Will Perry Run?

[Mehmentum]

I vote no, this is just Republicans getting themselves worked up again, just like with Daniels.

[pbrower2a]

He can run, but he can't win. 

[Reaganfan]

Yes he will run, yes he can win.

[Badger]

He's in sometime in August, and within a month of Ames.

[TheGlobalizer]

He can run, but he can't win. 

[Mr. Morden]

Of course, it's far from certain, but yes, I'd say greater than 50/50 chance that he runs.  Some of you tend to get too skeptical, just because there's been little new substantive news on this in the last week.  OK, here's some additional news suggesting that he may be leaning towards a run:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0711/58608.html

Is that good enough for you? 

[Meeker]

I think he will.

[Badger]

It's funny considering how recently I posted that Perry was a near lock to run and would likely sweep the rest of the pack aside in becoming Romney's prime competitor, but I almost wonder if he's missed the boat in waiting too long.

Assuming he enters sometime in August (he's not about to start off his campaign by getting handidly beat in Ames due to lack of prep time), he's allowed Bachmann-mania to start really taking hold among the ultraconservative teabagger wing of the party. I'm not saying it can't be done, but with Bachmann pulling ahead in so many states outside of Iowa, Perry will have a real uphill climb in convincing the right wing to abandon Bachmann with just a few months campaigning. Yes, Bachmann's penchant for shooting from the lip may give even some super-conservatives pause about her chances against Obama, but if those voters are already warming to her--particularly the ones most attentive to the campaign accordingly to the most recent Iowa poll--despite (or maybe because of) her many well publicized WTF comments during the campaign already, it's questionable whether many will abandon her when more gaffes (as dubbed by the MSM) inevitably follow.

State logistics are a problem too. Yes, it's early to call any state a lock, but Bachmann's been working her homestate's political network assiduously for over a year now, so it would take a truly herculean effort on Perry's part to supplant her there in the course of only 4-5 months. Likewise, Even if wounded with a mediocre showing in Iowa, it's very difficult to see Perry beating Romney in New Hampshire; he'd be lucky to beat Bachmann for second assuming she's building off momentum from a win in IA.

It's tough to run as the conservative alternative candidate and skip Iowa, so he probably needs to enter and get at least a strong second place there. Regardless of whether he contests Iowa or not, he almost surely needs a win in SC to avoid being 12's version of Huckabee (or even Thompson). With his conservative bona fides, plus major financial and party apparatus backing, that is entirely doable. But by waiting so long Perry seems to have allowed Ms. Thousand Yard Stare to steal the march on room, and thus significantly reduced any flexability in his path to the nomination.

[Torie]

Yes he will run, yes he can win.

Someone might not be sufficiently familiar with all the odd things Perry has said over the years. 

[The Mikado]

The question as to whether Perry is a serious challenger for the nomination is solely dependent on when he gets in the race.  Honestly, I'm starting to suspect that it's almost too late already, and gets more so by the day.  Pretty soon, he'll be in Wesley Clark/Fred Thompson territory.

[RogueBeaver]

I'm getting Daniels vibes from Perry myself.

[NHI]

Personally I don't think he'll run. If he does decide to, he'll make an impression, but won't win the nomination. I can see him as a potential cabinet member in a Republican Administration.

[cduebelhoer]

Yes, I think he will.  I think he will kind of be like a Fred Thompson-ish campaign.  A lot of people waiting for him to get in, he gets in, and turns out to be a quick flash in the pan.  No way I see him winning the nomination. 

[Mr. Morden]

My current prediction is that Perry waits until just a couple of days after his controversial "prayer day" on August 6 to enter the race.  I think he gets in just in time to participate in the August 11th debate in Iowa.

That would also be just late enough that he'll have an excuse not to "officially" compete in the Iowa straw poll.  But his name will still be on the straw poll ballot, and he won't stop some of his allies (who won't be officially affiliated with the campaign) from organizing for him there.  That way, he can have his cake and eat it too.  If he manages to show a pulse at Ames, then great.  Otherwise, he wasn't officially making an effort there, so it doesn't matter.

If he doesn't enter the race in time to participate in the August 11 debate, then that probably means he's not seriously interested in this.

[Badger]

My current prediction is that Perry waits until just a couple of days after his controversial "prayer day" on August 6 to enter the race.  I think he gets in just in time to participate in the August 11th debate in Iowa.

That would also be just late enough that he'll have an excuse not to "officially" compete in the Iowa straw poll.  But his name will still be on the straw poll ballot, and he won't stop some of his allies (who won't be officially affiliated with the campaign) from organizing for him there.  That way, he can have his cake and eat it too.  If he manages to show a pulse at Ames, then great.  Otherwise, he wasn't officially making an effort there, so it doesn't matter.

If he doesn't enter the race in time to participate in the August 11 debate, then that probably means he's not seriously interested in this.

Awesome analysis, Morden. I concur, FWIW.

[Yelnoc]

My current prediction is that Perry waits until just a couple of days after his controversial "prayer day" on August 6 to enter the race.  I think he gets in just in time to participate in the August 11th debate in Iowa.

That would also be just late enough that he'll have an excuse not to "officially" compete in the Iowa straw poll.  But his name will still be on the straw poll ballot, and he won't stop some of his allies (who won't be officially affiliated with the campaign) from organizing for him there.  That way, he can have his cake and eat it too.  If he manages to show a pulse at Ames, then great.  Otherwise, he wasn't officially making an effort there, so it doesn't matter.

If he doesn't enter the race in time to participate in the August 11 debate, then that probably means he's not seriously interested in this.

He's got file for it by July 29.  Can he file for the Ames Debate if he isn't a candidate?

[Mr. Morden]

My current prediction is that Perry waits until just a couple of days after his controversial "prayer day" on August 6 to enter the race.  I think he gets in just in time to participate in the August 11th debate in Iowa.

That would also be just late enough that he'll have an excuse not to "officially" compete in the Iowa straw poll.  But his name will still be on the straw poll ballot, and he won't stop some of his allies (who won't be officially affiliated with the campaign) from organizing for him there.  That way, he can have his cake and eat it too.  If he manages to show a pulse at Ames, then great.  Otherwise, he wasn't officially making an effort there, so it doesn't matter.

If he doesn't enter the race in time to participate in the August 11 debate, then that probably means he's not seriously interested in this.

He's got file for it by July 29.  Can he file for the Ames Debate if he isn't a candidate?

File for what?  A spot on the straw poll ballot?  It's possible that his allies in Iowa will arrange a spot for him on the ballot, even before he's officially announced.  I don't actually know what the mechanics of that are.  They're already seeking a vendor spot at the straw poll:

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2011/07/01/perry_supporters_seek_spot_at_iowa_straw_poll.html

Regarding the debate, I assume that Fox News and the Iowa GOP will allow him to participate in the debate even if he doesn't enter the race until 1 or 2 days earlier.  Heck, CNN invited Bachmann to their debate before she even had an exploratory committee.

[Mr. Morden]

Perry just had lunch with Musharraf.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

[The Mikado]

Perry just had lunch with Musharraf.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

Pervy Pervez is looking pretty good...retirement agrees with him.

[Keystone Phil]

Perry just had lunch with Musharraf.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

He was probably hungry.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Pakistanchurian Candidate?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Keep your friends close, but your enemies closer.

[GMantis]

Yes he will run, yes he can win the Republican primary in Texas

Corrected. And I wouldn't bet on it.

[Simfan34]

Perry just had lunch with Musharraf.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

Getting foreign policy experience.

[California8429]

Yes but I hope no