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Question: Which of the following countries in the Middle East and North Africa are likely to see their regimes toppled next?
#1
Morocco
 
#2
Algeria
 
#3
Saudi Arabia
 
#4
Oman
 
#5
United Arab Emirates
 
#6
Qatar
 
#7
Bahrain
 
#8
Kuwait
 
#9
Jordan
 
#10
Iran
 
#11
Sudan
 
#12
Mauritania
 
#13
Chad
 
#14
Lebanon
 
#15
Mali
 
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Author Topic: Who is next?  (Read 2243 times)
Frodo
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« on: July 19, 2012, 10:49:44 PM »
« edited: July 21, 2012, 10:44:48 AM by Frodo »

This is an updated version of my older thread.

Now that it looks as if the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad won't likely survive the end of the year (perhaps not even the end of the summer), which other regime in North Africa and the Middle East do you think is next to be toppled?  Sudan, perhaps?  
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dead0man
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« Reply #1 on: July 19, 2012, 10:57:05 PM »

No Yemen?

Sudan is a good guess.  My other pick is Iran, but that will probably need an "external" spark to get it going again....and oh sh**t, I should have went with Lebanon too.  But that will be less of an Arab Spring and more of a "lets all get together and remove Iranian/Syrian influence from our backyard".
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Frodo
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« Reply #2 on: July 19, 2012, 11:02:57 PM »


I am honestly confused about what's going on over there.  Tongue

I thought that the regime in Yemen had been toppled.  I know that the reigning strongman Ali Abdullah Saleh left the country (hopefully permanently), and a new government is preparing the way for democratic elections.  Yet his family is still very much a part of the picture there. 

Is there anything that I am missing? 
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dead0man
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« Reply #3 on: July 19, 2012, 11:18:44 PM »

Probably not, I just know it's still fairly "active" and the central govt doesn't control all the land that makes up Yeman.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #4 on: July 19, 2012, 11:42:50 PM »

Yemen doesn't really count anymore, IMO.  It's more than half way to becoming the new Somalia.

I think this is pretty much it for the "Arab Spring," tbh.  The Arabian Peninsula regimes can draw on unlimited cash to buy off dissidents, Morocco and Jordan are making barebones concessions to protestors, etc.

Lebanon might see a Hezbollah coup soon, but I'd hardly count that as a revolution.
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Zioneer
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« Reply #5 on: July 20, 2012, 10:17:40 AM »

Yemen doesn't really count anymore, IMO.  It's more than half way to becoming the new Somalia.

I think this is pretty much it for the "Arab Spring," tbh.  The Arabian Peninsula regimes can draw on unlimited cash to buy off dissidents, Morocco and Jordan are making barebones concessions to protestors, etc.

Lebanon might see a Hezbollah coup soon, but I'd hardly count that as a revolution.

Jordan is actually doing really well for reforms, or so I heard, since the King of Jordan is Western-educated and seems to be taking a decent effort to modernize his country. I've heard that Qaboos of Oman is similar, though to a lesser extent.

Agreed on the rest of the regimes though; the Gulf States are basically invincible to dissent at this point, with all the money they can throw around. The Arab Spring, once Assad falls or flees, is over.

The only countries left that could face serious regime change are probably Sudan and/or Mali. Omar al-Bashir could fail spectacularly in his new conflict with South Sudan and have a general or whatnot replace him, and Mali could have enough problems with the Tuaregs that things go pear-shaped (beyond the instability already there). The Coup leaders could try to seize control again, or the Malians could force the appointment of a new leader.
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Dereich
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« Reply #6 on: July 20, 2012, 10:33:58 AM »

I could see an outside chance of Bahrain heating up again if the Saudi succession gets ugly and they turn more inward. Its unlikely but probably as likely as anything else mentioned.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #7 on: July 20, 2012, 10:42:41 AM »

I understand your optimism, but be careful. The Assad regime is not exactly gone yet.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #8 on: July 20, 2012, 10:24:34 PM »

Most likely Sudan, but that's more because of problems caused for al-Bashir by the loss of oil revenue from South Sudan than because of the Arab Spring.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #9 on: July 20, 2012, 10:41:04 PM »

Ethiopia.
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #10 on: July 20, 2012, 10:55:26 PM »

Are you seriously including Ethiopia in the Arab Spring?
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LastVoter
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« Reply #11 on: July 20, 2012, 11:40:54 PM »

How do we count Sudan? Isn't it two countries now?
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #12 on: July 20, 2012, 11:51:21 PM »

How do we count Sudan? Isn't it two countries now?

South Sudan isn't even remotely an Arab country, nor an Islamic country.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #13 on: July 22, 2012, 11:48:21 AM »

How do we count Sudan? Isn't it two countries now?

We're counting the one called Sudan, I'd say.
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ingemann
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« Reply #14 on: July 22, 2012, 01:48:28 PM »

Honestly if we see the precedence from the the 1830 revolutions in Europe, we may have to wait decades before we see the next wave of revolutions in the Middleeast. Right now the different regimes are reacting to the revolution with a mix of ramping up the oppression of the regimes and making minor political reforms, much as the European regimes reacted after the 1830 revolutions.
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danny
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« Reply #15 on: July 22, 2012, 04:24:45 PM »


Jordan is actually doing really well for reforms, or so I heard, since the King of Jordan is Western-educated and seems to be taking a decent effort to modernize his country.

Assad is also western educated, that doesn't mean much on its own.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #16 on: July 23, 2012, 03:40:30 AM »

Jordan is actually doing really well for reforms, or so I heard, since the King of Jordan is Western-educated and seems to be taking a decent effort to modernize his country. I've heard that Qaboos of Oman is similar, though to a lesser extent.

Qaboos has been modernising his country since he overthrew his father in 1970; Oman is in the top half (narrowly) of the Human Development Index. That said, the oil revenues are starting to drop.
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