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Author Topic: NH-PPP: Only Romney currently ahead of Obama  (Read 1438 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: July 07, 2011, 12:27:35 pm »

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 46%
Disapprove...................................................... 49%

...

Mitt Romney.................................................... 46%
Barack Obama................................................ 44%

Barack Obama................................................ 49%
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 42%

Barack Obama................................................ 48%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 41%

Barack Obama................................................ 49%
Herman Cain................................................... 39%

Barack Obama................................................ 53%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 38%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NH_07071118.pdf
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1 on: July 07, 2011, 12:34:13 pm »
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Obama vs. Romney



Obama vs. Bachmann






Obama vs. Palin



Obama vs. Pawlenty




Favorite Sons:


Obama vs. local favorite sons




DeMint -- South Carolina
Santorum -- Pennsylvania
Romney -- Michigan and New Hampshire
Pawlenty -- Minnesota
Thune -- South Dakota
Gingrich -- Georgia
Bachmann -- Minnesota (but I am showing her in Iowa instead because of Pawlenty)
Palin -- Arizona (she is allegedly moving there) and Alaska
Perry -- Texas
Cain -- Georgia (but I will show him in North Carolina)
Ron Paul -- Texas (but I will show him in Oklahoma for this purpose
Daniels -- Indiana (if the state is ever polled) 
Johnson -- New Mexico
McCotter -- Michigan (but I will show him in Ohio for this purpose)
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Volatilesaff
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« Reply #2 on: July 07, 2011, 02:10:29 pm »
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He really is doing pretty poor in NH.
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« Reply #3 on: July 07, 2011, 02:26:22 pm »
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Wasn't PPP's last NH sample pretty Dem-friendly?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4 on: July 07, 2011, 04:39:51 pm »
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The Favorite Son effect can swing a State as much as 5% so long as the news is entirely benign.  Such could be enough to give New Hampshire, which Barack Obama won by about 9%, to Mitt Romney.   
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King
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« Reply #5 on: July 07, 2011, 04:44:52 pm »
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Keep in mind New Hampshire is getting saturated by Republican primary ads and attacks on Obama with no response from the Democrats at the moment.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #6 on: July 07, 2011, 06:26:56 pm »
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Keep in mind New Hampshire is getting saturated by Republican primary ads....

Have any of the candidates actually run any TV ads in NH yet?  I don't think they have.  They've been run in Iowa, but that's it so far.

(Unless you count an ad by Fred Karger that ran on like one station on one day or something.)
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Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #7 on: July 07, 2011, 07:09:40 pm »
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With each passing day, Obama looks weaker.

Romney's ability to defeat Obama are underestimated by too many liberals, he's actually in a very strong position as long as he can get past the hurdle of the primaries. His favorables with Moderates are almost in Scott Brown territory for a Republican: 43-38 compared to 22-65 for Bachmann. He's consistently as popular or more popular than Obama with Independents and swing voters.
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« Reply #8 on: July 07, 2011, 09:46:45 pm »
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With each passing day, Obama looks weaker.

Romney's ability to defeat Obama are underestimated by too many liberals, he's actually in a very strong position as long as he can get past the hurdle of the primaries. His favorables with Moderates are almost in Scott Brown territory for a Republican: 43-38 compared to 22-65 for Bachmann. He's consistently as popular or more popular than Obama with Independents and swing voters.
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‎"Our president thinks this country's in decline. It is if he's president. It's not if I'm president." -- Mitt Romney

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« Reply #9 on: July 07, 2011, 10:33:24 pm »
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No one is underestimating Romney, but there is a lot of overestimating. This is one state worth four votes, polls in other states worth more electoral votes show him trailing. Even in this poll, he manages just about a couple of more points than McCain did, which was the floor for the GOP in the state, that's what you have to look at in these polls. Anyone who changes positions on issues in a matter of a few years is completely beatable, let's not act like he's unstoppable.
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King
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« Reply #10 on: July 07, 2011, 11:16:47 pm »
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With each passing day, Obama looks weaker.

Romney's ability to defeat Obama are underestimated by too many liberals, he's actually in a very strong position as long as he can get past the hurdle of the primaries. His favorables with Moderates are almost in Scott Brown territory for a Republican: 43-38 compared to 22-65 for Bachmann. He's consistently as popular or more popular than Obama with Independents and swing voters.

Romney's strength pales compared to his weaknesses.  Sure, he might be able to make Democratic states like New Hampshire, New Jersey, Michigan, and Oregon close, but he also makes Republican states closer because they're less interested in him.  Now, in places like Arizona or Kansas that might not matter, but in places like Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia--where the race becomes a GOTV drive between hardcore, but not necessarily Republican, conservatives and African-American Democrats--who is going to entice their side to show up to the polls with more enthusiasm?
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« Reply #11 on: July 08, 2011, 10:19:45 am »
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With each passing day, Obama looks weaker.

Romney's ability to defeat Obama are underestimated by too many liberals, he's actually in a very strong position as long as he can get past the hurdle of the primaries. His favorables with Moderates are almost in Scott Brown territory for a Republican: 43-38 compared to 22-65 for Bachmann. He's consistently as popular or more popular than Obama with Independents and swing voters.

Romney's strength pales compared to his weaknesses.  Sure, he might be able to make Democratic states like New Hampshire, New Jersey, Michigan, and Oregon close, but he also makes Republican states closer because they're less interested in him.  Now, in places like Arizona or Kansas that might not matter, but in places like Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia--where the race becomes a GOTV drive between hardcore, but not necessarily Republican, conservatives and African-American Democrats--who is going to entice their side to show up to the polls with more enthusiasm?

I can't see GA flipping to Obama. I think he maxed out in 2008.
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« Reply #12 on: July 10, 2011, 06:14:35 pm »
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I sure am loving that Palin map Smiley
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #13 on: July 13, 2011, 03:14:54 pm »
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Romney's strength is also Romney's weakness. He competes in states that he shouldn't win like PA and NH but also competes in states that he shouldn't lose like AZ and MO. Huntsman will have the same thing but to a higher extent.
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Bernie would probably win Vermont if Obama were deemed to have more than 272 evs in the vag.
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« Reply #14 on: July 13, 2011, 07:11:03 pm »
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It would make for a far more interesting election night though.
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King
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« Reply #15 on: July 13, 2011, 07:55:43 pm »
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It would be better for the Republican Party in the long run to lose in a landslide with someone like Bachmann than maybe win with Romney.  The Teabagger cancer will eat the party up if Romney loses and destroy it.

Besides a better Presidential candidate awaits them in 2016 (Rubio, Thune, etc.) if they're patient.
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« Reply #16 on: July 13, 2011, 10:05:49 pm »
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Lol google translator!
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Mechaman
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« Reply #17 on: July 13, 2011, 10:42:06 pm »
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Michele on steep willed woman who was good at cooking up the rooster, he was not so good to be on the booster. The more she gobbled, the less likely she bobbled. Good by kneading with the broom, not so much as taking one for the groom.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #18 on: July 15, 2011, 08:58:23 pm »
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Michele on steep willed woman who was good at cooking up the rooster, he was not so good to be on the booster. The more she gobbled, the less likely she bobbled. Good by kneading with the broom, not so much as taking one for the groom.

That is one of the funniest things I've seen all week.
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