Obama vs. Daniels 2012

[anvi]

5:12 am EST, Wednesday, November 7th, 2012

Now, as we are waiting on more information in the state that will decide where the nation goes from here, it may be useful to talk about some relevant information regarding Nevada.  It still has an awfully high unemployment rate, 11.6% of its citizens are out of work, but that figure does not included the long-term unemployed who have stopped looking for work.  It remains, as mentioned, the foreclosure capital of the country.  Despite all this, its population has grown slightly since the election of 2008, by a little over 100,000 persons, and indeed the growth in its population has led in this race to Nevada's gaining a congressional district and one more electoral vote; it had 5 in the previous decade and now has 6.  Now, Democrats have been focusing a lot of attention on Nevada in recent years as a potentially reliable state in presidential elections in the west for them.  It continues of course to be the home of the Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid, and the president in 2008 carried Nevada by 13% of the vote after it voted for George W. Bush in both 2000 and 2004.  Even in the Republican wave of 2010, though the GOP did pick up a U.S. House seat in the state's 3rd Congressional District, Democrats breezed to victories that year in both the Reno and Las Vegas areas.  In terms of the composition of the electorate, more than half of Nevada's voters in presidential elections are women, and people of Hispanic or Latino origin make up almost 27% of Nevada's population, and both women and Latinos-Hispanics gave president Obama substantial, and in the latter demographic's case, overwhelming support in 2008.  And yet, another one of the sizable constituencies in the electorate are independents, and they may be the decisive one.  They make up about an entire one-third of the state's voters, and in 2008 they offered 56% of their support to then-Senator Obama.  Obama had been performing poorly in the polls with Nevada independents in terms of his job approvals all the way until the summer of 2011, and as in other states, Obama's move to what has been perceived to be the political center in budget negotiations with the Republicans in Congress has been perceived as an attempt to curry some of their favor back.  But Daniels has maintained strong appeal among this state's independents in the polls since he was nominated, despite the fact that Mitt Romney won the contest here in the primary season.  Of course, during the general election campaign, the president touted his appointment of Sonya Sotomeyor to the United States Supreme Court, he boasted of his administration's support of mortgage relief for people struggling to keep their homes and his administration's support of the continued extension of unemployment benefits.  In their own campaign here, the Daniels-Rubio ticket has been appealing to the Hispanic-Latino community as well, trying at the very least to shave some support of president Obama out of this community, and they have criticized the president's economic policies, saying memorably that people don't want and can't make a living on unemployment benefits forever, they want jobs, and that will require the kind of economic growth that Daniels insists his policies would bring to the country.

Now, one more detail that might, might be of incredible importance here, and could, if the final vote tally in Nevada ends up being close, might complicate the 2012 election of the president even more.  Recount election law differs in Nevada from the laws we have been discussing in Virginia.  In Nevada, a defeated candidate has the right, without specifying any particular margin of victory, to request a recount.  They may do this within three calendar days of the certification of Nevada's vote, and recounts are to be completed within only a few days of the request.  We have no concrete information to suggest as yet that a recount in Nevada will be requested by either of the candidates, but it is easy, very easy at this point, to imagine that one of the things being discussed in the Daniels campaign at this very minute, may indeed be the possibility of a recount in Nevada too if Daniels comes up only a little bit short in the race here.  Imagine it, an even more amazing scenario than the Bush-Gore race of 2000, the possibility of recounts in two different states to decide the winner of the presidential race!  It boggles the mind, but it is not entirely out of the question as we head close to sunrise on the east coast, the day after voting day in the 2012 election.

[anvi]

7:02 am EST, Wednesday, November 7th, 2012

Good morning, ladies and gentleman.  If you went to bed last night not knowing who the president-elect was going to be in this historic 2012 race for the White House, grab your coffee and sit with us for a few minutes before going to work, because we have news.

98% of the precincts of Nevada have reported in, and we have a projection.

Barack Obama, 51 years old, has been reelected to a second term in office, as the 44th president of the United States of America.

According to vote totals coming in from Nevada, by our estimation, president Obama did it in Nevada by taking a little over 54% of the vote in Clark county in the southeast, and by capturing 49.5% of the vote in Washoe county in the northwest, while holding his losses to just barely under 40% of the vote in Nye county.  He was beaten badly in Elko and other parts of the state, but his numbers in Las Vegas and Reno were sufficient to carry him through.  Here are the vote totals we have from the state at the moment.

Obama             492,367  (51%)
Daniels             453,583  (47%)
Other                  19,332 (  2%)

There was a huge turnaround from voting in the 2008 campaign here, which we were anticipating given the state of Nevada's economy.  There will probably be, when all the votes are counted, between an eight and nine point turnaround in Nevada between four years ago and this year, more certainly than the national average popular vote turnaround, but it just wasn't quite enough to put Daniels over the top.  A four-point margin separates the candidates in Nevada, and the remaining precincts come from very sparsely populated counties, so we do not expect the percentages to change.  We therefore will now color Nevada on our national electoral map for president Obama.

With 270 electoral votes needed to win, that brings president Obama to 272 electoral votes, Daniels remains at 253, and therefore, in our view, president Obama has been reelected.  

The other networks are making this same announcement as we speak, but as yet, no one has any word from either the Daniels or the Obama campaign, Governor Daniels has released at this minute no concession statement and the president has not yet claimed victory.  As has been mentioned a number of times in the past few hours, any losing candidate does have the option of requesting a recount from the state of Nevada, and we already know that Governor Daniels has stated the intent to ask for a recount in Virginia where he is currently behind by about 38,000 votes, which there represents only 1% the difference between them, though the Old Dominion has not yet been called in anyone's projections.  The question remains, will Governor Daniels judge that a four percent margin, a difference between he and the president right now of almost 39,000 votes, is narrow enough for him to justify asking for another go-through of the ballots?  Given the closeness of this entire election nationally and in all the battleground states we have been watching, there may be some, if not many, in the Daniels campaign who would appeal to him to do this.  We await now statements from the candidates, and especially from Governor Daniels.  But, for our own part, we believe, in this early morning of the day after the votes have been cast in this spectacular election, that Barack Obama will remain the president of the United States.
....................

7:38 am EST

We are receiving news from the Daniels campaign along with a message to the nation.  The Daniels campaign is now confirming that the Indiana Governor has just completed a brief phone call to President Obama conceding the election, congratulating the president on his hard-fought victory and vowing to do whatever he can in working closely with the president in the coming years to ensure a brighter future for the American people.  At this moment, I will read a short statement the campaign is attributing directly to Governor Daniels, who we expect will be speaking with the nation more extensively, live, at approximately 8:15 am.  The short statement reads:

"This has been a closely contested race for the presidency of the United States.  Yesterday, more than one hundred thirty-five million Americans went to the polls to make their voices heard and their wishes for the future known.  I am inexpressibly grateful to my supporters and to all those who voted for me.  I know that many of them may want me to have the votes of Nevada and Virginia recounted. But, no matter how small the margin, we bow to the supremacy of the democratic process in our great country, a process that is more important than any of us.  We are satisfied that the margin of victory in Nevada is just large enough to make president Obama a winner today.  I therefore will not request a recount in that state, and hereby suspend any intentions to ask for a recount of the votes in Virginia.  The nation now needs, not divisiveness and contention, but unity and a common resolve, in which, when each citizen of this great nation does his or her duty, the United States of America cannot be anything but the greatest country the world has ever known.   I congratulate president Obama on his victory and pledge to him my best wishes and help during the coming years."

Obama           285
Daniels           253

[anvi]

And, the day after the election was decided, November 8th, 2012, every inch of the United States spontaneously combusted.

The end.

[tmthforu94]

Very detailed! Though not a fan of the end results, great job!

[anvi]

Very detailed! Though not a fan of the end results, great job!

Thanks!

I'm not a fan of the end results either.  I went into writing this really not knowing what the outcome would be, and just decided to think through it as I wrote.  The only thing I knew when I started it is that I basically wanted conditions to be such that the race was about even.  Then, as I worked my way through the story, I basically came to the conclusion as I looked at it state-by-state that a basically even race nationally probably wouldn't result in enough of a turnover to flip the small states that ended up being crucial.  Even if I'd given Virginia to Daniels, which I was seriously considering doing all along, even until the possible recount wrinkle, I think Obama would crawl across the finish line first in the end based on the starting assumptions.  In a way, thinking through this has brought me to the conclusion that, if by general election season next year, the GOP nominee doesn't have a clear lead on Obama that's three points nationally or better, it will be hard for them to get all the states back they need to win.

But, who knows, it could all be dead wrong, it's just playing around anyway.  But, I'm glad you enjoyed reading it. 

[tmthforu94]

Very detailed! Though not a fan of the end results, great job!

Thanks!

I'm not a fan of the end results either.  I went into writing this really not knowing what the outcome would be, and just decided to think through it as I wrote.  The only thing I knew when I started it is that I basically wanted conditions to be such that the race was about even.  Then, as I worked my way through the story, I basically came to the conclusion as I looked at it state-by-state that a basically even race nationally probably wouldn't result in enough of a turnover to flip the small states that ended up being crucial.  Even if I'd given Virginia to Daniels, which I was seriously considering doing all along, even until the possible recount wrinkle, I think Obama would crawl across the finish line first in the end based on the starting assumptions.  In a way, thinking through this has brought me to the conclusion that, if by general election season next year, the GOP nominee doesn't have a clear lead on Obama that's three points nationally or better, it will be hard for them to get all the states back they need to win.

But, who knows, it could all be dead wrong, it's just playing around anyway.  But, I'm glad you enjoyed reading it. 

I do the same thing - I never know who's going to win in the end until there's just a few tossup states left. Well, except the "Election of Mitt Romney" one. I had a pretty good idea who'd win that, just wasn't sure how he'd win it.

[MAINEiac4434]

Certainly one of the more gripping election night/morning timelines on this forum. Great job.

[Yelnoc]

Best election night timeline I've read.

I doubt, however, that Nevada would go to Obama by a four percent margin when unemployment was at 11% + people who had given up; that houses are still foreclosing; and that Daniels would likely have presented himself as a viable alternative to Obama with economic credentials.  And then there is the Rubio pick, which I think would have swung more of the Hispanic community. 

But, who knows?  Regardless, you did a great job.

[anvi]

Thanks, all!  I'm really happy you enjoyed reading the TL!    I at least wanted to write it well enough for it to be entertaining.  And, it was the race we never got to see, so I thought it would be fun to explore it.

Yelnoc, I guess we'll find out about Nevada next year.  A number of these states underwent big demographic shifts in the last decade or so, and I always find it hard to measure that against the conditions a state is undergoing at election time.  Nevada went for Obama by about 12.5% last time around, after having voted for Bush by 3.5% and 2.5% in his two victories.  12.5% is a massive swing, even taking into account economic unrest and complicating factors, especially in a state where, despite these conditions obtaining last November, Democrats still did well in Congressional elections.  But, as noted, I could be dead wrong about a whole bunch of states, so we'll find out next year.  Thanks for the nice compliment and the feedback. 

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Very detailed! Though not a fan of the end results, great job!

Same, except that by end results, I mean the spontaneous combustion part.

[Bo]

Nice job, anvikshiki. I like the result. Are you going to continue this TL beyond 2012 or not?

[Penelope]

Holy crap, a Daniels TL that doesn't have him winning! You're my hero!

[anvi]

Thanks, all.  I won't continue the timeline beyond this date, since, tooli be honest, I can't really see past the 2012 race, no matter who wins, right now. 

I was thinking about adding one or two more posts that did an analysis of exit polls to see why the votes in specific states turned out the way they did. But after all the work I put into this, I'm kind of tired.

I think the two major takeaways from the timeline for me were that 1.) if the Republicans want to win, they have to put creating jobs squarely first on their agenda, and they really need to do a lot of work in the mid-size and small swing states next year; Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa and New Hampshire.  Getting back North Carolina, Florida and Ohio, while expensive, will be the easy part of next year's campaign for the Republican nominee; the hard part will be winning smaller states with growing Democratic demographics.  If they can't dislodge at least two of these smaller states, I think at least at the moment that they may well find themselves watching inauguration day again and not planning it.  Second, in order for Obama to win reelection, he has to woo the independent vote back.  The Democratic base is a problem in terms of getting them out to the polls, but, seeing how much money Obama has already raised, that may be less of a problem then I've thought up to now.  But, there are a lot of voters in the states mentioned above that identify themselves as independents, and if Obama loses them, he'll lose those states too, and the presidency with them.