NH-PPP: Only Romney currently ahead of Obama

[pbrower2a]

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Bachmann

Obama vs. Palin

Obama vs. Pawlenty

Favorite Sons:


Obama vs. local favorite sons

DeMint -- South Carolina
Santorum -- Pennsylvania
Romney -- Michigan and New Hampshire
Pawlenty -- Minnesota
Thune -- South Dakota
Gingrich -- Georgia
Bachmann -- Minnesota (but I am showing her in Iowa instead because of Pawlenty)
Palin -- Arizona (she is allegedly moving there) and Alaska
Perry -- Texas
Cain -- Georgia (but I will show him in North Carolina)
Ron Paul -- Texas (but I will show him in Oklahoma for this purpose
Daniels -- Indiana (if the state is ever polled) 
Johnson -- New Mexico
McCotter -- Michigan (but I will show him in Ohio for this purpose)

[pbrower2a]

The Favorite Son effect can swing a State as much as 5% so long as the news is entirely benign.  Such could be enough to give New Hampshire, which Barack Obama won by about 9%, to Mitt Romney.