.

[tmthforu94]

It's 8:00, and polls have closed in the states of Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas.

We can project that President Obama has carried Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Illinois, Maryland, and Massachusetts. None of the results here are too surprising, though I'm sure it's a bit of a sting for Romney to have his home state called against him so early, though it was expected.

We can project that Governor Romney has won the states of Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas. We can also project that Romney will carry the state of Georgia.

While none of these projections are a surprise, we are seeing things look favorably towards Romney thus far. Several state's considered to be Democratic strongholds are not able to be called right now, such as New Jersey and Maine.

At 8:13, we're able to make our first major projection of the evening - Governor Mitt Romney will carry the state of Missouri. Missouri has long been considered a bellwether state, but lost that status in 2008 when it narrowly voted for McCain/Palin.

At 8:30, polls have now closed in Arkansas and North Carolina. We can now project that Romney will carry Arkansas by a comfortable margin. North Carolina is too close to call. While Romney appears to have strong numbers in the South, something many party insiders were worried he couldn't do, North Carolina is a state where Obama has been polling very well. After the Democratic National convention, polls showed Romney trailing Obama by 8 points, though Romney was able to close the gap in the final stretch.

At 8:36, we can now project that President Obama has won New Jersey and the entire Maine delegation.

Romney/Martinez - 139 Electoral Votes, 53% Popular Vote
Obama/Biden - 75 Electoral Votes, 46% Popular Vote

[tmthforu94]

It's 9:00, and polls have closed in a string of states - Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

We can now project that President Obama will carry New York and Rhode Island. We can also project that Governor Romney will carry the states of Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska, and Wyoming.

At 9:16, we're able to make several major projections: Governor Mitt Romney has carried the Granite State, as well as Arizona. We can also project that President Barack Obama will carry Minnesota and Michigan. Michigan is the boyhood home of Governor Romney, and Romney hoped his economic experience would be able to bring the state into his column. However, several comments Romney made in the past regarding the bailouts as well as Governor Snyder's low approval rating (40%) keeps the state in Obama's column.

[tmthforu94]

Between 9-11 will be considered one of the most crucial parts of the night, as several toss-up states will likely be called in this time period.

At 9:34, we can now project that Governor Mitt Romney has won the state of Florida! Florida played a huge role in both of Bush's elections, and the race there was seen as a toss-up the entire way. Governor Romney was able to distance himself enough from the unpopular policies of Rick Scott to capture a victory in the Sunshine State.

We can also project that President Barack Obama will carry the state of Wisconsin.

Romney/Martinez - 205 Electoral Votes
Obama/Biden - 140 Electoral Votes

[tmthforu94]

Quick update on how Congressional and Gubernatorial races are playing out:

Gubernatorial Races:
Earl Ray Tomblin will hold on to the Governor's mansion for a full term. Jay Nixon and Peter Shumlin have also been re-elected in Missouri and Vermont.

In the first takeover of the evening, Pat McCrory has defeated Governor Bev Perdue. Despite Obama performing strong in the state and Perdue taking a center stage at the Democratic National Convention, McCrory will be the next Governor of North Carolina.

In Indiana, Mike Pence has been elected to replace outgoing Governor Mitch Daniels, and is leading former Speaker of the Indiana House John Gregg 54-45%.

Congressional Races:
Tonight has been a pretty solid night for incumbents. Scott Brown and Olympia Snowe have both been reelected to the Senate, though Snowe had to run as an Independent to keep her seat. Dick Lugar has also defeated Joe Donnelly in Indiana. The only pickups of the night thus far is Jon Bruning in Nebraska and Rick Berg in North Dakota, though there are currently tight races in Missouri, Virginia, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

In the House of Representatives, both sides have made several pickups, with the Democrats having a net gain of 6 seats thus far.

(Full Maps will be posted later.

[The Economist]

There's no way Romney would win Florida. And little chance he'd win Missouri. (Although more of a 50-50 chance there).

First of all, the Latino voters of Florida wouldn't embrace the GOP with the platform they have. Secondly, Martinez is a first year governor of New Mexico. Third, Rick Scott is hugely unpopular.

[tmthforu94]

There's no way Romney would win Florida. And little chance he'd win Missouri. (Although more of a 50-50 chance there).

First of all, the Latino voters of Florida wouldn't embrace the GOP with the platform they have. Secondly, Martinez is a first year governor of New Mexico. Third, Rick Scott is hugely unpopular.

She'd be second year by the time of the election.

I think it mostly depends on what the conditions are on election day. If there's a poor economy, I expect Romney to win. If there's a strong economy, Obama would win.

[Del Tachi]

Has Pennsylvania been called or not?

In the map it's not, but in one of the posts you said that Obama had won it.

#confused

[tmthforu94]

Has Pennsylvania been called or not?

In the map it's not, but in one of the posts you said that Obama had won it.

#confused

I don't think I said anywhere that Obama has won it, but if I did, please quote it to me so I can correct it. I only mentioned Pennsylvania when listing the states where polling had closed.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

At 8:36, we can now project that President Obama has won Pennsylvania and the entire Maine delegation.

[tmthforu94]

At 8:36, we can now project that President Obama has won Pennsylvania and the entire Maine delegation.

Shoot, that was supposed to be New Jersey. I guess while typing it I was looking at Pennsylvania and got it confused. Will edit.

[tmthforu94]

It's 10:00, and polls have now closed in Idaho, Iowa, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Oregon, and Utah.

We can now project Governor Romney will carry Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, and Utah.

With 77% of the vote in, we can now project that President Barack Obama will carry the state of North Carolina!

North Carolina:
Obama/Biden - 51%
Romney/Martinez - 47%

We can also project that Obama will win the state of New Mexico. Obama entered the 2012 election with a large lead in New Mexico, but after Romney's selection of Martinez, Romney actually led a couple of times in polling. This news is certainly a disappointment for the Romney camp.

New Mexico:
Obama/Biden - 50%
Romney/Martinez - 48%

[tmthforu94]

At 10:21, we now feel comfortable enough to make a call in Virgina - President Barack Obama will once again carry the state!

Virginia:
Obama/Biden - 49%
Romney/Martinez - 48%
92% Reporting

We can also project that President Obama has won the state of Oregon. Though Romney currently is barely leading the President in the state, exit polling and the location of precincts coming in makes us feel comfortable enough to give the President the state.

Oregon:
Obama/Biden - 49%
Romney/Martinez - 49%
7% Reporting

At 10:35, we can project that President Obama will carry the state of Iowa. This has certainly been a good hours for the President, as 4 crucial states, New Mexico, Iowa, North Carolina, and Virginia, all went his way.

Iowa:
Obama/Biden - 51%
Romney/Martinez - 47%
45% Reporting

At 11:00, polls have now closed everywhere but Alaska.

We can now project that President Obama will carry the states of California, Washington, and Hawaii. With that, President Obama has surpassed Governor Romney in the electoral college.

Obama/Biden - 261 Electoral Votes
Romney/Martinez - 221 Electoral Votes

[tmthforu94]

At 11:11, we can project that Governor Romney will carry the state of Ohio, keeping his hopes alive.

Ohio:
Romney/Martinez - 50%
Obama/Biden - 49%
96% Reporting

President Obama is only 9 votes away from guaranteeing reelection. A win in Colorado or Pennsylvania will seal the deal.

Colorado:
Obama/Biden - 49.6%
Romney/Martinez - 49.3%
75% Reporting

Pennsylvania:
Romney/Martinez - 49.7%
Obama/Biden - 49.2%
90% Reporting

Nevada:
Romney/Martinez - 50.1%
Obama/Biden - 49.2%
44% Reporting

[tmthforu94]

It's 11:37, and we have a major projection to make in the state of Pennsylvania.

Governor Mitt Romney will carry the state of Pennsylvania and it's 20 electoral votes.

Pennsylvania:
Romney/Martinez - 49.8%
Obama/Biden - 49.3%
97% Reporting

With that, the race has officially come down to Colorado, assuming Governor Romney takes the state of Alaska, where polls showed him ahead by double-digits. Obama currently clings to a narrow electoral college lead, 261-259, while Romney still has an overall lead in the popular vote.

It's 12:00 and polls have closed in Alaska. We can easily project that Governor Mitt Romney has won the state of Alaska, and now has a 1 EV lead over the President.

Alaska:
Romney/Martinez - 67%
Obama/Biden - 32%
2% Reporting

Romney/Martinez - 262 Electoral Votes
Obama/Biden - 261 Electoral Votes

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Recount in Pennsylvania!

[tmthforu94]

Recount in Pennsylvania!

We'll see.

[tmthforu94]

At 12:16, here are our updated numbers in Nevada and Colorado...

Colorado:
Obama/Biden - 49.5%
Romney/Martinez - 49.3%
91% Reporting

Nevada:
Romney/Martinez - 50.2%
Obama/Biden - 49.1%
67% Reporting

At 12:25, we can project that Governor Mitt Romney has won the state of Nevada! We can also make a huge projection regarding Congressional races: The GOP will control both chamber of Congress in the upcoming session.

[tmthforu94]

This election has been ran relatively smooth, with few voting problems being reported. However, several are being reported in Colorado now. We're received reports there were widespread machine problems in El Paso county, which has many Republicans worried. El Paso County has a history of voting heavy Republican.

It's 1:44, and we having breaking news! We can now project that President Barack Obama has won Colorado and it's 9 electoral votes. Barack Obama has won the state of Colorado, and has reached the 270 electoral votes needed to clinch the nomination. Barack Obama is the President-elect of America!

President Barack Obama has been re-elected.

Recounts were requested in Pennsylvania and Colorado, though the final percentages did not change very much after the recount was complete.

Final Presidential Map:

Barack Obama/Joseph Biden - 270 Electoral Votes, 49.2% of the Popular Vote
Willard Romney/Susana Martinez - 268 Electoral Votes, 49.0% of the Popular Vote

    State Percentages:
    Alabama: Romney 64%, Obama 35%
    Alaska: Romney 61%, Obama 38%
    Arizona: Romney 53%, Obama 45%
    Arkansas: Romney 57%, Obama 41%
    California: Obama 55%, Romney 43%
    Colorado: Obama 49%, Romney 49%
    Connecticut: Obama 58%, Romney 40%
    Delaware: Obama 57%, Romney 41%
    District of Columbia: Obama 90%, Romney 8%
    Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 48%
    Georgia: Romney 52%, Obama 46%
    Hawaii: Obama 65%, Romney 34%
    Idaho: Romney 68%, Obama 30%
    Illinois: Obama 58%, Romney 40%
    Indiana: Romney 53%, Obama 45%
    Iowa: Obama 51%, Romney 48%
    Kansas: Romney 60%, Obama 37%
    Kentucky: Romney 58%, Obama 40%
    Louisiana: Romney 58%, Obama 39%
    Maine: Obama 53%, Romney 45%
    Maryland: Obama 57%, Romney 41%
    Massachusetts: Obama 56%, Romney 43%
    Michigan: Obama 51%, Romney 48%
    Minnesota: Obama 52%, Romney 47%
    Mississippi: Romney 59%, Obama 39%
    Missouri: Romney 52%, Obama 47%
    Montana: Romney 56%, Obama 42%
    Nebraska: Romney 63%, Obama 35%
    Nevada: Romney 50%, Obama 48%
    New Hampshire: Romney 51%, Obama 47%
    New Jersey: Obama 51%, Romney 47%
    New Mexico: Obama 49%, Romney 47%
    New York: Obama 58%, Romney 40%
    North Carolina: Obama 51%, Romney 47%
    North Dakota: Romney 58%, Obama 40%
    Ohio: Romney 50%, Obama 48%
    Oklahoma: Romney 66%, Obama 33%
    Oregon: Obama 51%, Romney 47%
    Pennsylvania: Romney 49%, Obama 49%
    Rhode Island: Obama 58%, Romney 40%
    South Carolina: Romney 55%, Obama 43%
    South Dakota: Romney 59%, Obama 38%
    Tennessee: Romney 57%, Obama 40%
    Texas: Romney 58%, Obama 40%
    Utah: Romney 74%, Obama 22%
    Vermont: Obama 61%, Romney 37%
    Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 48%
    Washington: Obama 53%, Romney 46%
    West Virginia: Romney 56%, Obama 43%
    Wisconsin: Obama 50%, Romney 48%
    Wyoming: Romney 69%, Obama 29%

[tmthforu94]

Gubernatorial Results:

Republicans held all seats and had pickups in Washington, Montana, North Carolina, and New Hampshire.

Delaware: Governor Jack Markell defeated a little known Republican 67%-30%
Indiana: Congressman Mike Pence defeated former Indiana Speaker John Gregg 52%-46%.
Missouri: Governor Jay Nixon defeated Lt. Governor Peter Kinder 53%-45%.
Montana: Former Congressman Rick Hill defeated State Senator David Wanzenried 55%-44%.
New Hampshire: With Governor John Lynch choosing not to seek reelection, former Republican Congressman Jeb Bradley won with 52% of the vote in a rematch against Carol Shea-Porter.
North Carolina: In another rematch, Pat McCrory defeated Bev Perdue 52%-47%
North Dakota: Governor Jack Dalrymple was reelected with 65% of the vote.
Utah: Governor Gary Herbert narrowly defeated Congressman Jim Matheson, who opted to run for Governor rather than face a tough reelection bid, 51%-48%. Many believe Matheson would have won if not for Romney's coattails.
Vermont: Governor Peter Shumlin won reelection with 55% of the vote.
Washington: In Washington, Rob McKenna defeated Jay Inslee 51%-47%.
West Virginia: Democratic Incumbent Earl Ray Tomblin was able to defeat Betty Ireland, 52%-46%.

Republican now have a 32-18 edge over Democrat for Governor.

[tmthforu94]

Senatorial Results:

As projected earlier, Republicans have won the Senate, taking a narrow lead over Democrats. Democrats had no pickups, while Republicans picked up Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska, Missouri, New Mexico, and Virginia. Tonight is certainly a disappointing night for Harry Reid, as Democrats lost by less than 1% in New Mexico, Missouri, and Virginia. John Tester also narrowly lost in Montana, and Democrats came up just short in trying to take back Nevada, Arizona, and Massachusetts.

Arizona: Jeff Flake defeated Terry Goddard 53%-44%.
California: Diane Feinstein won reelection with 56% of the vote, defeating Chuck DeVore.
Connecticut: Congressman Chris Murphy defeated former Lt. Governor Michael Fedele 55%-43%.
Delaware: Tom Carper easily defeated Michele Rollins, 67%-32%.
Florida: Ben Nelson narrowly won reelection, defeating Mike Haridopolos 52%-47%.
Hawaii: Mazie Hirono was elected to the Senate, defeating Duke
Aiona 55%-44%.
Indiana: Senator Richard Lugar was reelected to the Senate, defeating Joe Donnelly 62%-36%.
Maine: Olympia Snowe has been reelected to the Senate, defeating Rosa Scarcelli and Scott D'Amboise 54%-24%-22%.
Maryland: Ben Cardin has been reelected to the Senate with 56% of the vote, defeating Daniel Bongino.
Massachusetts: Scott Brown won reelection with 53% of the vote, defeating Alan Khazei.
Michigan: Debbie Stabenow won reelection with 58% of the vote over Chad Dewey.
Minnesota: Amy Klobuchar won reelection with 56% of the vote over former State Representative Dan Severson.
Mississippi: Roger Wicker defeated Jim Hood by a margin if 62%-36%.
Missouri: The 2012 Missouri Senate race was arguably the most contested and watched race in the country, as it came down to the wire between incumbent Claire McCaskill and Sarah Steelman. Many national leaders came out swinging for both candidates, including President Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Sarah Palin, and Susana Martinez. Sarah Steelman narrowly won the race, 49.5%-49.1%.
Montana: Denny Rehberg got off to a slow start in this race, but as money began coming in and he got a high profile visit from both Romney and Martinez in mid-October, Rehberg pulled even with Tester in the polls, and on election night, narrowly edged the incumbent 49%-48%.
Nebraska: Similar to Arkansas in 2010, it was obvious from the getgo that Senator Ben Nelson was DOA. He was defeated by Jon Bruning 56%-42%.
Nevada: With a strong Democratic nominee in Shelly Berkley, Democrats hoped to get a pickup from the GOP in Nevada, but Senator Dean Heller survived a narrow 50-47% race.
New Jersey: Republicans hoped to use Menendez's unpopularity to their advantage in the state, but failed to find a candidate strong enough to defeat him. Menendez was reelected with 53% of the vote.
New Mexico: Martin Heinrich started the campaign leading Republican Heather Wilson by as many as 15 points. However, with the selection of Susana Martinez as the GOP Vice Presidential candidate, Republicans began heavily investing in the state in both the Presidential and Senate races. Going into election day, many still expected Heinrich to pull it out, but Heather Wilson managed to narrowly upset Heinrich by just a couple thousand votes.
New York: Kirsten Gillibrand has been reelected to the Senate with 62% of the vote.
North Dakota: Rick Berg picked up this seat by defeating Heidi Heitkamp with 64% of the vote.
Ohio: Sherrord Brown defeated Josh Mandel 52%-45%.
Pennsylvania: Like New Jersey, Republicans hoped to be competitive in Pennsylvania, but couldn't find a strong candidate to challenge Casey. Casey was reelected with 58% of the vote.
Rhode Island: Sheldon Whitehouse was reelected with 61% of the vote over Leo Fontaine.
Tennessee: When Phil Bredesen announced he planned on running for the seat in September 2011, many Democrats saw this as an excellent opportunity for a pickup. However, early in January, Bredesen dropped out, citing health concerns. Bob Corker was reelected with over 60% of the vote.
Texas: David Dewhurst was the heavy favorite to replace Kay Bailey Hutchison for Senate, but when Hutchison herself decided to endorse Elizabeth Ames Jones, it became a bloodbath, with Jones narrowly defeating Dewhurst in the primary. Jones then went on to face Tommy Lee Jones in the general election, defeating him with 55% of the vote.
Utah: Orrin Hatch defeated Republican Jason Chaffetz 57%-42%. The Democrats chose to not field a candidate in this race, and instead endorsed Hatch.
Vermont: Republicans hoped for some magic in Vermont, running Democrat turned Republican Tom Salmon. A Democrat in the House of Representatives also challenged Sanders. Nevertheless, Sanders won reelection with 54% of the vote.
Virginia: George Allen narrowly defeated Tim Kaine in Virginia, 50%-49%.
Washington: Maria Cantwell was reelected to the Senate with 56% of the vote over John Stanton.
West Virginia: Republicans hoped Shelley Moore Capito would challenge Manchin for this seat, but as polls continued to show Manchin with high approvals, she elected to stay in the House. Manchin defeated John Raese 57%-40%.
Wisconsin: Ron Kind was elected to the Senate after defeating former Governor Tommy Thompson 50%-47%. This is a disappointment to the GOP, who were hoping to win with such a strong candidate.
Wyoming: John Barasso ran unopposed.

Republicans now control the Senate, 53-47.

[tmthforu94]

Another Note: Republican retained control of the House with 234 seats.

This timeline is now complete. I hope people enjoy! Probably not the most suspenseful since I completed it in two days, but now I can at least break my curse of not finishing a timeline.

[CatoMinor]

Nice tl, I started reading this expecting a willardslide but was pleasantly surprised

[tmthforu94]

Nice tl, I started reading this expecting a willardslide but was pleasantly surprised

Quote from my favorite TV show...

Expect the Unexpected.

Although Mitt Romney will obviously win my other timeline, given the title. I actually originally planned on this being a narrow Romney win, but as states began falling, I realized it would look incredibly hackish of me to send all the final states towards Romney. I also think it's a bit unique from other timelines, since Colorado is the deciding state. Usually it's Ohio or Florida.