Obama vs. Daniels 2012

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November 6th, 2012 has finally arrived, and just moments remain before the first poll closings in the east.

It has been a long and grueling general election battle since Indiana Governor Daniels won a protracted nomination contest over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and, shortly before the Republican National Convention, selected, to the surprise of many, newly elected Florida Senator Marco Rubio as his running mate.  Rubio has served, as is well known by now, as the aggressive attacker against the president and his policies, and has campaigned extensively in his own state of Florida as well as aggressively in the west, and really went after a somewhat flustered vice-president Biden in their debate in mid-October.  Daniels, on the other hand, has taken an issue-focused yet moderate tone against his opponent for the White House, and their three debates were thought to be virtual ties by all observers.  Daniels has set the agenda for this year's main issue for the most part, and that is job growth in the economy, and has won a great deal of support from Republicans and independents on the issue.  As we will see in a moment, his numbers nationwide look promising, but the election is still very much up for grabs as we head into our first poll closings.  Both candidates know this, of course, having campaigned into the wee hours of the morning, criss-crossing one another's paths in the major battleground states.

President Obama has struggled to appeal to a nation still in the grips of an unemployment crisis.  While the situation of the labor market has improved somewhat in the past year, 8.5% of Americans are still out of work, with the numbers being especially high in states the president is hoping to hold tonight.  Many pollsters have wondered, given may people's state-to-state moves that have resulted from the unemployment and foreclosure challenges the nation has undergone, how these changes will play out in the swing states as well.  The president has also struggled to keep a very disquieted and unsatisfied Democratic base on board, appealing to achieving some important items on their social agenda in his first term, in view of recent deals he has brokered with the Republicans in congress on a major overhaul in tax rates and long-term entitlement program reforms, even though these decisions have drawn some independents back to supporting him.  The president breathed a sigh of relief earlier this fall, when the United States Supreme Court upheld the contentious health insurance mandate, the centerpiece of his landmark first term health care legislation, consistent with the Constitution.  But he is weak on the unemployment issue, and his base is less than satisfied.

Going into tonight, here is how the most recent national polls size up.  President Obama and Governor Daniels are basically tied within the margin of error in all major national polls.  CNN/Gallop/USAToday has Governor Daniels leading by a point, 48%-47%, PPP and Quinnapiac have Obama in the lead, 48%-46% and Rasmussen has Governor Daniels ahead, 49%-47%.  But, as we all know, the election will be decided by the states and the electoral college, and all eyes tonight are on the following states: Florida, where Governor Daniels heading into tonight holds a small lead; Pennsylvania, where the candidates are virtually tied but Obama holding a razor-thin lead; Ohio where Governor Daniels also holds a small lead along with North Carolina; and Virginia, Colorado, where the president is slightly ahead, Nevada where the president is slightly ahead, Iowa, which is virtually tied, and New Hampshire, where Governor Daniels holds a one-and-a-half point lead.  Keep in mind though, every single one of these key states is within the margin of error, and neither polls in the past week, nor the exit polls so far today, have given us any clear indication of who has the upper hand in the race.  Also on our watch list tonight, somewhat surprising, is the state of Michigan, where president Obama won handily four years ago, and though he is still holding a five point lead there going into this evening, Governor Daniels' numbers there have looked relatively good, in what may be an indication of a nationwide shift this year.

Exit polling today tells us one story, almost exclusively about jobs and the economy.  People who were most concerned with the economy, this year's number one issue, favored Daniels substantially.  Since the last two budget deals, the deficit is less of a concern that we had been expecting going into tonight, favoring Governor Daniels, but again, not so high on the list of people's concerns, which may explain some of the president's thinking in what were perceived by his own party as major concessions on spending cuts, though the administration argues the spending cuts on entitlements don't effect present beneficiaries very much.  For the first time in recent memory, national security and foreign policy polling favor a Democratic president, but this again is not so high on people's list of concerns.  Both campaigns have invested huge amounts of money in get-out-the-vote operations, the public is turning our in record numbers, perhaps as many as 63% of eligible voters will turn out by the time the polls close in all states.  And, at this moment, we still have no idea who will come out on top in tonights race, we are only expecting a very long and suspense-filled evening.  So, relax, get comfortable in your chairs, or if you have not voted yet, get out to your polling places, take friends and family with you, make your voices heard, and then come back and join us to find out who will win this year's race for the White House.  

So, here it is, the national electoral map, empty now but we will soon be filling it in with important projections.  Keep in mind that states won by president Obama will be colored in red and states won by Governor Daniels will be colored in blue.  

The White House hangs in the balance, and we are upon the hour of 7:00 pm in the east, and we are prepared to make our first calls of the 2012 presidential election.

[Penelope]

Spoiler Alert: Daniels will win in a close election.

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With six states up for grabs at this initial hour of poll closings, our first projections of the evening are no surprises.  Governor Mitch Daniels has scored a lopsided victory in Kentucky winning its 8 electoral votes, and president Obama has breezed to an easy triumph in the state of Vermont, carrying its 3 electoral votes.  

Now you'll notice, as we post these results on our electoral map, we have several too-early-to-call and too-clost to call states, which we have colored in green, and we will briefly go through some preliminary returns in these states.

Let's start with the very important state of Florida.  This state has of course been trending narrowly Daniels' way ever since he picked Senator Rubio as his running mate, though president Obama has campaigned hard here nonetheless.  As the polls close here and with 2% of the precincts reporting, president Obama has a narrow three point lead over Governor Daniels.  Now, keep in mind, these numbers are primarily based out of returns coming in from Broward and Palm Beach counties, where the president is doing well so far, but at the same time Governor Daniels is winning big in Polk and Breverd.  We are waiting to see if, on the one hand, Daniels can at all hold down the losses in Palm Beach and Miami-Dade while at the same time running up big totals of his own in Sarasota and Lee counties, still no numbers from there.  And of course, the all-important I-4 corridor and Volusia county will prove crucial as well.  The Daniels campaign was hoping to clip off Hillsborough county too, or at least make things there very tight, no returns from here yet either.  Too close to call in Florida.

We move now to a razor-thin state in the polls, Virginia, which Governor Daniels is hoping very much to win back for the GOP after president Obama won it here for the Democrats for the first time since 1964.  With 1% of precincts reporting, we have the president leading by about one and a half percent.  Remember, the key to president Obama's big victory here in 2008 were big returns in Fairfax and Prince William counties in the north in addition to a big win in Suffolk county here in the south coupled with a close win in neighboring Chesapeake county and pulling very, very close to John McCain in Virginia Beach, all this in order to offset heavy losses in most of western Virginia.  Well, at this moment, we have the president once again drawing good support in Fairfax, but not doing so well in Chesapeake, and, at least in very early numbers, Governor Daniels doing very well in Virginia Beach.  This will be a nail-biter state all through the evening, and we'll certainly keep you posted.  Too close to call is Virginia.

Now to Governor Daniels' own state of Indiana, a state the president pulled a massive upset in when he won the presidency four years ago.  Here, a different distinction; too early to call.  So far, Governor Daniels is ahead as you can see by about six points with five percent of the precincts reporting, vastly outperforming John McCain in most of the state from four years ago.  We do want to wait and see what kinds of actual numbers come out of Lake, Porter and St. Joseph counties in the northwest, along even with votes in Marion and the very curious Vigo county from 2008 before we call the state.  Governor Daniels is of course expected to win here but we don't want to make any calls before we are absolutely certain.

The same distinction, too early to call, applies to South Carolina.  Daniels was polling decisively ahead here for months and we don't expect a surprise, but we will wait for some returns to go with our exit polling numbers before we make some kind of determination  there.
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It is now 7:32 in the east and we can definitively project that Governor Mitch Daniels will win the state of South Carolina.  No surprise here.  Let's update our electoral map now, with Governor Daniels having won Kentucky and South Carolina and president Obama winning Vermont.  Below the map you can see the total electoral vote count so far.

Daniels       17
Obama        3
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At 7:51 now and we are comfortable making our next call of the night in the 2012 presidential race, a call the Republicans are sure to be happy about.  Mitch Daniels will win the 11 electoral votes of his own state of Indiana, reclaiming that state from the hands of the president.  It looks like Daniels has regained many of the counties the president won in mid-state and downstate Indiana, is running up big margins in the rural counties with much better turnout than last time, and it looks like he will win Starke and LaPorter counties in the northwest.  We have enough now to claim that Governor Daniels will win the state.  And here is our updated electoral map.

Daniels      28
Obama       3

270 electoral votes are needed to win the presidency.  And we are fast coming up on the hour of 8:00 pm in the east, an hour that may tell us a very, very great deal about the outcome of this presidential race, as 20 states plus the District of Columbia will close their polls at the top of the hour.  Some of these states carry handsome electoral vote rewards, and among these, specifically Pennsylvania, Ohio and North Carolina are key to the outcome of this historic race for the presidency of the United States.

[anvi]

It is now 8:00 pm in the east, and we have some important calls in the race for the White House to make for you now, so let's get right to them.

As expected, president Obama will carry his adopted home state of Illinois and its 20 electoral votes.  No surprise here at all, but one thing of note.  Though the president was able to come away with an easy win here, Daniels, besides scoring a big victory in Lee county, was able to win back a number of counties in north central Illinois, he won back Vermillion county on the eastern edge of the state, and outperformed McCain in every downstate county except Jackson and Alexander from four years ago.  But, no matter in the end, Obama wins in Illinois.

Massachusetts goes into the president's column as well, 13 more electoral votes.

Mitch Daniels on the board again, coming away with a convincing victory in the state of Tennessee.  Democrats have wanted to pick up their numbers in the border states' region for some years, but in spite of some wins in the southwest and in Davidson county, Daniels carries it big, 11 more electoral votes for the Indiana Governor.

The solid Democratic state of Maryland once again offers its 10 electoral votes to president Obama.

As you can recall from the primary season, former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty and Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann, both from this state, made attempts to win the GOP nomination, the former making a longer bid than the latter.  But all in the Republican party had hoped that the increased excitement would translate into a more competitive state here in the general election.  Governor Daniels did indeed make impressive gains in some counties, but the president continued to show strong support in the 4th and 5th districts.  We can project at the end of this evening, president Obama will win the 10 electoral votes offered by the state of Minnesota.  

Many political observers after 2010 speculated that Wisconsin might be a swing state this year, after Governor Scott Walker swept into office and Congressman Paul Ryan's budget became the Republican calling card and Independents flocked to the polls for GOP candidates.  But after Walker's daring actions against Wisconsin state employees and after some rough criticism of Ryan's budget in the following year, numbers for Obama surged in Wisconsin and have stayed strong since.  Despite Governor Daniels' popularity in the midwest, it did not translate enough here this year.  Daniels reclaimed some territory in the eastern part of the state, but big returns in Dane keep the state in the Democrats' hands.  Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes go to Obama.  You can bet that the White House is happy about the early calls of these states tonight, as both had to be held in order to safeguard the president's chances for reelection.  

Daniels wins handily in Alabama and adds 9 more electoral votes to his column.  There was some minor concern among observers that Daniels and Rubio would not be so strong in the deep south, but apart from the normal belt of counties across the midriff of the state that vote Democratic, the GOP ticket once again has no trouble here.  Alabama: Daniels.

And for the second general election in a row, it appears that president Obama will be absolutely shut out in the state of Oklahoma.  He lost all of the state's counties last time, and things appear to be heading in that direction again.  Daniels takes the 7 electoral votes of Oklahoma.

The president wins Connecticut and its 7 electoral votes.  It has now been twenty four years since the GOP won in Connecticut, and this year was not competitive in the state either.

We can project at this hour that 3 of Main's 4 electoral votes will be won by president Obama.  This is an expected call for election nights at this point in time, but tonight we have had quite an interesting situation.  Daniels handily won Piscataquis county and it does appear that he will win Washington county on the coast as well, and Obama did not do nearly as well in Arroostook and Penobscot as he had hoped, so the race between the two candidates in the state's second congressional district seems at this early stage, in terms of the raw vote count, to be close.  We expect the president to come out of this with all of Main's electoral votes when the night is over, but so far, we can only give him 3.  As we will see further in a moment when we returned to states that are as yet too close to call, Daniels is showing some strength in the upper part of New England tonight.

The vice-president, Joe Biden, for the second time sees his state of Delaware support his ticket, 3 electoral votes for the president here.

Another landslide victory for president Obama in the District of Columbia.  He will win it this year by somewhat less than 90%, but still a decisive victory.

In 2008, some GOP observers worried that, in the huge Democratic wave of that year, North Dakota might swing toward the Democrats, but no worries about that this time around.  The popular former governor John Hoeven who is now a U.S. Senator from the state campaigned for the Republican ticket here, and with the oil boom still raging and unemployment low, the state's citizens apparently had no reason to object to his persuasion.  Double digit victory for Daniels, 3 more electoral votes.  

And finally one of the most conservative states in the country, Wyoming, offers its 3 electoral votes to Daniels-Rubio.

Now these are important calls, and we will update the electoral vote totals for you at this hour, but, as you look at the map, you'll quickly see that what has not yet been counted speaks louder than what has yet to be counted.  Let's show you that map now, with Obama's states and totals in red, Daniels' states and totals in blue, and states where the polls have closed but have not yet been called in green.

Obama        80
Daniels        61

As you can see, the president has jumped out to a slim lead on the electoral map as of now.  But let's talk about these other very important states, and let's start this time with states we are deeming "too early to call" before we move to states that are "too close to call."

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Our exit polling suggests that Daniels has the advantage in Georgia, but with only 4% of the precincts there reporting, we do want to see in terms of actual returns how Obama does in places like Chatham county compared to how Daniels performs in the counties in the north and west before we make a final projection.  As you can see, Daniels leading by thirteen at the moment, looks good for him, but we want to count some real votes before we make a call.

Now, as we suggested earlier, the polling has been closer, too close for complete comfort as far as the president's people are concerned, than expected in Michigan up until tonight.  We have nine percent of precincts reporting at this hour, the president is ahead, as you can see, by about four percentage points.  We do expect president Obama to come out a winner in Michigan tonight, but there are some returns up there worth counting first.  Governor Daniels is doing exceptionally well in the northwestern part of the state, everywhere except Marquette and Delta counties, as well as in the eastern edge of Michigan, and at least so far, a pitched battle is being waged in Macomb county.  We need to wait and see what kinds of numbers Obama gets in the Detroit area and neighboring counties to offset these surges by Daniels.  Michigan, at this hour, is too early to call!

We are also saying at this hour that New Jersey is too early to call.  Polling has suggested all along that the president would carry New Jersey, but the Daniels momentum and the popularity of Governor Christi supporting him there has tightened the race up considerably in big counties like Somerset and Monmouth, so, though the president currently leads by nine points with eight percent of the precincts reporting in, we're going to hold off and count some more votes here too.

We are confidently expecting Arkansas to go into Governor Daniels' pocket this evening; he was leading by almost twenty points here going into election night and the exit polls seem to confirm that, but we have as yet had no precincts report, so we will hold off in calling this state for the moment.

We do not have any votes as of yet out of the states of Ohio and Pennsylvania at all, and so both of these most crucial of battleground states remain too close to call at this hour.  Remember four years ago, the high drama as Pennsylvania was called very early for then-Senator Obama, and only about an hour or so later came Ohio, and those two victories pretty much sealed the election, long before the polls in the western part of the country actually closed.  We expect nothing like that tonight, these two states and several others will most likely keep us up a long time.  Again, no precincts reporting as of yet, so we can't give you any margins or tell you who is strong or weak in which areas, we will get those numbers to you as we receive them.  Very tense moments for the Obama and Daniels campaigns tonight as they await the incoming results from these states.  Pennsylvania, of course, is very crucial, practically vital, to president Obama's reelection chances, since if he does not win here, it's very hard indeed to see how he can be reelected to a second term.

We do have some early numbers from North Carolina, but only 2% of the precincts have so far reported.  Things looking rather good for Governor Daniels at the moment, as you see there, leading by about six points over the president, but it's only small counties in the eastern part of the state sending us information at the moment.  The Democrats of course held their national convention here in the summer, trying to provide a boost to a badly ailing economy.  But voters in exit polls today here saying jobs are more important to them than conventions, so we'll have to see if the president can hold his ground here.

Now look at this, New Hampshire at this hour too close to call!  The Daniels campaign is really hoping that it can steal the 4 electoral votes from this state tonight.  Daniels looks like he will win back some territory here, as he is doing very well in the state's formerly Republican-leaning eastern counties, Rockingham, Carroll and Belknap, while the president is posting good numbers in the southwest.  All eyes are fixed on New Hampshire, with Obama posting only a three-pont edge at the moment in a state where last time he won every county.  It will be really interesting to see how Coos county in the north turns out here.  
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8:24 in the east and we have another call for you on this election night.  As expected, the state of Arkansas and its 6 electoral votes go to Governor Daniels.

Obama       80
Daniels       67
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8:32

Another projection in the presidential race, a big one, out of the state of Georgia.  Governor Daniels continues his good showing in the south, as we predict he will handily win the state by more than double of what John McCain did four years ago, in another indication early tonight of the strength behind the GOP ticket.  16 big electoral votes go into the Daniels column, and with that, he recaptures the lead on the electoral map.

Daniels        83
Obama        80
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8:46

In a seesaw, and incredibly close battle for the White House on this election night of 2012, we have another call for you.  New Jersey and its 14 electoral votes go to president Obama.  Despite some setbacks here, the president still showing very big numbers in Atlantic, Cumberland. Camden and even Middlesex counties.  The Obama campaign obviously hoping some of these kinds of numbers spill over into southeastern Pennsylvania, where he is trying to hold down Daniels' numbers in Philadelphia and its suburbs.  But, for the moment, the president reclaims the lead on the electoral map.

Obama      94
Daniels      83

It must really be biting at the heels of the president's campaign staff in the White House tonight that they have not yet gotten a call from Michigan or New Hampshire, but one thing is for sure; voters in the west tonight will be motivated as ever to get to the polls and vote for their candidate; this race may very well be decided tonight by the very last votes, so the tighter it is early, the more turnout in the west will be enhanced.  

Some huge states still hanging in the balance as we approach the 9:00 pm mark: Ohio is showing a two-point lead for Daniels with three percent of the precincts reporting, and the Indiana governor has moved out to a seven point lead in North Carolina, still very few votes actually counted so far.  Florida, the president leads by 3% with nine percent of precincts reporting, and Obama has also moved into a two and a half point lead in Virginia, still way too early to call there.  We understand at this early stage of the vote-counting in Pennsylvania that the president is managing to strike big numbers in Philadelphia proper, but Daniels is winning 19% of the vote there as of this hour, and so far, no numbers from the major suburbs of the city nor from Pittsburgh.  We will of course keep you posted of any important new developments.

We are now approaching 9:00 pm on the east coast, with huge states like Texas and New York ready to to close their polls.

[anvi]

9:00 pm in the east on election night 2012, and nine more states have just closed their polls, and we have some calls as well as some important updates for you now  First, the states we can call at this hour.

The Empire State of New York casts its 29 big electoral votes for president Obama.  Again we were expecting this result.  Governor Daniels did very well in upstate New York, but the president, running up big numbers in the Big Apple and its environs, takes the state tonight.  New York: Obama

Louisiana goes big for Governor Daniels; again another of the states in the likely column tonight turns out just as the pre-election polls predicted.  9 electoral votes more for Governor Daniels.

And Governor Daniels completes his sweep of the deep south tonight, to the delight of his campaign.  6 electoral votes go to him from the state of Mississippi. 

And another call from the midwest for Governor Daniels now; the faithfully Republican state of Kansas gives its 6 electoral votes to the GOP ticket again in 2012.

Another big win for Daniels tonight in West Virginia, 5 more electoral votes for the Indiana governor.  Twenty-five years ago, even in the golden days of electoral politics for the GOP, West Virginia used to be a reliable state for the Democrats.  But now, for four elections in a row, it has strongly supported the GOP.  West Virginia, Daniels.

Rhode Island votes to the president tonight, 4 electoral votes for Obama here.

And we have a result on that one outstanding electoral vote in Maine at this hour; the margin in the end was much narrower than he had planned, but the president wins it, and so all 4 of Maine's electoral votes are cashed in by the White House.

Here is our updated electoral map as of this moment, with president Obama maintaining a very slim lead in this race, but there are a lot of very important states out there yet to be counted and yet to close their polls.

Obama      128
Daniels      108

The Lone Star State of Texas got several more electoral votes since the past census, it is up to 38, and those are as yet undecided.  We certainly expect Governor Daniels to do very well here, as a Democrat has not won the state since president Carter did so in 1976.  But so far, Governor Daniels has only s four point lead with ten percent of the precincts reporting and president Obama doing reasonably well in the southern part of the state, so we will count some more actual votes until we make a projection.

Another state where we are expecting Daniels to do well is Missouri.  He has been leading by around nine points in pre-election polls and has mounted a much more vigorous campaign here than John McCain did four years ago when he almost lost the state to Obama.  But again, we have only votes in the east counted so far, Daniels very slightly ahead, but we will see what the raw numbers tell us as we move along.

We have had no precincts at all report from South Dakota as of yet; again another practically certain win in wheat country for the Daniels camp, but we will count 'em up a bit before we make any projection.

Now, we want to update you also on some key states that we have been keeping a close eye on all night here, states that very could decide the presidential race in the winner's favor tonight.

With 46% of precincts reporting, we have Governor Daniels and Mark Rubio with a three point lead over Obama and Biden in the state of Florida.  Daniels as you see performing well in the I-4 corridor which president Bush did in winning the state in both his races, and in addition, the GOP ticket is giving the president a real run for his money in Hillsborough and Orange counties in the west and even in Volusia county in the east.  We do not as yet have too many numbers from either Miami-Dade, a traditionally big Democratic stronghold, or from the north, and northwest counties of Florida, where Daniels and Rubio look to do very well.  But, at this hour, Daniels with a slight lead in Florida.

In Ohio, look at this, with 41% of precincts reporting, Daniels leading by 1%, a mere 30,000 votes, but still a long way to go before we can probably call this state.  The president seems to be pulling in fewer votes in the northern and eastern edge of the state than he did four years ago, and Daniels is doing quite well in Tuscarawas, Belmont and Jefferson counties where the president won four years ago.  A lot might ride for the president tonight on how well he is able to do in the vital counties of Franklin, Montgomery and Hamilton.  Too close to call in Ohio.

Virginia, 53% of precincts reporting, and here appears to be somewhat better news for the president so far.  Remember, Virginia has not been plagued by some of the very difficult unemployment numbers we have seen in other states, and the president and his team have mounted an aggressive campaign here.  Obama has put up very big numbers in Fairfax, he is doing well in Suffolk City and is holding his own in Albemarie county in the middle of the state despite setbacks elsewhere.  Obama leads by just over 4%, but still a lot of counting to do in the western part of the state, and we'll see if it's enough for Governor Daniels to catch up. 

[anvi]

9:06 in the east, and we are able to make a call that is going to come as a sigh of relief to the president.  We project that Michigan, and its 16 electoral votes will go to Obama tonight.  A still-undecided Macomb county and strong showings by Daniels made it close, but solid numbers for the president in the southeast clinch it.  Obama wins Michigan.  And with that, we update our electoral map, and the president's lead widens to 36 electoral votes, but as you can see, Texas itself can close the gap and then some for Governor Daniels, so this race for the presidency is still wide open.

Obama       144
Daniels       108

[anvi]

9:17 pm on the east coast now, and we can project that the state of South Dakota, as expected, will be won by Governor Daniels, and that puts 3 more electoral votes in his till.  And with that, he is moving....

Wait, wait, we are just getting word of one of the very important calls we will make on this night, and it was one the Republicans had been hoping for.  Governor Mitch Daniels has reclaimed for the GOP tonight the state of North Carolina.  This is a huge win, and with it, Daniels brings in 15 more very crucial electoral votes in this race.  It will not, by our estimates, be a huge victory, not all the precincts have reported in yet.  But the difference this year seems to have been that, while the president did typically well in the Richmond area, he just did not get the turnout in the Wake and Cumberland areas that he needed to reduplicate his upset win in this state when he was elected four years ago.  Unemployment in the state has continued to be in the upper 9% range, about a point and a half higher than the national average, and that really hurt the president in this state, and may, may hurt him in other key states as well.  A huge and even necessary victory for Governor Daniels in North Carolina tonight, and let's take a look at our electoral map now.

Obama      144
Daniels      126

A mere 15 electoral votes now separate the candidates, and with what appear to be some very good states for Daniels in the offing, president Obama now finds himself in the fight of his life as he tries to win a second term, and Governor Daniels now appears to have some strong momentum.  Once again, if you're in the west where the polls are still open, your vote is now more important than it perhaps has ever been, so get to your polling places, because your vote may, and this is no exaggeration, may be the one that makes the big difference this evening. 

[anvi]

9:47 pm in the east, and we have a call.  Texas has gone for Governor Daniels.  As mentioned at the top of the hour, this is no surprise at all, but it certainly comes at a critical point in the evening.  38 electoral votes from the Lone Star State go to the Daniels camp, and the Indiana governor now officially leads president Obama in the race for the White House on the electoral map.

Daniels       164
Obama       144
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We are only a few short minutes away from 10:00 pm in the east, when another five key states close their polls.  But at 9:57 pm, we have some more very important news.  Obama wins New Hampshire.  Something of an upset here.  This was a state very much in question for the president going into tonight's race; Daniels took away his first victory in the primary season in New Hampshire, upsetting former Governor Romney here in January, and the polls slightly favored Governor Daniels going into tonight.   We did not feel comfortable making a call until a very, very late stage of the actual counting.  But, with a little more than 98% of the precincts reporting, the president will carry the state by what looks like will end up being about two and a half percent.  It appears that the president's move toward the political center in the budget deals of the last year and a half did help him regain some ground with independent voters in New Hampshire even though it may have hurt him with some Democrats in other states, while he continued to do well with women and young voters here.  The president suffered some serious setbacks on the eastern edge of the state, but continued to perform well in the southwest and pulled out a very narrow one-and-a-half point win in Coos county in the north.  Now, New Hampshire's 4 electoral votes may not sound like much, but in an election this close, obviously every single vote does count.  So as we color New Hampshire red for what must be a very relieved president Obama at this moment, here is our updated electoral map.

Daniels           164
Obama           148

And now, very quickly, we move to some more calls as we hit the mark of 10:00 pm.

[anvi]

Five more states have just closed their polls, and once again we have a sense of how close tonight's election really is, as we can at the top of the hour only make calls in two of them.

Utah hands a major victory to Governor Daniels tonight, 6 more electoral votes go in his column.  

For the second time in as many presidential races, president Obama has won the state of New Mexico; he had almost a double-digit lead going into tonight here, and that has translated into a victory.  Now, let's look at our updated electoral map.

Daniels            170
Obama            153

Colorado is a state that Governor Daniels has spent some time trying to turn back to the GOP ticket, and as of this hour it is too close to call.  The traditional divide in Colorado between Denver-Boulder and Colorado Springs seems to be repeating itself tonight, and we will keep a close eye on the numbers.  One question about Colorado going into tonight has been whether the president, who received somewhat soft support from Hispanic voters in the state four years ago, would be able to get them to come out for him this time, especially with Marco Rubio on the Republican ticket.  With one percent of the precincts reporting, we have no indication yet, Daniels with a small lead at this moment.  9 electoral votes at stake here.

One of the several "big little states" up for grabs tonight is Iowa.  So far, with 17% of precincts reporting, president Obama has, as you can see, a five point lead over Governor Daniels, but most of these votes are coming from eastern Iowa and the Des Moines, Cedar Rapids and Iowa City areas, where Obama is doing well but not as well as in 2008.  Many of the voters who supported the president in this state in 2008, self-described moderates making less than $50,000 a year, voted for him because they were dissatisfied with the economy, and they are even more so today, but since the jobless rate in Iowa is pretty modest, they have not entirely turned away from the president, splitting their votes according to exit polls pretty evenly between the two candidates.  We will be watching this state close, especially returns from western Iowa.

We have no votes reported out of Montana as of yet, and so we will wait for some numbers from this state, which was registering close to a ten point lead in the polls for Governor Daniels as recently as yesterday.  Though we are expecting Montana to break for Daniels, certainly Colorado and Iowa are two very crucial states tonight.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Okay, this is amazing.

[anvi]

10:19 pm Eastern

As we come back from a commercial break, we have major news in the presidential election of 2012, 29 electoral votes worth of news, to be precise.  With 86% of the precincts reporting, we can now project that the state of Florida will be won by Mitch Daniels and Marco Rubio.  The decision by Daniels to pick the relatively inexperienced Senator Rubio as his running mate was obvious to everyone as a bid to win Florida, though criticized by some as a questionable choice for a Vice-Presidential candidate nonetheless.  Well, at least in terms of election strategy, Governor Daniels' decision has been vindicated tonight.  Senator Rubio, a Cuban-American who partly grew up in Miami and represented the 111th district in Miami in the Florida state legislature really brought in votes in Miami-Dade and curbed the president's edge in that most important of counties.  In the meantime, the GOP strategy in the rest of the state worked like a charm, they ran up the numbers in Sarasota and Polk, pulled almost even in Hillsborough and drew big numbers in the northern part of the state.  

With this important victory, Governor Daniels has widened his electoral college lead over president Obama, and the road to 270 electoral votes becomes that much shorter for the Indiana governor.

Daniels          199
Obama          153

The GOP had a lot of electoral ground to make up this year in order to take back the presidency, but as you can see, Governor Daniels has already made tremendous progress.  This is the third state he has won tonight that president Obama took in 2008, the other two being North Carolina and Indiana.  How many more will he win?  And now, the president faces a very steep uphill climb to maintain his hold on the office.  But the election is far from over, with important big and small states still counting their votes, and with the huge electoral prize of California set to close its polls about forty minutes from now, this race is still far from decided.  But, for the moment, a major win for Daniels, and one of the biggest hurdles to his winning the presidency tonight has been cleared.

[anvi]

And now, at 10:32 pm in the east, we can make another very important projection in the 2012 race for the presidency of the United States.  It was a projection that, as far as the White House is concerned, they had to wait far too tensely and far too long for, but certainly better late than never.  President Obama has once again emerged the winner in the state of Pennsylvania.  20 absolutely crucial electoral votes go into the president's column tonight in what looks like a very, very close race in the state.  The president appears to have gotten 81% in Philadelphia, below his returns there last time, but when combined with good wins in the suburban counties of Montgomery and Lehigh and a big win in Pittsburgh, it will be enough to fend of a surging Daniels.  With 93% of the precincts reporting, we estimate that when all the votes are tallied, the president will carry the state by just under 4%.  On a nationwide scale, those are not numbers that the Obama team can exactly take comfort in, especially when it comes to how things may, may turn out in the neighboring state of Ohio, but for this exact moment, they are happy.  The unequivocally needed Pennsylvania's electoral votes, they now have them, and they are, though still behind, nonetheless yet in this race.  Color the state red for the president, and here is where our electoral map stands.

Daniels          199
Obama          173
....................

10:50 pm Eastern Standard Time

We have an early, well, at least compared to our last presidential election, call tonight from the state of Missouri.  Governor Daniels had been showing very strongly in the polls all they way up to election day, and this time the polls do not disappoint him.  Daniels wins the 10 electoral votes of the Show-Me state.  He vastly outperforms John McCain's result here from four years ago, holding the president to a win in the St. Louis area but actually winning back Jefferson county and tallying big numbers indeed from the remainder of the state.  Daniels' electoral vote lead has now increased by that much over the president, and he is the first tonight to break into 200 plus electoral vote territory.  The Obama team must be as nervous as you can possibly imagine going into the eleven o'clock hour trailing in the electoral college by 37 very daunting votes.

Daniels           209
Obama           173

We are now just moments away from poll closings in the west.  California, Washington, Arizona, Oregon, Nevada, Idaho, and Hawai'i along with Nebraska will be done voting in a few minutes, and at that time, we will have some more crucial results to report.

[anvi]

It is now 11:00 pm in the east.  Four years ago, at this exact hour, we were already able to declare that Barack Obama had become the 44th president of the United States.  A very different story prevails tonight; no winner yet in the presidential race of 2012, still a hotly contested battle.  But we do have some major projections now, so let's get right to them.

The whopping 55 electoral votes of the largest state in the country, California, go as expected to president Obama.  Better showing by Daniels than McCain in this state four years ago, but the president still wins walking away here.  California, Obama.

Obama the winner in the state of Washington and its 11 electoral votes.  Looks like Daniels will shave a few points off the president's victory last time here too, but still a double-digit decision likely in Washington.

Early voting in Oregon indicated an edge for the president, and that margin has widened in the vote tallies from today.  7 more electoral votes for the president here.

We go to Nebraska now, and this time all five of its electoral votes go very easily for Governor Daniels.  Remember, just a short time ago, the Nebraska state legislature voted to restore the state's electoral selection system to a "winner-take-all" format, after the president picked off Nebraska's 2nd congressional district in 2008 when this state, like Maine, split its electors.  Big double-digit win here for Daniels, and with it he completes his sweep of the central row of states from the north to the south of the country.

Daniels the winner in Idaho with its 4 electoral votes.  Idaho of course a conservative stalwart, and Daniels may be coming away tonight with some 63% of its vote.

Another gimme state tonight: president Obama rolls to victory in the state of his birth, Hawai'i.  4 electoral votes come sailing in from the middle of the Pacific for the president.

And, at the top of the hour, we are able to call the state of Montana for Governor Daniels now, and he takes its 3 electoral votes.

With this big victory in California, President Obama has moved back into the lead on the electoral college map.

Obama           251
Daniels           221

Now, as you can see, the president has moved to well within striking distance of reelection, needing only 19 more electoral votes to capture his second term in the White House.  Governor Daniels needs 49 electoral votes to win.  But notice, we have not been able to make any projections in two states that just closed, Arizona and Nevada, we have no data from them yet.  Alaska will not close its polls for another hour, they are still voting there.  We have not yet been able to project a winner in the incredibly close states of Ohio, Virginia and Iowa, there is hardly a sliver of moonlight now between president Obama and Governor Daniels in these states--exceedingly close votes in all of them.  That means that, at this moment, there are seven states, which are worth a total of 66 electoral votes, that will decide the 2012 battle for the White House.  Governor Daniels can still win, but he needs to capture the lion's share of the electoral votes left on the table.  As a matter of fact, in order to win outright, Daniels absolutely must capture Ohio, because were the president to somehow triumph in Ohio tonight, that would put him already at 269 electoral votes.  Now, what might happen if Daniels does not win Ohio?  This is where it all gets very interesting.

Now here, we have what must still be considered a very unlikely possibility, but a fascinating one that enthusiasts have been pouring over for some time in playing with the electoral map.  An electoral college tie is still, yes still, an actual possibility.  As just mentioned, if the president wins Ohio, that would put him at 269, one electoral vote short of victory.  Now, if Daniels were to sweep all the other states, that would capture him 48 electoral votes, and give him, look at that, 269 electoral votes.  In that case, the race would, by constitutional mandate, be decided by the House of Representatives of the United States.  The Republicans of course still control the House, and they would almost certainly give the election to the Indiana governor.  Amazing things could still happen here.

However, returning to more likely possibilities, if Daniels can win, say, Ohio and Virginia, that would give him a total of 31 more electoral votes and put him at 252, and that would leave him only eighteen votes away from winning this historic election.  Then, it's really anybody's guess as to who will win the electoral majority of the remaining states.  

We fully expected going into tonight that this race would come down to the wire, and we are here, and now it's a live wire.  The whole world now has its eyes on Ohio, Virginia, Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, and Alaska.  They literally will decide where the world will go in the next four years.  

[anvi]

11:24 Eastern Standard Time

High drama continues here on election night 2012.  All news that comes in from now on will be major news, but what we have for you now is especially important.

With 96% of precincts reporting, we can now project that Governor Mitch Daniels...will win the state of Ohio.  This is one of the handful of states that saw the most of both candidates during the campaign, both of them made several stops here as late as yesterday, but in the end, we are able to predict that when all the votes are counted, Daniels will clinch it by what will likely end up being about 2% of the vote.  Only about 115,000 votes separate Daniels and Obama right now.  But the story in Ohio seems to be one of turnout.  Daniels was really able to put up very strong numbers in counties where Republicans normally do well, along the central axis of the state, as well as counties in the southwest like Warren and Brown.  The president did exceedingly well in Franklin.  But in other parts of the state, like the northeastern edge and finally tonight in Hamilton, the votes just didn't come out for him like they did in 2008; he is winning in these areas, but by dramatically decreased margins.  As we have noted on several occasions going into this hour, these areas of Ohio are still plagued by high unemployment numbers, and this is why that matters.  A seismic win here for Daniels tonight.  

Now if you need any reminder of why this victory is so significant, let's put it up on our electoral map here and look at our totals again.

Obama          251
Daniels          239

As always gets mentioned when discussing Ohio on nights like this, no Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio.  But in tonight's case, it is an especially big prize, as, first of all, it places only 12 electoral votes between Daniels and the president.  48 electoral votes remain to be decided among half a dozen states.  Now, at this moment, Daniels' numbers do look good in Arizona, and going into tonight, Daniels had a massive lead over the president in Alaska.  If Daniels were to win these two states, that would bring him 14 more electoral votes and allow him to overtake the president in the electoral college.  The lead has changed back and forth on several occasions already tonight, and it very well may do so again, and even decisively, at this very late stage of the vote count.

Now, let's pause for a second as we look at the national map, just in terms of speculation, let's say that happens; let's say Daniels does carry the states of Arizona and Alaska as expected.  That would give him 253 electoral electoral votes to Obama's 251.  That would leave 34 electoral votes still to be claimed.  Now the way those votes are distributed between the four remaining states, Virginia with 13, Colorado with 9, Iowa with 6 and Nevada with 6, there is no longer any possibility for an electoral college tie, that possibility is now officially off the table, the math just doesn't allow it.  Now, these four states of Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, and Nevada are showing very close numbers at the moment, and a recount in one of them is not off the table yet.  But, just to put this all in perspective, one of the other major implications of Daniels' victory in Ohio is that it has ensured that, at least in terms of the electoral college this year, there will be a clear winner in the race for the presidency, even if by the smallest of margins.

[anvi]

Now, while we have a moment here and votes are being counted, let's take a look at what we have in terms of returns from these four crucial states, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and Nevada so far.

In Virginia, we have 95% of precincts reporting fully, they have been counting since the first poll closings at 7:00 pm eastern tonight, and it is a tit-for-tat race.  As you can see, president Obama hanging on by his fingernails to a 51.3%-48.4% lead right now.  The president has turned in a good, but not a stellar performance in Fairfax, winning a little over 57% of the vote there so far, but we do not yet have all the votes counted from Fairfax.  Obama has barely edged by a resurgent Daniels in Loudoun, good turnout in both counties.  For his part, Daniels has won over 50% of the vote in both Virginia Beach and Chesapeake, and it looks like he has almost tied the president in Suffolk City.  The president managed to hold on to a healthy victory in Albamarie county in the center of the state, but Daniels ran up the numbers in counties like Fauquier, Rockingham, Augusta, Badford and Franklin.  We are waiting on full reports from the far eastern counties of Washington, Scott and Buchanan, whee Daniels is expected to have several more big victories, as well as on some final precincts in Fairfax.  Can president Obama hang on to his very loose grip on the state, or will the Old Dominion return to the Grand Old Party at this crucial hour?  We expect to make a call here within the hour.

In Colorado, we have 45% of precincts reporting, and we are seeing some well-worn patterns in the state.  Obama winning big in Denver and Boulder, the Indiana governor doing very well in Colorado Springs.  We are still awaiting returns from Pueblo so that we can compare them to heavy votes being cast on the western and eastern sides of Colorado for Daniels.  But, at this hour, you see the president is maintaining an edge, 52%-46%, but again, less than half of the precincts are in, and we'll keep an eye closely fixed on developments here.

Iowa has been counting votes since last hour, 59% of their precincts have reported and at this moment, it seems as if, despite Governor Daniels' popularity here based on his hailing from a state in the region, the president may, just may, have a little too much strength here.  The president showing very healthy margins in the counties of Johnson, Des Moines, Polk and Linn.  Now Daniels is vastly outperforming John McCain from four years ago in the western part of the state so far, in Pottawatami and Woodbury, though not all of the precincts have reported from here, yet.  But, even so, it may not be enough.  With several other important states looking very much within Daniels' reach, the president needs every ounce of strength he can muster, every electoral vote he can get.  Again, we are watching along with you, and counting the votes as they are reported.

Now, here is where we may have a crucially important standoff, the state of Nevada.  Unemployment in Nevada continues to be almost unbearable, still over 11% officially, but many are thought to have given up looking for work for some time now, the right might even be higher.  Nevada also still carries the unhappy distinction of being the foreclosure capital of the country, and we are not able to gauge from our exit polling how many votes foreclosed homes, abandoned homes and so forth, may effect.  As has been emphasized many times, Nevada does have early voting, they've been voting for a bit here before election day, and those early totals show a virtual tie, just a razor-thin margin for the president at this hour, in the early voting only, mind you.  In terms of votes cast today, Nevada has been counting since the top of the hour, and we only have as yet 9% of precincts reporting.  Look at this, so far Daniels has a four point lead here, but keep in mind these are numbers form counties in the east like Elko and Nye, which are expected to go big for Daniels; only a few votes have trickled in so far from Cass, and nothing at all yet from Washoe, which may very well be the county to watch tonight, might decide which direction the state goes. 

Stay tuned as our coverage of this historic and incredibly close 2012 presidential race continues.     

[anvi]

It is now midnight Eastern Standard Time, and we are officially beginning Day Two of our election coverage of the 2012 presidential race.  The polls in all fifty states are now officially closed, all the votes that will be cast have been cast.  We are able at the top of this hour to make a projection, an entirely expected one.  Governor Mitch Daniels wins a landslide victory in the state of Alaska, and pockets at this possible hour of decision its 3 electoral votes.  We will put that up on the electoral map here, and show you our running total so far.

Obama         251
Daniels         242

A seemingly paltry nine electoral votes separate these candidates in the race to 270, which is required to win the presidency.  There are now only 45 electoral votes yet to be decided among five states where counting has yet to determine a winner.  President Obama needs to win 19 of those 45 electoral votes to secure reelection, Daniels needs 28 electoral votes to wrest the White House from Barack Obama's possession. 

Now one thing that is very much worth noting tonight.  If you think back to two recent presidential races that were this close, the controversial 2000 race between George W. Bush and then vice-president Al Gore and then the close 2004 contest between Bush, then running for his second term, and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, in the early morning hours of both of those battles, we were all essentially waiting for the outcome of one lone, big state.  In 2000, it was Florida, which then had 25 electoral votes, which was called falsely twice by all the networks that fateful evening, and then had to wait a historic 37 days before it was finally decided for Bush by the United States Supreme Court decision halting a recount the Gore campaign had sought.  Then, in 2004, it was Ohio, with what was then 20 electoral votes, which had to wait until early morning hours to be called definitively for president Bush.  Tonight, it is not one state whose results we await after our first evening voting has passed but five, five relatively smaller states in the Union, which hold the presidency in their hands.  And neither of these candidates will be able to raise their arms in victory by winning only one of these states at this point.  At the very minimum, the president has to win at least two of the five remaining states, here either the combinations of Virginia and Colorado or Colorado and Arizona, to put him over the top, and if he loses Virginia tonight, which might still happen, he would have to win three of the remaining four.  Governor Daniels at the moment has to win a minimum of three states to take the presidency, say Virginia, Arizona and any of the other states, to carry him over the 270 mark.  And if president Obama were to hold onto Virginia this evening, which also could well happen at this point, then the Indiana governor would absolutely have to win the states of Arizona and Colorado plus one of the two remaining states in order to be the victor, since if he lost both Virginia and Colorado or even Arizona and Colorado at this point, as mentioned, that would reelect the current president of the United States.  How fitting in our great democratic tradition that the states with even the fewest numbers of votes could choose who would occupy the highest office in the land and the course of everyone's future for the next four years. 

So, if you can bear it, stay up with us, as this race to the finish line could be decided quite literally at any moment.  No matter who you voted for or are rooting for, this will be a photo-finish for the presidency that none of us will soon forget.

[anvi]

1:38 am, and we have a projection to make for you in the state of Arizona.  Governor Mitch Daniels will pocket at this riveting hour the state's 11 electoral votes.  We took a little longer to call this one despite exit polls because, interestingly, Governor Daniels' numbers have turned out to be a little bit soft in the state.  If you'll recall, back in the early days of the primary season, when the California primary was held, former Governor Romney attacked Governor Daniels quite forcefully on what the former charged was a weak and permissive immigration policy, and those attacks resulted not only in Romney winning that crucial contest but in following up with a win in Arizona as well.  Those issues of course front and center in Arizona politics under the governorship of Jan Brewer here, and those attacks on Daniels may have had some lingering effects in terms of voters' confidence in him.  Added to this were president Obama's respectable numbers in Pima and Coconino counties and the lingering memory of his warm reception in the state in the immediate wake of the shooting of Congresswoman Gabby Giffords' almost two years ago.  Nonetheless, the state of Arizona, also suffering from a struggling economy and foreclosures, goes with Daniels tonight.  And with that, Governor Daniels, at this late hour, or what is now an early hour, officially takes the electoral vote lead lead once again in the race for the White House.

Daniels         253
Obama         251

Four states, holding 34 electoral votes between them, now will decide who will occupy the White House.  Daniels needs now only half, 17, of those remaining electoral votes to become the 45th president of the United States, and president Obama needs a majority, 19 of them, to break his way in order to win a second term as president.

[anvi]

2:14 am, EST; Wednesday, November 7th, 2012

Now, ladies and gentlemen, we want to delve into what is happening in Virginia at the moment, as we have 98%....Wait, one moment, repeat that for me please?

Obama wins Iowa.  Just like that, one of the four states remaining to be called in the 2012 presidential election falls into place, and it does so for the president.  This is how the vote appeared to be trending in Iowa for the past four or so hours, but since every electoral vote counts and we don't want to repeat any mistakes made in the barnburner 2000 race, we prefer this evening to wait it out and make absolutely sure that we are confident in our calls.  92% of Iowa's precincts have fully reported, and the president's numbers in key counties have reached levels where his four point lead cannot be surpassed.  So, there is is, 6 electoral votes in the Obama column.  And with that for the seventh, that's an accurate count, seventh time time tonight, the lead in the electoral college between the two candidates has changed hands.

Obama           257
Daniels           253

The president now needs just 13 of the remaining 28 electoral votes available to win his second term in the White House.  He could get them by winning Colorado and Nevada, or he could get them by winning Virginia alone.  And, with this crucial victory, Obama has put Daniels in a do-or-die situation, since now, listen closely, Daniels absolutely must win the Commonwealth of Virginia.  Even if Daniels were to win both Colorado and Nevada at this point, that would only get him to 268 electoral votes, so without Virginia, he will just not make it to the 270 threshold.  So, ladies and gentleman, this is what it all comes down to: if Daniels can eek out a win in Virginia, he will need to win one more state, either Colorado or Nevada will do, to become this nation's president.  If Obama wins Virginia, he will win the election, but if he loses Virginia, he must win both Colorado and Nevada in order to remain in the White House.

Now, these extraordinary developments make what we were just about to explain about Virginia all the more important.  Right before we just broke the news to you of Obama's victory in Iowa, here is what we were about to report.  With just over 98% of the precincts reporting, here is the raw, up-to-the-minute vote count we have in the state of Virginia.

Obama         1,861,248        49.6%
Daniels         1,810,683        48.3%

Difference         50,565          1.3%

With about 1% of Virginia's votes going to other candidates, these are the shares Obama and Daniels have right now according to figures we have received from polling stations.  Now, the complete vote totals that have yet to be counted in Virginia come from precincts in three counties, namely Montgomery county in the central western part of the state, and Washington and Russell counties, both on the very western tip of the state.  We don't know exactly how many people cast their ballots this evening in these three counties, but in Montgomery county in 2008, about 40,000 people cast votes, in Washington about 24,000 and in Russell about 11,000.  It is still possible that Governor Daniels, if he secures enough votes in these counties, may surpass president Obama or at least significantly gain on him.  But, the real twist in these figures actually may very well lie in the end not on who has more votes when all the ballots are counted, but rather on the margin of victory.  No matter who wins, there is a significant possibility that the difference between the two candidates in Virginia will end up being less than 1%.  That means that, before the election results are certified in a few days, the losing candidate has the option of requesting a recount.  There is no automatic recount in Virginia, but if the final margin of error between the winning and losing candidate is 1% or less, the vanquished can request a recount, and you can bet your bottom dollar that, whoever does request it, the state will feel compelled to grant the request.  Bottom line, it is possible, very, very possible, that we may not have a winner in the presidential race, not only before sunrise this morning, but, as in the epic and nationally chaotic climax of the Bush-Gore 2000 race, for days.  Absolutely unbelievable that such a thing could happen twice in the lifetime of any of us citizens, but it is, repeat, is, a distinct possibility now, for the second time in twelve years.

[Bo]

Nice timeline, anvikshiki. Here's hoping for an Obama victory.

[anvi]

Nice timeline, anvikshiki. Here's hoping for an Obama victory.

Thanks, Beau (and Snowstalker)!  We'll see...!  

[tmthforu94]

Amazing election night timeline - one of the best I've seen. Good job!

[anvi]

Thanks, Tmthforu!  The latest results coming up quickly!

[anvi]

2:46 am EST, November 7th, 2012

We have another call to make in the race for the White House tonight, and while it is not a decisive call, it is another monumental one.  We can now project that the 9 electoral votes of the state of Colorado will be captured by president Obama.  The state had been trending narrowly the president's way for the last few weeks, but the margin narrowed somewhat tonight, based on good, solid returns for Daniels in Arapahoe, Douglas and Mesa counties.  But in the end, Daniels simply wasn't able, despite excellent efforts here, to overtake the president's margins in the Denver and Boulder areas.  With 96% of precincts reporting, we project that when all the votes are counted, Obama will probably win about 50.6% of the vote to Daniels' 48%.  Let's update our electoral map now, with only two states left to determine who will win their electoral votes.

Obama          266
Daniels          253

The Indiana governor is now in a truly do-or-die situation in his bid to become the president of the United States.  The president is only 4 electoral votes away from reaching the magic 270 vote mark, and winning either Nevada or Virginia will do that for him.  Daniels can still emerge the victor in this truly incredible race tonight, but he must, absolutely must, win the states of Virginia and Nevada.

Now, as we noted a while back, we have not received any vote updates from Virginia since our last report, but Daniels is awaiting results from precincts in three counties in western Virginia where he is expected to do well.  He currently trails the president by a shade more than 1%.  Now, if he can make that up, either by overtaking the president outright and winning the Old Dominion, or even by shaving the president's lead to a margin of 1% or less, he would secure the legal right to request an automatic recount and see if he could prevail in that recount.

But none of this, and this is how crucial president Obama's victory in Colorado is, none of what happens in Virginia will now matter of Daniels does not also win Nevada.  Because of the importance of tonight's vote, in view of the fact that this economically troubled but proud western state could single-handedly decide who the next president of the whole country will be, precinct officials are keeping their totals very close to their chests, we have as yet to get recent updates from the state.  The count we received from Nevada about an hour ago showed president Obama with a 5% lead, but at that point, only 51% of precincts had reported, and there was still no information on the very crucial Washoe county in the northwest and limited totals from Clark in the southeast.  We have a long way to go in Nevada.  But it may be fair to say at this point, and this is not a prediction by any means, but only a characterization based on what we know at this hour, that Governor Daniels is desperately trying to stage a come-from-behind victory in a hairsplitting close race, as president Obama knocks at the door to his own second term as president.

[anvi]

4:30 am EST, Wednesday, November 7th, 2012.

We are not far from dawn on the east coast, the day after voting day in the presidential race of 2012.  It was at this minute, Virginia precinct officials promised us, that we might see some of the hugely anticipated light shed on whether president Obama or Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels would prevail in their contest in the Old Dominion.  Get ready for some dramatic figures, and here they are.

As of our last update about two hours or so ago, these were the vote totals we had.

Obama         1,861,248        49.6%
Daniels         1,810,683        48.3%

Difference         50,565          1.3%

This was with about 1% of Virginia's vote going to third party candidates.  Now, confirmed several times by precinct officials and from multiple sources, are the final tallies from the three outstanding counties of Montgomery, Washington and Buchanan.

Montgomery County:
Daniels     21,696 (52.8%)      
Obama     18,779 (45.7%)    
Other:      599 (1.5%)

Washington Country:
Daniels:    16,376 (67.1%)        
Obama:      7,639 (31.3%)    
Other:             391 (1.6%)

Buchanan County:                  
Daniels:      4,654 (53.2%)        
Obama:      3,963 (45.3%)    
Other:             136 (1.5%)

Governor Daniels did well by any standards here, he outperformed John McCain from four years ago in Washington and Buchanan and won Montgomery by a healthy margin, a county the president won four years ago.  Now, adding these totals to the forgoing statewide totals, we get these numbers, figuring in percentages of total vote and weighing them against the state's aggregate 1% vote for other presidential candidates.

Obama:      1,891,629      50%
Daniels       1,853,439      49%
Other              37,448        1%        

These totals, with 100% of precincts now reporting, would ordinarily permit us to project that president Barack Obama wins Virginia with its 13 electoral votes and is reelected president of the United States.  BUT...BUT, look at these totals again!  With gains in these three counties, Governor Daniels has moved to just a fraction of a hair of within 1% of the president, and that does legally entitle him to request a recount in this state.  Now, Governor Daniels' campaign has quickly released a statement, just as these numbers appeared, to all the networks and on its official website, that it will consult with its legal team and follow the necessary Virginia statutes that would permit the candidate to request a recount.  On top of this, these results have not been certified, that process will take two days, that is, as of now, till Friday, to recheck with the precincts on all these numbers.  We are therefore not, repeat not, going to color in this state just yet, we are going to wait for more extensive statements by both campaigns and by Virginia state officials before we declare any winner in the presidential race.  All we know at the moment is that Virginia has not officially declared any winner, and Governor Daniels is not in any way conceding this race.  Therefore, our electoral map remains:

We are still at 266 electoral votes for president Obama, 253 electoral votes for Governor Daniels.  And, take very careful note!  The state of Nevada is still colored green on our map, it has not finished counting its votes, and should it definitively go for the president, all of this incredible tenseness about Virginia would become, from the standpoint of the final result, irrelevant.  If Obama wins Nevada, he will win his second term.  If Daniels can pull off Nevada, we still have a long and tough road ahead of us, which could last as little as a few days and as long, according to Virginia law, as until six days before the electors meet in December to decide who will get its electoral votes, and with them, the presidency of the United States.  

The presidential election of 2012, at 4:35 am the day after voting is still too close to call, and we have, as of yet, no president-elect.